Pavétour 2013, 15h

[Robyklebt]

JOIN

Right now only 7 teams... one of them the notorious multi ornyorny/delfini, this time he is sorry. More serious teams are: Petit Singe, Quick, Gaurain, Vagaderi, Liberty Lula and Cordoba

Atypical pavétour, with the mountains.. so it's not really important to have x strong pavériders. Just the right ones... and not sure how strong he actually needs to be on pavé.
Stage 1 is a very easy pavéstage, with only 1 *** every x km time losses for weaker pavé riders should be minimal.
Stage 2 is a very hard flat pavéstage: lots of 5 and 4, here depending on how it's ridden weaker riders could lose a lot. But.... it's highly highly highly unlikely that somebody like Willy V of r/Quick 85 pavé, yeah, but 49 mountain... Same for my top pavé riders, the highest mountain skills of them is...54. Gaurain the same, everybody the same so far. So, nobody really will normally have an interest in eliminating potential GC guys from other teams... be it 65 mountain with 76 flat (who wouldn't lose that much anyway) or be it 70 with 72 or so pavé...
Stage 3: Lots of siebkilometers before the final hard pavéstretch. Mountainsiebkilometers. Here classics will be there. Is almost more a classic stage with pavé than a pavéstage with hills.
Stage 4: Here some pavésiebs possible, but very far from the goal, and the one sector that is closer, is "weakened" by having a 6 shortly before... the decision will be the final, 3***6*** to be done 3 times.
Stage 5: The decisive stage, with loong pave sectors. But.. normally the flat guys shouldn't be there anymore for siebs in the last flat ***** sector, too easy to drop guys like Willy or Villa before that. Lots of mountains, pretty long ones. So.... siebs there will likely be by weaker pavé guys, and a fit 70-72 guy could not be dropped, depending on how weak the weaker guys are.... Talking about the sectors around km 160. Long mountain, not pavé, then the long last sector, which is up and down...

What I'm saying. No need for a super pavé team, actually IMO a team with lots of classics, is probably the best option here. Suffer a bit on stage 2, but after that should get time back. So... don't just look at Willy V. and the 80 Singes. And Gaurain... join, it's really pretty unpredictable and open.

The Apeteam

1 N. Buttu
2 B. Gong
3 T. Häfeli
4 F. Mollagholipour
5 H. Peterhans
6 P. Scodreanu
7 D. Sekiguchi
8 V. Villa
9 Z. Yamada

Goals, try a stage for Villa... but Willy doesn't really make me too confident for stage 2. And stage 1 might actually be too easy to have a big advantage... meaning Yamada, Häfeli, Mollagholipour can't drop anybody far, lots of people might come back, some might be better sprinters... 3 stages after.... leader will be decided later, but the guys with less than 50 pavé won't be it (unless really strange stuff happens) So.... JOIN, it's more of a 60-80/classic tour with lots of pavé than a pavétour IMO.

[gaurain rx]

Oh yeah, Pavétour, I finally found a solution, ok not the best, it costed me 1.685.000 but it seems still ok. So lineup :

1. Charles TImonier : Leader, mmmm, or not, I'm not sure, it's him or Vrunethen. A bit weak in pavé actually!
2. Franco Delponte : The old guy, pavé leader. Last big race for him normally. Or not, maybe he wants to stay for February.
3. Tomas Dépucelle : Classic without downhill, again one. There cause he has to, reg horrible, downhill horrible. Dunno how I'll use him.
4. Matthieu DeRoy : Young sprinter. Really cause I have nobody else if I don't want to spend 40k more. So well, sorry Matthieu
5. Yannick Frognet : Interesting guy. Strong flat, good sprint. He could be a great leader on the flat stages.
6. David Jaret : 37 years but still usefull guy. Who knows what he can achieve here. But he should be an helper, not a leader
7. Marissa Lopard : The American bitch is on her way again. A bit tired after EAT but ready to give everything for the team.
8. Jean PetitJean : Cousin of the former Jean Valjean. Will be there to learn and to "decrease" the cost.
9. Terence Vrunethen : He could be the leader if Timonier fails or if I have a revelaton during the night.

