The fake Tour, eh, post Giro criterium, real, eh, afternoon anyway 15h (likely)

[Robyklebt]

The Donks is first here, I'm sure the non-starter Bergwerk stealing the opening post for the Giro was the reason for Payot's failure.

So here, Big Donkey will start:

The 12 riders pre-selection:

C. Blake (flat sausage, pavé star in training)
L. Ceroni (60-80 in training)
B. Gurruwiwi (flat star)
R. Henri (flat star in training)
G. Lekubarri (super classic with 76 flat)
M. Magritte (flat rider, pavé star in training)
G. Payot (climber)
G. Rrurrambu (sprinter)
U. Steiner (climber)
L. Trutat (almost super classic)
I. Vanuytsel (60-80 in never ending training)
E. Verkerk (hill sprinter)

So 12 heroes, to be guided by Short, Drinkwater and Huizinga to countless stage wins and the GC win.
Actually the 9 starters are already fix really, but since with Covid, doping controls and crashes we're not sure that we'll be able to start with the 9 planned ones, we post the whole list that we sent to the organizers. Whoever guesses the 9 starters will get a +3 on the first stage! (Or the 2nd, 3rd, at the latest the 4th, since I'll be mobiling from Sapporo on stages 1-3)

[team fl]

Team FL will be at the AGF-Criterium! The team management just isn't really sure about the line-up yet. It looks like it will be the usual suspects though with Clévenot as GC-leader, the three classic stooges Junatorena, PrzPszcz and Ventura. Grün and Godoy, the GG brothers are essential too with their Reg skills. Then the sprint deparment around Frits and Pierluigi. But will Vogt be there? Or Forte? Or Sprenger? Or somebody else. Well, it may look like this:

x1 Clément Clévenot
x2 Frits Flaskjaer
x3 Gunther Grün
x4 Gilberto Godoy
x5 Julio Juantorena
x6 Pierluigi Piano
x7 PrzPszcz
x8 Vitor Ventura
x9 Volkmar Vogt / Spiridon Sprenger / Fiorino Forte / Holger Hässig

Goal the same as a the Giro: Waste lots of money, who cares.

[bergwerk cycling]

but who is Payot?
Sorry ... This year i am out.
But wish a nice tour and maybe i will be a sitter on the one or other stage

[C.Pommes]

CreditPommes also at the start.
Again with a pure sprint Team.
OK Maybe Klaas now better in the hillsprints lets see.

1. Marcel Meisen
2. Klaas Polters
3.Ignacio Sebredo
4.Oliver Bailey
5.Harvey Grey
6.Florian Fichtner
7.Dan VandenBerg
8.Yoshua Vosman
9.Mylan Ippel

Maybe 1 or 2 changes till the start, lets see.

Goal is a Stage win and to have fun.

[flockmastoR]

I set form for the Tour, still unsure if I can/want to ride it. This year no problem with holiday but more with time/motivation.
Unlike the Giro, I can think about starting here without Volta, maybe even without a climber at all. When I bought Chau, he was planned to be the leader here after the big Volta triumph at the Giro, but he is now still at 84 mnt and doesn't look like a decent leader. So going with Chau as a helper for Tesla who will most likely downtrain and not play a big role against the classics/GC teams? Going for a team around Iwachnenko just to annoy Frits? Hm help me out please. I have the following options ranked with my current estimation of likeliness:

1) no start
2) Volta, Tesla, no Iwachnenko
3) Chau, Tesla, no Iwachnenko
4) Tesla, team around Iwachnenko, no climber

[Robyklebt]

5) The one that makes most sense really.

[flockmastoR]

5) The one that makes most sense really.

[Robyklebt]

5) Volta, Chau, Iwachnenko, no Tesla

[CircleCycle]

will also set form, but lack of motivation...
Team is clear.
Hill, Park, no Elfenkönig

[team fl]

Am I getting it right that we are only three teams in the afternoon and everybody else is chickening out due to Guillaume in the mountains, and Pommes Frits (!) in the flat?

[CircleCycle]

The Donks is first here, I'm sure the non-starter Bergwerk stealing the opening post for the Giro was the reason for Payot's failure.

...... Whoever guesses the 9 starters will get a +3 on the first stage! (Or the 2nd, 3rd, at the latest the 4th, since I'll be mobiling from Sapporo on stages 1-3)

No Blake, no Henri no Magritte...

Payot - Steiner - Lekubarri - Trutat - Verkerk - Ceroni - Vanuytsel - Gurruwiwi - Rrurrambu

[Gipfelstuermer]

Am I getting it right that we are only three teams in the afternoon and everybody else is chickening out due to Guillaume in the mountains, and Pommes Frits (!) in the flat?

Pretty sure there will be more than 3 teams ! My estimate is we should be around 10 teams.

