Tour de France 2017 15h

[Robyklebt]

The Donkey will start.

The team:

1 E. Zipoli. Leader, 89 mountains. The goal really would be to go for stage wins, but with that little TT and 89 mountain (but maybe downtraining? Let's hope not) I'll most most likely have to go for GC.
2 S. Almeida: flat helper, 86 flat.

Then kind of undecided:

3 V. Babic: 56-78 with 43 reg, kind of useful as a battery.
3 A. Farkas: Oldish, but 48 reg, downhill, but happily downtraining. Reg useful, mountain? Not so sure, but need to study the profile more.
3 or 4 E. Kaniuk. Sprinter, he's there for sure, just the number isn't decided yet. Depends on who of the other three around him starts. It's a very sprinters friendly Tour, so doubtful he can get a stage, but he's still useful as a battery in the mountains.
4 N. Kashiwabara. 46 reg is what Donks likes about him. Mountain not superb, but kind of ok.

Then sure again:
5 M. Nganang: Cameroun champion, in a very hard race he dominated the other guys. 88 flat, always useful.
6 J. Sax: 74-79, the only classic there to help Zipoli and Uppdal.
7 S. Tazlauanu: 58-80-75, 51 reg, clear that he's here. The 60-80, although he misses 2 points for 60. Which would be useful. But the reg helps anyway.
8 A. Uppdal: 87 mountain. He is pissed off, he didn't get to ride the Tour de Suisse. Helped Zipoli selflessly in the Giro, expected to be paid back in the TdS. But no, he wasn't allowed to start. He demanded to be co leader here, but no again, he's only no 2. But if ZIpoli doesn't train well or the opportunity is there he can be upgraded to co leader.
9 S. Vienuolis: 62-79, will be 23 so training. The plan was to have him debut at the TdF, but forgot about the NC, so he rode there and then another race. Here he'll be no 4 in the mountains.

As I said, original plan stages with Zipoli obviously, but expect to be in the GC fight. But it's the Tour, so less important than the Giro. On the other hand I hope for a more convinced GC battle than at the Giro or the TdS so the motiviation that for the moment isn't really there will hopefully come once we get under way.

Hope for at least 10 teams!!

[team fl]

Team FL in the mix too! Most important guy: Hugo Marxer. As usual. Anyway, some riders should be involved too, so here the most likely line-up so far:

x1 Nodirkhan "Khan" Kadyrkhanov, GC leader and leader in the mountain stages. Conqueror of France?
x2 Feliciano "Centurio" Centurion, leader for the easier middle mountain stages.
x3 Dong "Dong" Dong, helper with the possibilities to escape
x4 Kenneth Low, helper with the possibilities to escape
x5 Ngo "Go" Nguyen, leader for the flat stages
x6 Serhei "Hei" Pascenco, helper with the possibilities to escape
x7 Omar "Penis" Pene, leader for the harder middle mountain stages, last and most imporant helper for Khan.
x8 Samir "Salami" Sellami, flat machine for the final 10 km
x9 Pavel "Paul" Sitko, after PC at the Giro, he's leadout sprinter for Nguyen.

Still worth a thought:
- Oleg Ogorodov: Smaller and cheaper Version of Dong, but also less Reg.
- JungGi Kim ("KJG"): Could improve the sprint train for the flat stages. But only 35 Reg. Or instead of Sitko.
- One of the youth rider that join Team FL at the 1 July. But it's too early for them most likely.

Goals: Khan will go for mountain stages and GC while Nguyen is the guy for the bunch Sprints. Besides that, Team FL will try to be as much online as possible, be active and have fun. And waste a lot of money...

[Liquigas-CND]

Hi all,

Team Liquigas-CND will ride TdF 15 H with the following line-up.

No goals set so far. I won't make any presentation for each rider cause i would not have much to say.

Hope it will be a nice tour with good participation!

[Robyklebt]

Go to the morning, keep avoiding Zipoli. Much more fun than having you vomit around the place for 3 weeks.

