Youth Market Inflation?

[Gipfelstuermer]

I am following the youth market closely at the moment, mainly for classics. What I observe is that on average 1-2 good riders (55-72-60 or better) are available and that occasionally there are really good riders (with high TT, Sprint or Reg). Currently teams are paying about 500k over market value for good riders. I have been in two auctions with more than 600k over market value. The number of teams bidding is often between 10 and 20. More or less the same is true for other types of riders, e. g. supply and demand are a little bit lower for mountain riders but that results in similar overpaying.

As I have seen some teams complain in the chat, I would like to ask the following questions: Is this the normal situation in the youth market? If not, is supply unusually low or demand unusually high and what are the reasons?

I am not proposing any changes here, just trying to find out how supply and demand are managed such that people enjoy bidding rather than being frustrated or complaining in the chat

[Robyklebt]

Problem? No problem!

How is it managed, actually not at all I think. Buhmann put on a certain number when the system first started, changed it, down mostly, until a balance that seemed right was struck. Since then there has been no change. Basically it's the interval in which riders appear on the market.

That was balanced out for a full and active D1-5, so actually way more teams than are active now, so if anything the prices should be expected to be low, not high. On the other hand due to the low number of teams, we all earn more than we would with more teams, so thanks to that we generally have more money available than expected, which pushes the prices up again. But overall I'd say the prices are lower than planned by Buhmann (negatively influenced by me and similar destroyers of the game of course) at the time. Right now maybe in addition to that a few teams sold all and are now rebuilding (Seibu, Skull might be doing it too) so they would have the money to overpay for popular riders, but it shouldn't really influence the whole market too much.

As for how incredibly and frustratingly high prices are: I pay 95%. I kind of seem to remember making a bid of around 100% once lately, but maybe just thought about it and didn't. For sure I don't remember more than one case where I might have bid more than 95% and might have gotten that rider for more than 95%. All other riders for the last x years: 95%. Ok, I don't buy very very good classics, they are hopelessly overpriced most of the time. The classics, ex classics and future classics I got now, were still ok though I thought, and 95% (one possible exception, see above) 55-71-74, 56-72-63, 54-73-76 (but TT, 69, which makes him less popular clearly) 54-73-68, 56-70-77. Not perfect ones, but good enough for me. And 95%

The complaining has more to do with the innate need to complain. If it wasn't the prices, it would be the positioning of an intermediate sprint in a race 5 days ago.

[luques]

Actually as Roby I don't see too much inflation in the youth market.
Yes there are few really perfect riders as 56-74-7x or 73-56-7x, but considering the luck factor of training you can often get the same final result by buying a 72-55 that you can often get for 95 or 100%.

[Pokemon Club]

Break some skill limit maybe ? People wait nice 56-74-7x or 73-56-7x currently, but depend how they want to train their rider, some people can be ok with 60-70, 69-60 or 64-65 too. Else if the total number of riders on the market won't change, they will be more type of riders at 21 yo, the demand for one type of rider specifically will decrease a bit so the prize will decrease a bit too.

[Liquigas-CND]

First of all, I think is normal not to have more "perfect skilled" young classics/climbers available at a certain time otherwise we'll all have perfect teams with 5-6 very good classics.

Regarding the number of bidders I usually place bids without even having enough money to buy that rider...just to see who buys that rider and for what amount.

With regards to so called "overpaying" situation I think it's only the point when the demand meets the offer so let the market to decide this point, it is not necessary to intervene artificially.

Gipfelstuermer probably does not have the patience to wait and ride enough races until he has the management skills to make more money and to afford the perfect riders he follows.

So Gipfelstuermer , why don't you focus on slightly weaker classics or whatsoever and stop complaining and being frustrated.

[Alkworld]

The "high" prices paid for classic riders just show, that their C4F market value for that type of rider is set too low (or that of e.g. climbers too high) . The high bids are not a recent development, but have been like that since the auctions were introduced. But even before that, when you could buy riders instantenously, you had to be extremely quick after a refresh to get the best riders. The classic rider that is now sold far above C4F market value then was sold within seconds after the TM refresh. Now at least everybody having sufficient funds has enough time to bid on those riders.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Gipfelstuermer probably does not have the patience to wait and ride enough races until he has the management skills to make more money and to afford the perfect riders he follows.

So Gipfelstuermer , why don't you focus on slightly weaker classics or whatsoever and stop complaining and being frustrated.

Impatience is a virtue, too

Hopefully next time I overpay for a rider Liqui wanted to buy

[Liquigas-CND]

You would not be the 1st one...