Our Italian train Cotrufo - Carluccio - Mosconi (once successful at the Giro) plans to compete in the sprints. Even though the rest of the team will hope for breakaway wins !

Who will be there in the rest of the team? The other 6 riders? LBL winner Medina and his Colombian compatriot Rubiano should be in. Suisse classic rider Perucca would also make sense.

So then 3 spots open... To be chosen from 8 domestiques in the team... One guy is out easily Frederick with 35 reg... so 3 out of 7.
- If we go by past successes, Paris Roubaix winner and 2x Ukrainian National Champion Pavlo Poulnikov should be there. But being 36 and having only 43 reg speaks against him. At the same age Outschakov has the same problem. Kind of old. But 57reg.
- If we go by flat skill, Kemp and Laeser should be there with 87 flat each. Would be nice if we had a pure sprinter, but less relevant for hill sprints. Even though they both would be nice escapists, too, with 52reg each.
- If we go by mountain skill and ability to organize hill sprints, our Danish dynamite duo MeylandSmith and Meyer should be there. One high reg, one low reg. So if we think about escapes, Meyer with 60 reg a good choice. MeylandSmith more tricky with 39reg, because he can never really recover if he was used once.
- If we go by salary, Schmalen should be there. He finished the Giro, he is cheap as hell, 45reg is acceptable. Good guy. Will our 36 year old Ukrainians be cheap in July, too ? Cheaper than they used to be... but cheap not really...
So. 3 out of 7. Difficult choice.

Edit: Can we give the thread a proper title for the biggest cycling race in the world?

[team fl]

Edit: Can we give the thread a proper title for the biggest cycling race in the world?

Maybe the biggest, but clearly not the best. I think the title fits well, for the only real, eh, afternoon edition .

[schappy]

Most chances to start here without chances.

#1 Lena Oberdorf - Maybe a stage, but the Team-Manager are an Idiot in this Game.
#2 Anastassija Merkuschyna - Helper for what ever
#3 Kathy Hendrich - 74-79, so maybe some good Situations
#4 Jill Roord - Classic Helper
#5 Julija Dschyma - New 21y Talent
#6 Nadija Belkina - New 21y Talent
#7 Kevin Krauthmann - Flat guy, maybe some Excapes
#8 Merlin Barbe - Name says everything
#9 Marcel Pfeifer - a Sprinter, but a Pfeife

Salary 438k, much less then Giro, but Tour is much less worth then Giro.

[Bright]

.

[flockmastoR]

no tour for me again this year, have fun, hope there is an interesting group to watch from time to time

[CircleCycle]

The Donks is first here, I'm sure the non-starter Bergwerk stealing the opening post for the Giro was the reason for Payot's failure.

...... Whoever guesses the 9 starters will get a +3 on the first stage! (Or the 2nd, 3rd, at the latest the 4th, since I'll be mobiling from Sapporo on stages 1-3)

No Blake, no Henri no Magritte...

Payot - Steiner - Lekubarri - Trutat - Verkerk - Ceroni - Vanuytsel - Gurruwiwi - Rrurrambu

Was wrong there, even when for some time I thought Payot might indeed be not included in the lineup.

2 changes in the linup for the CC's to the Giro:

Eldenkönig, replaced by Delaunay.... 67 mountain, 64 sprint and 36K cheaper in salary.
Johnny Firpo, replaced by Nils Holgersson.... 2 more mountain, younger, more reg and Johnny the weakest of the 60-80s , a logical replacement too

Hill - Fanha - Delaunay - Park - Holgersson - Micalizzi - Gronbech - Ch. Firpo - Mayr....

Ok-Team, could be better if I searched the transfer market a bit earlier, Fanha + Delaunay clearly the weakness compared to the other classics. Chances for gc? Probably not worse than for the other Mountain riders, so 20%-25%?
Goal is of course as always to win a stage with Hill, Park and one other rider. Today Gronbech won out of a km1 escape, very good, 1 down, 2 to go.

Favo check, somebody else please

[cataracs]

So you're calling this tour where the peloton ends up 14 minutes behind the "real tour"

[team fl]

So you're calling this tour where the peloton ends up 14 minutes behind the "real tour"

You're just jealous . And it's not the "real tour", it's the only real post Giro criterium .

Anyway, what a weird weekend. Had in mind to dominate both the first and the second stage. Unfortunately, my not planned absence on Saturday opened the chances for some morning vibes in the afternoon. But nothing special, everything still "real", it happend. Still, the result was an escape landing arouond 14 min before the GC favourits. But I think, that adds some flavour to the first week. It also is an indication of what's to come: Lot's of attacks, active riding, action, fun.

So we have Gronbech as leader for the moment, although his team manager has already been mentioning Paris as the goal for wearing yellow. And he's up for it, when he anticipated well and managed not to lose any time during stage 2, where Team FL dominated, eventually. No family issues, no distraction (actually, there was at the beginning of the stage, but thats details).

