Sulawesi 14h

[Robyklebt]

The ape will start here. Will need starting sitters on thursday I think, but ok, can live without them too most likely...

The team

1 Primoz Groselj: He'll be here to figure in the GC. Not really sure how well, final course analysis not done, but suppose he won't be favorite... good, he can attack. If there are attackign stages

Rest unnumbered:

Patricio Bochini: There to help and escape and help
Narcisse Arsène de Pellevoisin: There to organize, to help and escape and help
Abel Tasman: There to be there and see if he can sprint for a stage win
Coolboy Zibi: There to amaze the opponents with his TTT skills

Those 5 sure. I think at least.

Very very likely:

Gaspard Trenteseaux: Likely, he has TT, so more likely to fill the slot for "classics in development (or refusing to develop) than Ikthiyor.

Possible
Michael Creek: sprintstar
Whitcliff Ford: flat power and Creek-help
Tatsuya Hara: Minimal flat power, reg, Creek help, Asian representative, mmh, pretty good chances
Zhores Kopelyan: Making it a double climbers team
Gaston Lajeunesse: GT Debut, training for the Giro
Hanspeter Peterhans: Flat power, Creek help
Yordan Tabakov: Flat power, Creek help

The Creek problem of course is the lack of a Mollagholipour, Peterhans, TAbakov, Hara and Ford are all weakish in the climbs... but Creek plus 2 of those is very possible. Actually the secret plan I didn't want to divulge here.. pff. Other option Zhores, or then just 3 of the flat guys without any further leader...

[team fl]

Most probably, Team FL will start here too. Don't know what for yet, but I am sure Hugo will find something to fight for.

Anyway, the line-up will look something like this.

- GC Leaders and for mountain stages there will be Eddie Sixpence and aging Roy Lichtenstein. Both not top shots in their categories, but still worth a nomination. Besides that, there is nobody else in the team for this job...

- For hilly stages and a helpers when it's a bit more up and down we have Jan Flachbart and Lars Hirschfeld. We hope that the latter will still develop his skills a bit, esp. in the mountain sector.

- For sprints, although there are only 3 or 4, Joe Friesenbichler and/or Martti Rosenblatt will be responsible. Still not sure about taking both of them.

- And then there is the huge amount of helpers: For sure it will be Tomasz Kowalski attending, important for the TTT with his skills. The rest ist still open, which means either 2 or 3 places, that could be filled in by Benni Büchel (best TT skill of them), Ariel Weisman (good reg), Arunas Paulauskas (good... whatever) or on of the Pavéstars: Smedins or Wahlforss for some more flat power.

- Riders like Banzer, Fargas, Antiga or Bienvenu will enjoy the December tour in front of the TV, preparing either for retirement or the second half of December, hopefully with not many downtrainings.

- And then there is only Desideriu Vatca left who will train as hard as he can to be nominated for other races in December. But with his Reg, and his age, he's not a candidate for the line-up (yet).

So in the end, Team FL will be quite expensive with an average team and high expectations for everything.

[Alkworld]

Team Alkworld also there in the afternoon. This time for real

The following riders will hopefully find the way to Sulawesi:
- Sancho Panza - first time as captain, but feeling a bit alone
- Martin deGüemes - aka Veggie-Martin, will most likely act as helper for Sancho
- Francisco Santander - old, but still good
- Nicolas RodriguezPena - young, but already good
- Federico GarciaLorca - still a decent sprinter
- Jaime Roldos - another really old chap, but still a good TT rider
- Manuel Azana - future classic winner, strategical mastermind of the team
- Jose Zorilla - future TTT star
- JuanJose Castelli - the best sprinter in the line-up

[Robyklebt]

Looks nice, looks nice!
Even though I was hoping to be able to engage FL as a part time sitter for some stage starts.... Andes he should have started, not here. But ok, he's welcome here too.
Ape goes analysing the stages now, setting forms, then the line up should be already clear.