[team fl]

So we have Big Donkey, Team FL and Liquigas-CND riding in the afternoon (the only real TdF). Besides that, so far Team Anobrain and minots are registered too. I guess there will be more after the afternoon one day race has started. But let's have a short look at the contenders:

Big Donkey: I guess it will be all about Zipoli winning the GC and most likely some mountain stages in the process. As helper in the mountains, Uppdal could also have his chances for chasing his own goals, depending on the standings. If Kaniuk is there, he's the man for the Sprints. And as there are some more challenging sprint stages during this tour, he could have decent placements in the shadow of the GC-fight.

Team FL: Kind of an allrounder team this time. There is Kadyrkhanov for the mountains and GC, Centurion and Pene for the middle mountain stages as well as Nguyen and Sitko for the bunch sprints. But the team could get the problems of a jack of all trades: beeing master of none.

Liquigas-CND: Despite his statement that he hasn't set any goals so far, it should be clear that Pugliese and Salazar fight for mountain stages and the GC, with the help of Muller and Escobar. The Team is very focused on middle mountain and mountain stages as also the rest of the bunch - except Kovacevic - have a mountain skill of 56 or higher. And there is still Genovese looking for placements in flat stages and maybe even better chances for a stage win if there is a reduced sprint. But My guess would be that we'll see a lot of Liquigas-CND riders in escape during this TdF-edition.

Team Anobrain: Sold the sprinter armada for Diaz, Mcarthy and Mellini. So ist pretty clear that Diaz will be his GC leader and leader for the mountain stages with the help of the other two. And there is still Gabriel Vaz who could be interested in redused bunch Sprints, although there is a lack of good flat riders with a mountain skill over 50. I guess Team Anobrain will also be in the escape a lot, although its riders could get some serious energy problems due to a generally low reg skill.

minots: A French Team with less than 64 races, which I don't know much about besides the naming of his riders. The Team has the best time trialists among These five Teams. Besides that, it doesn't offer very much. Depending on other contestants, his two young climbers, who cleary are not well developed, could fight for the youth classements.

[Tukhtahuaev]

Most likely also here. Most of the team is decided already with these 7 riders having a safe place in the team

Eli Kanuk
Samat Beisebekov
Lasse Mikkelsen
Hiroshi Yasumura
Branko Elez
Ignacio Techera
Milorad Kosanin

[Liquigas-CND]

With Lula and Tukh is going to be a much stronger field!

Would be nice if Luques joins too.

[Bugatti]

Hi, i will be there too

hope it will be a nice tour.
My Goal is the White. Lets see if i can do this.

See you tomorrow

[Liquigas-CND]

My Goal is the White. Lets see if i can do this.

See you tomorrow

I believe it's quite difficult for you not to win white

[luques]

Also Luques probably here, at the moment seems more probable than the morning. Will not have much time nor a good team so basically don't really get the sense of inscribing, but somehow guess it has always sense to inscribe to the Tour.

Anyway, see you tomorrow in case.

[Atletico]

Hi, Atletico Lula start here!

[team fl]

So we have Big Donkey, Team FL and Liquigas-CND riding in the afternoon (the only real TdF). Besides that, so far Team Anobrain and minots are registered too. I guess there will be more after the afternoon one day race has started. But let's have a short look at the contenders:

Big Donkey: I guess it will be all about Zipoli winning the GC and most likely some mountain stages in the process. As helper in the mountains, Uppdal could also have his chances for chasing his own goals, depending on the standings. If Kaniuk is there, he's the man for the Sprints. And as there are some more challenging sprint stages during this tour, he could have decent placements in the shadow of the GC-fight.

Team FL: Kind of an allrounder team this time. There is Kadyrkhanov for the mountains and GC, Centurion and Pene for the middle mountain stages as well as Nguyen and Sitko for the bunch sprints. But the team could get the problems of a jack of all trades: beeing master of none.