Cost : 411k, a bit too much when you see that I have 3 total useless rider there!

Oh yeah, and the team will have to defend the leading in div 2. It will be a though ob!

[Robyklebt]

Bah, only 8 teams

And: sorry=ornyorny etc
Liberty Lula has lots of "MULTI" fairness votes as well, not sure who is is accused of being a multi, but doesn't sound too inspiring anyway to see x "MULTI" votes in his history....

Favorites, very easy. pepsi, every day, for everything and always. So nothing more to write about that, even if of course it then will be the awesome apes to win every day...

[Robyklebt]

Victor!
Lucky, lucky, and highly parasitic at the end.
Loading.. wasn't perfect, 1 wasn't enough to keep everybody at 1000, but ok, 990 good enough so each one gets one. And Mollagholipour and Daiken half at the start while I was thinking.... later all Sekiguchi, but was thinking quite long. Then, Buttu in tempo and at first Villa gets no helper... grrr... not ideal. should have been Häfeli (since he will pass anyway) or Daiken (already less than the rest and don't reeally believe in him) Group in front not all that dangerous, the second to last pavé: Sieb, all apes gone, of course no fighting yet, saw no sense in it, lots of teams would be trying to get back anyway, that's what happened. Mistake to ride with Yamada though for 1 km, shouldn't have, do nothing and wait for Fariborz and Daiken in the Gaurain-Moscow express. They come, ok, Fariborz helps... 20" back. And there I kind of like the situation, For Daiken, not for Villa, but Daiken definetly. Ride with Fariborz, get a bit closer to the first group, then Yamada and... Daiken stays with Timonier pretty sure. Don't think there was a super pavé man there to drop him. And.... since he had everything there, he would continue to ride, Daiken losing little... in front.. well, attacks of course after the pavé a danger, but with Yamada-Daiken probably around 20" again back after the next sieb... Häfeli waits with riding, and see if he and Villa follow the right ones...
But, damn r Quick decided it wasn't perfect for him that way either... so stopped... pepsi too, or slower so all back... Fariborz in to cover.. .no. Sekiguchi follows possible attackers, Yamada on the same guy, would have been all right with me, then in the right group. Of course followed the wrong guys.. probably the pepsi I had had already made tempo. Many others had the right one, and Moscow had attacked the same km too. Big group with 30" advantage. Not hopeless to get it back, but still grrr. Without Daiken, argh. So... Sieb by Willy in the last pavé, my guys in front.. 1 km tempo Häfeli, ok, this doesn't make sense. Let's wait for Quick. And Gaurain is so close, wait for him too. And... behind him is Daiken, so let's wait for Daiken too and then make tempo. Big mistake: Yamada didn't drop immediately, Daiken was just 2?" behind the Gaurains... maybe Yamada immediately and he can come back? Not sure, but maybe... but ok, didn't think they would continue, thought more all would stop once in front, exception r Quick, GC, stage and in front Henriet had really no chance. But Gaurain continued full power... bah, argh, no Daiken then. But.. .no work in front. Then, Henriet did what he had to do, attack in front. Weaken the group and the second pepsi for tomorrow. And Moscow not following, bad... good actually, not follow there made sense. So then it was pepsi in front, Moscow 2" back, group at 23". Next km, group at 20" gettable. Then still winning at this rate, Moscow a mistake by attacking with his sprintguy, just make 1-2 km tempo with him and you have them in front, but good, weakened again. Second attack by Henriet in front, Möve not following, so no Kagran riding...Around 4-5 km from the end Häfeli finally went in . But that Kagran stronger than I thought 8"-5"-4"- 3 km.... ? Something like that. Yes alone didn't work either, mass worked better, even if there was a bit less now. Last km Willy joins, and gotten. Thought even with Willy probably only 2-3"... but no, all. And he didn't kick out of tempo anybody either.. strange. Sprint, Victor on the right wheel, changed from the wrong one when I was pretty sure it wouldn't be the sprint for the win. Won clearly. Yeah! Anway, I didn't do much at the end, almost nothing, got carried to the finish line basically... but worked in the beginning at least. so all ok.