[Robyklebt]

Form set, team finalized

1 P. Groselj
2 P. Bochini
3 M. Creek
4 T. Hara
5 N. de Pellevoisin
6 Y. Tabakov
7 A. Tasman
8 G. Trenteseaux
9 C. Zibi

Whitcliff Ford and Spartaco Poggi though will fly to Bitung too (in case Bitung has an airport...), as reserve riders in case we have some trouble with doping controls or similar stuff.

[el Galactico]

This time i will be there.

1 Alejandro Salazar - mountain leader, fight for white looks bad with Alk and Ballantines in
2 Constante Girardongo - leader classic stages - 1 race, 1 win for the team. has to get to know the rest better
3 Benoit Vaugrenard - second classic rider / helper for Sala
4 Thiago Fuser - TTT leader, escaper
5 Eduardo Sandoval - helper / some escapes possible maybe
6 Miguel Irrarazaval - leader of the sprint train
7 Ivan Curkovic - TTT & TT leader / oldie and right hand of the manager
8 Adriano Carioca - flat rider
9 PJ Diaz - sprinter

Actually number 6-9 can still change. Depends on the developement of the salary. A cheaper version with Eliseu and/or Monterey is still possible.

[Ballantines]

Hello, guys first message for me in this forum

I'll be there too at 14h even i will miss 1 or 2 stages. Climber tour is new for us, we more used to ride flat/hills race so miss practise in mountain, tt, ttt, reg gestion but this tour is a good way to learn (to be honest i came first on forum to find topic on tt ^^)

Young Sean Norris will be the leader for gc, and will try to get youngjersey. Morgan Daniels here too as first helper for Norris and maybe to try stagewin.

Rest of the team will be here to protect leaders and maybe go in groups: Rinaldi, Ferguson, Kelly brothers, MacAllister, Borcherd and Murray.

Hope to have fun with you, see you tomorrow!

[luques]

Uhm Uhm Uhm Luques maybe here maybe not, tomorrow decisive day... Still don't know between 14h, 18h or 20h...

If I will play here I will probably miss tomorrow and the last Sunday grmpf...

[luques]

Ok probably here.

Today from Bitung to Manado, the man of the day is: Robert Wolter Monginsidi, national hero. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Wolter_Monginsidi)

We will start from his road on Bitung

See you!

[bergwerk cycling]

Anden schon verpasst ... ich wäre auch hier so gerne gefahren,

bekomme es aber auch jetzt zeitlich wieder nicht auf die Kette = schade.

Euch viel Spass.
bw

[team fl]

I am too ashamed to post my line-up here... horrible, horrible...

[team fl]

Bah, stupid Kowalski. Hesitated to go full tempo. Anyway, both GC-Leaders, Eddie and Roy, still in the game. Yellow for the Birdybeer rider Yuri. Red for the Lavella guy, as well as white. Who cares. Rest is unimportant. Let's go for real stages.

[Robyklebt]

Schade ohne BW, aber ok, wenn du keine Zeit hast. Hättest sonst wohl die Anden gewonnen, und hier auch mit guten Chancen.. .so halt nicht...

Today: First stage with the expected escape. Thought about sending Narcisse too actually. IN some groups I would have for sure, but well, finally didn't. The TTT then... Ballantines and Los Galacticos started strong, already giving all probably, at least with some riders... I never know if that could be a good tactic... like use 3 of the weaker riders at "give all" and the others "no", then Alk changed 2 km before I did... gained 5", then slowly coming back, had some troubles finding the right settings though, for a while didn't gain anything... while FL came back, then found it and it was 1" per km to Alk, nothing lost to FL who was 2" back. Last 4 km, at -4 we go to +3" then the 2 slightly climbing ones back to only +1", last km Zibi alone, same tactic as the Andes, here it worked. Kowalski in the back was held back by Hugo, good man, if he did the full risk too.... same time or it stays at 1"... ufff.