Liquigas-CND: Despite his statement that he hasn't set any goals so far, it should be clear that Pugliese and Salazar fight for mountain stages and the GC, with the help of Muller and Escobar. The Team is very focused on middle mountain and mountain stages as also the rest of the bunch - except Kovacevic - have a mountain skill of 56 or higher. And there is still Genovese looking for placements in flat stages and maybe even better chances for a stage win if there is a reduced sprint. But My guess would be that we'll see a lot of Liquigas-CND riders in escape during this TdF-edition.

Team Anobrain: Sold the sprinter armada for Diaz, Mcarthy and Mellini. So ist pretty clear that Diaz will be his GC leader and leader for the mountain stages with the help of the other two. And there is still Gabriel Vaz who could be interested in redused bunch Sprints, although there is a lack of good flat riders with a mountain skill over 50. I guess Team Anobrain will also be in the escape a lot, although its riders could get some serious energy problems due to a generally low reg skill.

minots: A French Team with less than 64 races, which I don't know much about besides the naming of his riders. The Team has the best time trialists among These five Teams. Besides that, it doesn't offer very much. Depending on other contestants, his two young climbers, who cleary are not well developed, could fight for the youth classements.

And the list goes on:

Tukhtahuaev: Eli Kanuk has not a second climber beside him, but has the company of Beisebekov, the arguably strongest classic rider in the group in the mountains, at least uphill. Also the rest of the classic armada does not look bad at all. Besides that, Yasumura looks intriguing for the sprints, not only in the completely flat stages but also in stages where a reduced bunch sprint is possible.

Bugatti: And here we have Schuler, possibly the strongest rider 24yo or younger and hence the big favourite for the youth classement. He will be supported by von Säckingen, another young climber. Pitroipa could be an option for flat stages while his support case might also survive some hilly parts for example Weickum.

Luques: Could have a strong sprint train for Furov. Looks like that will be the main focus besides escapes and some action with Alkaev in the mountains. The team looks good for it's purpose, not having to ride in almost any stage except flat stages maybe. This leaves lots of opportunities for harder stages and the team could have some decent riders with a good reg skill in the line-up.

Atletico Lula: Karanka and Duliano will be the duo for the mountains and the GC, supported by Fothen and Sanchez. While during the Giro, the leadership was not clear among the two climbers, at this years Tour de France, it should be Karanka, as long as nothing surprising happens. Sanchez could have good chances in middle mountain stages while for the flat stages, Peltola and Tejera go for placements. Anyway, if the team acts as during the Giro, it will provide lots of action anyway.

[Robyklebt]

Zipoli the favorite here. First time a Robyklebt/Petit Singe/Big Donkey is the favorite in a GT! Let's see how we handle the pressure. And let's not forget that Uppdal still demands to be allowed to ride for himself.

[team fl]

And it has begun! Stage 1 was a clear case with the two time trialists from minots beating everybody else. Regarding GC, all interesting riders are still within less than one minute of time gap among each other. Stage 2 then was a sprinters stage, as expected, with very little action before the little hills around 40 km before the finish line. In the end, it was Nguyen who was the luckiest of them, now in green as leader of the points classement, while Mcarthy from Team Anobrain took over the mountain classement so far.

So Rapido Minots is currently wearing the maillot jaune. That may change already today, but most likely after stage 4. Anyway, here's the favourite check:


General classement:

***** Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey)
**** Orlando Zalazar (Liquigas-CND)
*** Alarico Karanka (Atletico Lula)
** Lucas Duliano (Ateltico Lula), Aasmund Uppdal (Big Donkey), Eli Kanuk (Tukhtahuaev), Nodirkhan Kadyrkhanov (Team FL
* Luis Diaz (Team Anobrain), Igor Alkaev (Luques), Kevin Schuler (Bugatti), Abrogio Pugliese (Liquigas-CND)

Points classement

*** Hiroshi Yasumura (Tukhtahuaev)
** Ngo Nguyen (Team FL)
* Vadim Furov (Luques)

Mountain classement:

*** The one who wants it
** another one
* a surprise rider

Youth classement:

*** Kevin Schuler (Bugatti)
** Alexandre Minots (minots)
* Fridolin vonSäckingen (Bugatti), Luca Brunner (minots)

Team classement:

*** Big Donkey
** Liquigas-CND
* Atletico Lula

[Tukhtahuaev]

I would put Karanka and Salazar on the same level. Better support for Salazar, but downhill and reg give Karanka an advantage.