GC: After today at least the leaders are clearer for those that didn't really have a clear one. In my case not 100% clear, since somehow I doubt I have the team to do much in the GC with Sekiguchi. Might still change back to Häfeli or Villa... At least Fariborz is now 100% out And Buttu.. but that was clear after the last training. Otherwise... not too much pavé, but reg, not too much mountain, but reg... why not try that.. .ok ok, I have nobody for the GC, but now it's Daiken or Häfeli (Villa has reg, mmhh..)

Anyway, the leaders:
pepsi: Löwe. Strong everywhere, strong top pavéteam, weak weakest helpers, weak mountain team
r Quick: I would go for Dragostiniu. Although no downhill and no reg might make Willy the leader after all. Like me he doesn't really have the perfect leader...
Gaurain: Timonier, pretty clear I think
Ape: As I said, Sekiguchi or Häfeli or Villa. Problem with the flat guys is that they are weaker everywhere than the main opponents. pavé, reg, mountain. At least Sekiguchi is top (ok, almost) in the mountains... .
Kagran: Montel, clearly.
Moscow: Jamieson, really nice rider! A possible RVV Roubaix double guy! The team good too, very good mass at 76 pavé, and some mountain support as well.

Favorite still pepsi, but with Kovar one guy could already be under reg. 3 Attacks + followings, some km tempo... 38 reg IMO not enough, but I'm often wrong, so let's wait and see.

[Robyklebt]

Willy with the win, was kind of expected too. Ape another few helping highlights today, but didn't really matter. Fariborz once he got to helping went to help Scodreanu... .nobody knows why really, but ok. Daiken didn't fight when I thought I put it in, sometimes just thinking something doesn't seem to be enough. So dropped, he could have stayed a bit longer. But nothing much changes in the result, Villa-Häfeli did what they could, Villa keeps green a day longer, yellow gone, would have needed some very strange stuff for him to keep it.

GC down to 4?
Willy
Möwe
Jamieson
Timonier

Jamieson should be under reg tomorrow, but probably not very much.

Willy has 24" to defend now to Möwe and Jamieson, Timonier further back. The 3 potential ape leaders... Villa 24" back too, yeah.... Häfeli 36", Sekiguchi 3'32".. mmh, I guess Sekiguchi is out:) But well, that's the problem with having Villa in the team, didn't want to fully protect Sekiguchi, then he normally would be much closer. Maybe not with Timonier, but not far behind... But Villa yesterday clear I had to try... today after Seki already lost time... wasn't worth making Häfeli and Villa helpers for him really... Might go for Villa leader now? The problem with that is of course that he's weaker than Willy everywhere, so kind of mysterious where I want to win time, but we'll see.

[Quick]

Willy smells his chance... ...for green. :/

[Robyklebt]

Willy vs Jason for green!

And pff, I'm the only one who believes in his own GC chances, but I'm the only one who by now is out of the yellow hunt. Grr

pepsi=doesn't believe in it really. Yesterday no block attempt, ok, he wouldn't have come back, but probably would have lost less with Jason. Who actually now has chances too. Today attack instead of a sieb try. So what if Jamieson follows? Which isn't sure btw And if he follows not bad either, since he could have helped in the downhill.

r Quick similar, doesn't seem to believe in his chances. They are there. pepsis problem is that he has no team for the main strength of Möwe, the mountain.