3" to FL, 10" to Alk now. Luques 1'01". That's the 4 "big favorites". After today maybe Luques gets a minus. But Alk a +
Alk will win some time on every mountain top arrival, not sure how many there are... won't go and check. Time and bonifications. The TT.. there reg will come into play, which is + for Groselj and Vasilyuk. TT skill Sixpence good too, but the reg the problem there... Lichtenstein has the sprint bonifications for him... mmh.

Panza: + mountain top arrivals - reg, - TT. Team good enough to control. The stage after the TT as well. Martin can take the TT slower.
Groselj: + TT reg. - only climber in his team.
Lichtenstein: + bonifications in some stages very likely. + 2 options in the team. - 2 options in the team
Sixpence: +TT - reg +/- 2 options in the team
Vasilyuk: + TT, because of the TT and the reg. - no team for him really

That's the riders of the 4 "main favorite" teams before today... others of course not chanceless either, but would say smaller chances then the ones mentioned above.

Salazar: Defended himself much better than I though today. TEam not superb, Salazar not really superb mountain skill either, but can train, he's only 23. Good TT and reg though 25" back
Norris: 32" back, 24 years old and already 85 mountain. His big weakness: the downhill. Not weak enough to be siebed there most likely, but weak enough to be attacked and lose time. TT a weakness too. And he has the great Morgan Daniels as helper.

Out I think
Regazzoni, no reg, but with the sprint he could have done some bonifications picking. But Falke decided to go for yellow now with Yuri. Probably the right decision, he would have lost time today anyway.
Vainikka: Here for stages I think, right decision too probably
Forsberg: 57 TT, but a fairly unexperienced manager, so was really an outside shot anyway, now with already 1'52" back he's out I think.

[luques]

Good Good, first stage is gone.
Thanks to the sitter.

Should be here surely till Friday, Saturday a big ?

Seems really an open tour, no Hubers so Alk seems to be favo, but pay attention to the FL Duo!

Weather looks terrible, high temperatures and high umidity, there will be many weather variations during the same stage, today we also ended with the sun!

Next 3 stages already difficult, Groselji defending the yellow!

[Robyklebt]

Groselj doesn't have yellow, he's 12' back. And he has no intention of defending "virtual yellow"... yeah, think these 12' will be taken, even if it will take time. Yuri with 54 isn't a bad rider, and not that many "big time gain" stages around. But think he will be caught. But when he will, I'll most likely not be the first in the GC anymore.. so I'm not defending anything for the moment:) And even with yellow I wouldn't be defending too much I think, too early for defending.

[luques]

Groselj doesn't have yellow, he's 12' back. And he has no intention of defending "virtual yellow"... yeah, think these 12' will be taken, even if it will take time. Yuri with 54 isn't a bad rider, and not that many "big time gain" stages around. But think he will be caught. But when he will, I'll most likely not be the first in the GC anymore.. so I'm not defending anything for the moment:) And even with yellow I wouldn't be defending too much I think, too early for defending.

Grrrr he understand it...

Singe work in peloton!

[Alkworld]

After Luques really tortured us here with heat, rain and a long stage before the also long TTT, I'm surprised (or maybe not at all?) that the GC cleared up so fast. It looks like being down to five teams now: The expected Alk, FL and the apes, Luques a bit back and Falkenbier (Spatzen- / Falkenbier / -berg / -sirup) with Yuri now. Although I'm pretty sure that 12 minutes can easily be recovered during this tour. Everybody else tried everything to kill their riders for the TTT or never had big chances anyway.
About the favourites, the ape already said it all, each of the three top teams has a small advantage over the others and it's still a bit hard to predict how this will end.

[el Galactico]

I think my time trial yesterday was quite good. At the beginning just the weak ones gave all. Later on my stronger ones. Lost just 15 seconds to de Güemes and won 8 seconds against the mountain rider of Ballantines. So at least kept chances the chances to fight for white. Today then a very good day with the stage, red and white for Thiago, which he hopefully can defend for a while.