Would have put all 3 Sprinters on the same level, but as I just saw that real points are going to be used from now on, I'll have to agree that Yasumura has slightly better chances.


Main target for this year is to finally win a stage at the TdF. Chances should be a lot better than last year, where the team had just started out

[luques]

Thanks for giving Alkaev a star

[Liquigas-CND]

I think Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Uppdal chances are underestimated while Salazar chances vice-versa.
However, I see Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Salazar fighting for 2nd place if Uppdal decides to ride for Zipoli but the question is if Zipoli needs Uppdal help...

Guys like Diaz, Alkaev, Schuler, Pugliese and Kanuk may have their chances but only in case of big mistakes (at least 2-3) done by favo/s.

It's going to be interesting since the next training may play an important role.

Hopefully in this field there is no "Bellorz" pulling a "Mosquito" so obvious several times

Grazie!
Liqui

[team fl]

I think Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Uppdal chances are underestimated while Salazar chances vice-versa.
However, I see Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Salazar fighting for 2nd place if Uppdal decides to ride for Zipoli but the question is if Zipoli needs Uppdal help...

Guys like Diaz, Alkaev, Schuler, Pugliese and Kanuk may have their chances but only in case of big mistakes (at least 2-3) done by favo/s.

It's going to be interesting since the next training may play an important role.

Hopefully in this field there is no "Bellorz" pulling a "Mosquito" so obvious several times

Grazie!
Liqui

So you rate Kadyrkhanov's chances as high as Salazar's, ALTHOUGH Salazar having the better mountain skill, the same TT skill and the better team in the mountains. I guess it must be the manager then that makes the difference .

[Liquigas-CND]

I think Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Uppdal chances are underestimated while Salazar chances vice-versa.
However, I see Karanka, Kadyrkhanov and Salazar fighting for 2nd place if Uppdal decides to ride for Zipoli but the question is if Zipoli needs Uppdal help...

Guys like Diaz, Alkaev, Schuler, Pugliese and Kanuk may have their chances but only in case of big mistakes (at least 2-3) done by favo/s.

It's going to be interesting since the next training may play an important role.

Hopefully in this field there is no "Bellorz" pulling a "Mosquito" so obvious several times

Grazie!
Liqui

So you rate Kadyrkhanov's chances as high as Salazar's, ALTHOUGH Salazar having the better mountain skill, the same TT skill and the better team in the mountains. I guess it must be the manager then that makes the difference .

I would rate Karanka with 4 stars due to high reg and downhill. I would rate Salazar maybe with 4 stars mainly due to 2nd climber help and 2*72 classics.
Then I would rate Kadyrkhanov with 3 stars+.

Of course your or mine ratings may be wrong but due to Giro experience Kadyrkhanov should be at least rated with 3*

[Robyklebt]

2 stage wins, Donks very happy.
GC... of couse the favorite has to be Zipoli. 89 mountain with 87 helper, 51 TT (for the moment) But not automatic either.
Problems could be:
-Downtraining. And of course the Donkey is scared of that, but first one survived. Next one on the 12th
-Downhill: Only 2 more mountain top arrivals Peyragudes and Izoard. There of course Zipoli has to win time. In other stages downhill important, that's something he doesn't have too much of.
-Team: Only Sax as classic. If it was the Giro the oldie Garita would be here. But it's the Tour, so no need for Garita, Farkas (good decision to bring him, not sure why I even thought about it), Tazlauanu and Vienuolis will just have to work harder and try to come back if we're ever in trouble in front.
- Sprint: In sprints the others will get the bonifications normally. Not Zipoli, and not Uppdal either.

Zipoli already in yellow, good. 21" to Karanka, that's already more than the expected loss in the TT. which is 12" or so seconds? The problem now is defending and extending that.