Now the fight for the sprint begins. Park, Mosconi, Polters vs. Zalweski, Flaksjer, Meisen, Rrurrambu and Meier, only Credit Pommes with the luxury of having a sprinter for both options with Polters and Meisen. But somehow it looks like Giro sprints all over the place again.

One of the most interesting findings though is the absence of Payot. The french climber missing the Tour de France was not something to be expected. But it looks like Big Donkey sees a better fit for Swiss climber Urs Steiner. Wonder how Payot thinks about that. Without him it's hard to really find a five star favourite amongst the GC riders. L RSV has a nice duo, but no strong support cast. Same goes for Hill. Local hero Clévenot is not known to be a good GC rider and Urs Steiner has not key domestique for the mountains. Anyway, after two stages, everything in the classements is still very open, so not too late for a little favourite check:

General classement:

***** Rotu Kiipeilijä (L RSV)
**** Urs Steiner (Big Donkey), Henry Hill (Circle Cycle)
*** Clément Clévenot (Team FL)
** Valborg Bruhn (L RSV)
* Héctor Mabchado (Cultural Salamanca), Lena Oberdorf (Schappy), Luis Sinisterra (Team ABC-Polsat)

Points classement:

*** Puma Park (CircleCycle)
** Any of the 90+ sprinters
* A surprise rider

Mountain classement:

*** Lena Oberdorf (Schappy)
** the one who wants it more than Lena Oberdorf
* a surprise rider

Youth classement:

*** Héctor Mabchado (Cultural Salamanca)
** Lando Norris (Team ABC-Polsat)
* Patinho Floren (Cultural Salamanca)

Team classement:

*** no idea
** really don't know
* stop asking

[schappy]

No Favo-Check from the big C4F guys??? (we ride it at the same time....)

I try something:

GK
***** Rotu Kiipeilijä,
**** Henry Hill, Clément Clévenot, Urs Steiner
*** Valborg Bruhn
**
* Lena Oberdorf

Only chances before the race starts, but thats a Favo Check. Rotu has best Mountain helper and best Sprint Skill of all Mountain guys, so he can earn some Seconds at the finish line. The other three have good Manager and good allround Teams. Hard to say which is the best at the end.
Valborg of Course only, if he isnt a helper. Lena only for my motivation.

Youth
***** Héctor Mabchado
****
*** Lando Norris
** Patinho Floren
*

Should be an easy game for Mabchado

Points
***** Puma Park,
**** Ilario Mosconi, Frits Flaskjer, Marcel Meisen, Nicola Zalewski, Vitor Ventura
*** Rotu Kiipeilijä
**
*

Very hard to calculate the stages. Park is the most intelligence rider for this.

Polka-Dot
***** guys who rides for
**** Rotu Kiipeilijä, Henry Hill, Clément Clévenot, Urs Steiner
***
**
*

[team fl]

Ha, you've just missed the favo check, but i like yours too.

[Weezel]

No Pedersen for youth jersey, tz

[team fl]

No Pedersen for youth jersey, tz

Well, make us regret our favourite checks

[schappy]

Ha, you've just missed the favo check, but i like yours too.

Your´s much more professional then mine. Teams is good after the Rider. I saw yours, when i send my, but then i dont want to delete it.

[Robyklebt]

5 days, nothing won....

3 days away, 2 days back pain, although today was ok, first race really fully concentrated, which didn't help. Like in the sprint a few days ago completely overjudged the ability of my riders.

Anyway, no Payot, despite wanting less salary than Steiner. And with 88 vs 2 other 88 he certainly would have better chances than Steiner.

But:
a) I'm back into money survival mode, spent a lot this winter/spring, no more 5 millions in the bank, it's earning it slowly time again. So cheap team, as often was the case in the past for the Tour. That means one climber.
b) Payot failed at the Giro. So Steiner Tour was much more likely than Payot even the day the Giro ended.
c) Payot got to ride Dauphiné, so 90% Steiner. If it was Steiner riding the June stage race, then ok, Payot is favorite for the Tour again, but since we rode the Dauphiné... Payot it was, Steiner it is here.
d) Downtraining by Payot: Rather irrelevant in my decision actually, it was 90% Steiner even before that.

Ok, finding out on the first of July that Payot actually wants less salary than Steiner made me think a little bit again, but it went down only to 87% Steiner.

Goals here are stage wins with Rrurrambu, classics and then GC with Steiner, he was always an outsider, even more now after 5 stages and not brilliant riding today. 5 stage chances already gone, was fairly optimistic about the first 5 days actually, didn't deliver at all.

Less positive for the next 5 days actually

Btw, after reviewing the stage, there was a team attack after all