Gaurain doesn't believe in Timonier either. OK, me not fully either, he is a clear outsider of course. But doing well enough, we'll see what devilish plans he still has

Moscow: Mmh, at least somebody who doesn't say he's an outsider! Good!

Apes: Sekiguchi did well today, he overtook Lopard in the GC! Villa and Häfeli lost 14" since in front it was weakening opponents by attacking time again. Bad for green of course. Which now is basically lost. Bah, had small hopes for green after yesterday, but ok, maybe I'll go for the MW now. Hihi, dominating after today!

Win by Peterhans, He and Gong both attacked after the first pavé sector.First Peterhans killed himself, then Gong took over. Actually it was closer than it looks... Gong-Peterhans couldn't have been much faster. And the peloton couldn't have been much slower:) Just a little bit of tempo, or a double attack by Kagran when he went with Alvarado... and I'm done, couldn't increase the spead really. Ok, in retrospect could have a little bit, Gong although under 100 is closer to 100 than 0, but a double attack by Kagran there and... I'm caught. He took back 5' riding green and sometimes not riding at all with Alvarado.. If he rides red with Alvarado I'm already nervous... if there is a second guy I'm done. But... that's why Gong needs to be in the escape, he's the specialist of these gifted-win escapes, 2 in the Andes, now he was there again, but after a short consultation with Gong the team decided to let young Peterhans take the stage. He won't have to many chances to ride for himself in the future, letting him win the stage now will give him a moral boost and make him even more motivated to give his best for his leaders.

[Moscow Team Pro]

Whatever you do to finish it was a beautiful ride, tactical fight. 'm Just sorry to see that probably (apart from that of 10, with Alkworld and FL) rounds of the other times were lower quality and not just our own. We would probably have won the round in many if we had going on in other times. but that's just my opinion.

[Robyklebt]

Mmh, not me, don't think I would have won more in any other group! 2 leaders with such different skills just too much, especially on day one where Villa had the chances for the stage, and so needed the fit helper, Häfeli. That would have been the same in all groups. And I can't complain anyway, 2 stages, dominated the Team classification. This ape is great
Today interesting. Good attack by Moscow on top of the hill. That's actually what he had to do, only place where he can maybe get rid of Möwe. Of course the idiot of the day there was the ape who didn't even try to follow. Not sure it works, but should have tried. Willy in the back defended it easily finally, still 8". He won it on day 2 finally, there if Moscow had ridden in the group behind Willy immediately... with Häfelis help (riding for green chances for Villa) he'd have lost some seconds less.. .but then probably today there would have been less or no cooperation in the end from Möwe... so ok like this I guess. Intereting last day. Frustrating for Villa-Häfeli, but I knew that would happen. Still interesting in front, the fight between Möwe-Jamieson-Willy.
Gaurain clearly the loser of the tour though, No jersey, no stage (Have to take advantage of it, if for once I win more stages than him in a tour, happens once a year)

[Moscow Team Pro]

THE REPORT CARD OF MOSCOW

PETITE SINGE: 7 [/ b] you take a step of rightness and of experience that brings with it also the teams. Is lost in the choice of leading betting on Villa who is a man of classical and not giro.i his interludes are still a lot of fun. intoxicating
GUARAIN RX: 5 [/ b] around anonymously. Leader is not effective, never misses the moment to bring something home. It seems shy, and he always expected something. Stunt double.
PEPSI: 6 [/ b] the pavé-team scares but does not sting. Won a stage and Mowe is on the podium, but ... with four runners over the 80/pavé seems really little. SHY
RQUICK: 9 [/ b] Willie is a monster but the team is super. Today no two soldiers might have lost the jersey proud. But he has them, they know how to use and take home a stage, the green and the Giro. greedy
[color = # FF0000] MOSCOW: 7,5 [/ color] [/ b] takes the ride as a training and milestones as a test case. Experience on slopes and varying degrees of pavé, use the team to see the seal. He decides to try and deservedly won a stage, the white, and a podium. investigator