Opponents: Karanka has the spirit. Salazar the helper. The problem is that as happened today everybody is on everybody, won't be easy to make big differences for the challengers between them either. So Kanuk, despite his downhill and reg weakness, Khadyrkhanov and to a lesser degree the others are not out of it.

[team fl]

Today is the first rest day of this year's Tour de France, time to have a short review on what happend so far.

The ITT was a clear case as only minots brought some time trialists to Düsseldorf. After that, the upcoming flat stages were sprint teams territory and the fight between Nguyen (Team FL) and Yasumura (Tukhtahuaev), both with to wins up to this date. In the fight for green, it's not that close unfortuantely as Yasumura is much better skilled to grab points during harder stages. The other stages were mainly dominated by Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey), who is the big favourite for the GC anyway. Only yesterday, Eli Kanuk (Tukhtahuaev) could outsmart him (and Kadyrkhanov, grrr...) in the sprint for the stage win.

So while points and general classement seem to be decided already, or at least in big favour of the Teams currently wearing these Jerseys, the youth rider classement is even more boring with Kevin Schuler having a free pass. So what's still open? The mountain classement. Although Liam Mccarthy (Team Anobrain) leading with 16 points in front of Eli Kanuk, there are still lots of mountain points to collect on the way to Paris. Anyway, let's have a look at the current standings:

General classement:

01. 00:00 Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey)
02. 00:33 Eli Kanuk (Tukhtahuaev)
03. 00:41 Nodirkhan Kadyrkhanov (Team FL)
04. 01:27 Orlando Salazar (Liquigas-CND)
05. 01:35 Alarico Karanka (Atletico Lula)
06. 01:38 Lucas Duliano (Atletico Lula)
07. 01:52 Aasmund Uppdal (Big Donkey)
08. 01:57 Luis Diaz (Team Anobrain)
09. 02:04 Abrogio Pugliese (Liquigas-CND)
10. 02:16 Kevin Schuler (Bugatti)

Points classement:

01. 243 Hiroshi Yasumura (Tukhtahuaev)
02. 184 Ngo Nguyen (Team FL)
03. 110 Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey)

Mountain classement:

01. 054 Liam Mccarthy (Team Anobrain)
02. 038 Eli Kanuk (Tukhtahuaev)
03. 037 Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey)

Youth classement:

01. 02:16 Kevin Schuler (Bugatti)
02. 04:35 Fridolin vonSäckingen (Bugatti)
03. 08:59 Alexandre Minots (minots

Team classement:

01. 00:00 Liquigas-CND
02. 00:32 Big Donkey
03. 01:54 Tukhtahuaev

Stage wins by riders:

3 - Evaristo Zipoli (Big Donkey)
2 - Ngo Nguyen (Team FL)
2 - Hiroshi Yakumura (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Eli Kanuk (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Rapido Minots (minots)

Stage wins by Teams:

3 - Big Donkey
3 - Tukhtahuaev
2 - Team FL
1 - minots

[Robyklebt]

FL faster, good less work.

Anyway, GC so far Zipoli. Stages too. And the Donkey feels he's in a much better position than expected. Especially the last 2 days worked out perfectly, almost couldn't be better.
Stage 8 the Donkey expected a biggish group. And was ok with that, let the group go through better than losing 10-6-4" to 3 guys. Attacks with somebody then having a relay station in front not a big worry on stage 8, so let the group go. Group never went. Tukh made it clear that he wanted the intermediate sprint, Lula stopped his solitary attack, later a lonely Bugatti went.. so for the win, which meant Zipoli. A bit surprising, I think with a block on the and some cooperation later he could have been caught. Problem is only 1 can win, so nobody wanted to sacrifice himself. Good for the Donkey.