My big favo for the tour is Sancho Panza with the best mountain skill + 2 good helpers. They regain the advantage which Groselj has with the good reg. TT skill is just slightly different. FL with 2 climbers has maybe the best tactical situation and Sixpence can also win some time in the TT. But with the hard weather and long stages there are plenty of options for everyone to win this tour. But if nothing spectacular happens my guess for the Top 5 looks like this:
1 Sancho Panza
2 Eddie Sixpence
3 Primoz Groselj
4 Andrey Vasilyuk
5 Roy Lichtenstein/Sean Norris/....

[team fl]

Almost everybody in this thread seems to forget Martin deGüemes. The guy is still young an able to gain one or two mountain points during the tour. That could mean that also Alkworld will have two options for the GC, not only Panza...

[Alkworld]

Almost everybody in this thread seems to forget Martin deGüemes. The guy is still young an able to gain one or two mountain points during the tour. That could mean that also Alkworld will have two options for the GC, not only Panza...

It's not the mountain points that matter, but the fact that Sancho Panza just loves his role as a helper

[Samurais]

SAMU STYLE FTW ^^.

[Robyklebt]

COOLBOY ZIBI!
Ok, Patricio Bochini won, but the hero of the day was Coolboy once again. After giving the team the TTT in the Andes (and with that the GC to Groselj), the TTT here, he escorted Bochini to a stage win today.
But really was too easy. I arrive 40 minutes or so too late. A 4 man group in front, not riding. And the group really to heterogeneous to be able to work well. Narcisse siebs, then chases, in front Black with the clear stage favorite rides a bit, then stops... just ride a bit longer and... I give up. But wasn^'t ready to invest much, just try.. So Narcisse gets the group, Zibi and Bochini attack. Roldos comes from the back... rides 2-3 km after some begging by the ape stops... .ok, not sure if he was going to stop anyway... thanks for letting me as co GC favorite go anyway. But unlike the others at least I invested something, didn't expect to just be allowed to win without investing energy. Final then... Zibi still there, and gained energy in the downhill... mmh, so let's give him a chance for the stage and tempo.. but Bochini, who was the plan for the stage was too strong and crossed the line first anyway.

GC: Second day Black rides against Sancho.. without a good reason really. Yesterday with regards to Groselj his help or non help IMO made absolutely no difference, I think I'd have ended where I did anyway. Today without Black good good good chances for Sancho to go through in third place and gain 4" bonifications plus the advance... Especially since Groselj tried to follow him. Without following even if I was optimistic before the stage, after have to admit probably still wouldn't have gotten him.. .Sancho goes at 13, wins lots, he won 4" against Ilkka at 9, so 5-6" to Groselj I guess, at 13 even more, probably +/- 0 at 9 then, then losing a bit, but not enough to catch him I think. But ok, with FL and me both really in it at least until the stage after the TT, of course he has 3 guys against him in the back. It will become clearer after the TT and the stage after. No clue how Alk will ride that. Lose little time on the TT, start weakened but hope to minimize the loss to Groselj and co the next day? Minimize or keep at 0. Or go slower in the TT, lose time and then start gaining time the next stage? Hoping that the new leader, then has him AND FL or Ape against him, like he has both of us against him now? We'll see... until then really not too clear how this will develop actually.

Anyway a Bochini win, very nice, even if it's really a win in the Andes 12 style.... a present, I'd rather win after fights, but if nobody tries...

[Alkworld]

I guess I'll surprise myself in the TT and the day after next week Then it will at least be a surprise for everyone.

[team fl]

Can I buy ~20 to 29 Regpoints for Sixpence please?

[Alkworld]

Can I buy ~20 to 29 Regpoints for Sixpence please?

six pence would be a bit cheap for that many reg points ..