Stage 9 then was fantastic too. For the Donkey. Even though he made at least 2 doubtful decisions. The big worry: Big attacks with relay stations. So was clear that Farkas (most likely, but maybe Tazlauanu) had to follow the attacking Karanka. Who indeed attacked. But Donkey forgot the time, was still eating Indian food when the race started. No safety guy in front, big problem. Next Lula sent classics, and then in the Grand Colombier Duliano. Had it been the leader Karanka.. .huge problems, since the Donkey rode quite badly there, no following.. and if Karanka plus a Liquigas go there, they go they get yellow. Not by a huge margin, but they get it. But only Duliano went, so smaller problem. Vienuolis and Sax kept the difference acceptable Zipoli did the rest. Dropped anybody but Kanuk, waited for Khadyrkhanov who wanted to ride the downhill, then Zipoli rode the flat, with some help in the beginning. 45" to the rest. Very weird stuff though. Karanka clearly didn't have fighting on, so was dropped and spent the whole climb chasing in tempo. Probably cost less energy then fighting in Zipolis wheel, ok, but here IMO would have made sense to fight, and stay with ZIpoli, like Kanuk. Even weirder Liquigas. 2 km from the top Pugliese dropped, the nominal leader Salazar waits?? Keep him in front, if he stays on in front we try the deal with Liquigas-RTD. Do the downhill, ZIpoli does the rest and since he can't sprint that means stage is almost sure to be between Salazar and Kanuk.. .like it was with the 2 who stayed in front.
Anyway, so far Zipoli has profited a lot from passive opponents. As in the Giro Lula tries. At times. Liquigas on the other hand ultra-passive, waiting for? Nobody knows.
Flat stages very controlled too, result, so far 3 teams have basically dominated. See FL. Luques is expected to win a sprint sooner or later, if he can be online. minots should win the last TT. So Bugatti, Anobrain, Lula and Liquigas are the ones that I'd expect in the escapes quite often, hasn't really been the case.

Anyway, GC Zipoli has a quite confortable advantage, considering the expectations too. But of course one bad day can cost lots of time, but for the moment the 2 guys he needs to control most are Kanuk and Khadyrkhanov, surprising, thought would be Karanka and Salazar.
Yasumura, yeah, looks very good for green too, didn't think would be that clear at this point either. But like for Zipoli, one bad day and it can look different. Forgot to sprint or anything.

[Tukhtahuaev]

It looks like no one believes in his chances to beat Zipoli and everyone focusses on the positions behind him. Lula with an alibi attack yesterday, but that's it.
GC not over yet, but Zipoli only beatable, if the Donkey makes a mistake or a lot of guys work together against him.


I'm extremely happy with this first week. Hoped for a Top 5 finish with Kanuk, now second place is a real possibility. First doesn't look likely though.
Yasumura also great. Expected to be beaten by at least one of Nguyen and Furov almost every stage with a chance for green due to points gained in the hills. Now in a perfect position to get green, but can't relax yet as Nguyen could gain a lot of points if he wins the remaining flat stages.

[Robyklebt]

Kanuk beats Zipoli, grrr. But in the end still a good result. Double attack at the bottom of the Peyresourde, Kanuk tries and manages to follow Zipoli, Diaz didn't manage, nobody else tried. Pugliese and Alkaev on Uppdal. So 1' advantage immediately. Which held til the end, the others attacking in the back instead of riding helped. In front a few other attempts to get rid of Kanuk, didn't work, he then won the sprint easily. But with 1' gained on everybody but Kanuk. Pugliese and Alkaev, still satisfied.
29" Kanuk
2'09" Kadyrkhanov
2'13" Pugliese
2'37" Alkaev
2'44" Salazar
3'03" Karanka
3'06" Duliano
3'09" Uppdal
3'25" Diaz
3'29" Schuler

Kanuk has 2 less TT than Zipoli so despite it being only 29" no need to panic, keeping the advantage would be enough. The rest is far back, which gives me some room. Can lose some time to some guys on some days. Just not too much. And there guys in the back being all very close together could somehow play in my favor too. First goal: Control Kanuk. 2nd goal: Keep everybody else as far away as possible.

[Tukhtahuaev]

This is going too well. Almost impossible to gain the remaining time on Zipoli. Normally Zipoli wins easily, but Kanuk is not going to give up.

Green looking very close now. Furov needs to win the stages so that Nguyen only gains about 20 points on Yasumura there. Very difficult for Yasumura to gain more in the hills.