Dec Tour 2015 15h

[team fl]

What a start. TTT on Monday skipped probavly due to some drug cartell incident about the intermediary sprints and GPMs. So today hopefully everything works out well. Anyway Hugo Marxer prefers an armored car now for the whole tour. Nevertheless, these riders will ride it most bravely with unarmoured bikes:

x1 Breyten "El BreyBrey" Breytenbach
x2 Hassan "El Musulman" Dif
x3 Carlos "El Resplandor" Lampe
x4 Ignatz "El Magiar" Lichtenstein
x5 Otto "El Nativo"Ospelt
x6 Elwyn "El Buey" Oxley
x7 Robertlandy "El Cubano" Simon
x8 Carlos "El Carlito" Tejeda
x9 Barton "El Chupo" Zwiebach

Goal is not to get shot or murdered in another way. Mayb also not to get addicted (by sprint or mountain points chasing or whatever).

[team fl]

Short analysis of the teams that signed up for 15h so far (I won't write about my team though):

Big Donkey: One or two climbers? I'd go for two, Peixe (for youth classement) and Wassberg (for general classement). Very balanced team for the TTT. Will be one of the main conestants for the GC. Maybe even with Zygmunt?! For the stages, there could be Dahlerup and a nice pavé connection of Gfeller and Squarcialupi. Anyway, stars will be Ganguly and Faye, no matter if they ride the tour or not.

Bugatti: Maybe the main favorite with McCann and a good time trial team. Müller could go for hilly stages while in the flat stages, there will be either controlling or one out of Stiegler/Austin for some sprint money. And don't forget Troisi for the TT, if he's in the team.

Team darsseul: maybe he adds his comments about this tour in the "this forum"-section, who knows. Besides that, Michel seems to be the clear capitano for this tour, also for hilly stages. Besides that, Team darsseul could be the main sprint team in the peloton and has also a good line-up for the TTT.

Mercatone-uno: Riihivuori and Visconte the GC leaders I guess, as well as for the hilly stages. Besides that, there is not much to win out of the peloton, but a lot of Regeneration skill to join early escapes.

BMX Bycicle: Conti for president, I guess, Debroer for vice. Hamilton for first secretary, Hackelsberger as chief of staff, and the only one with a TT skill over 59. The team lacks of Reg, but I guess will be active during stages nevertheless.

Nash Team: Sprint team with a below average leader and only two riders with a decent flat skill = attacks, attacks, attacks. Will be fun to watch. Some old riders that are still interesting.

PG Force: Third sprint team in the peloton besides Nash and and darsseul, best mountain skill is 61.

Liberty Sarténe: 14 races, looks like a random team building. One climber, one classic rider, one sprinter, rest only below average helpers.


Conclusion: So it seems there are two main GC favorites with the Donkey and Bugatti, also regarding experience. Besides that, there are four teams with sprinters in the group and most probably lots of early attackers. Hope there will be at least 10 teams in the end, but 9 teams are not falling very short from that number, obviously.

Favorite check will follow after the TTT...


Edith adds Dead and Alive with Paillegrenier! That's a very nice development regarding the GC competition. A very strong team for this hilly terrain and also very well suited for the TTT, as well as the best time trialist among all GC competitors. And with Röntgen a very good rider for the hilly finishes. Reg is there too... so we have our tempo slave I guess

[team fl]

Well, it seems some prediction were wrong: Donkey without Wassberg, so Peixe not only YC but also GC leader. Bugatti without McCann, sadly, so a stage win chaser only I guess. Team darsseul with a pretty bad time trial result, as well as Dead and Alive compared with the Donkey. And furthermore, Dead and Alive only with a part of his classic armada for Paillegrenier, who is still in a good position for the GC due to his TT skill. So Bid Donkey not only with the biggest salary but so far also with the best team and TTT perforamce, consequently. Which leads directly to the favorite check:

General classement

***** Paillegrenier (Dead and Alive)
**** Peixe (Big Donkey), Grabkowski (Big Donkey)
*** Petri Riihivuori (Mercatone-uno)
** Eijun Sawaruma (Team darsseul), Manuel Cayatano (Team darsseul), Alina Schaaf (Bugatti)
* a surprise rider

Points classement

*** Louis Michel (Team darsseul)
** Preben Dahlerup (Big Donkey)
* Detlef Müller (Bugatti), Elwyn Oxley (Team FL)

Mountain classement

*** The one who wants it
** Another rider
* A surprise rider

Youth classement

*** Joao Peixe (Big Donkey)
** Lars Weigl (Bugatti)
* A surprise rider

Team classement

*** Big Donkey
** Mercatone-uno
* Bugatti

[Robyklebt]

Surprised too at Deads weaker than expected team around Paillegrenier! Elefant is an animal, but with no downhill and alone that will normally give me more chances than if he'd brought more classics.

[team fl]

Wow, Otto Ospelt surprised even me. But nice start after the TTT for Team FL. He's even in green for the moment. Also Ignatz with a very good sprint. I only hope that Barton and Robertlandy will be able to finish in time tomorrow. But chances are not that bad. Meanwhile in the GC... Paillegrenier, got back 3 bonus seconds for a successful intermediary sprint while Cesare Squarcialupi stole the yellow jersey from his team mate Grabkowski, who is now wearing red. Peixe still in white with good chances to be the third Donkey wearing yellow during this tour after tomorrow's stage.

[team fl]

Climber stage today and climber win. While Peixe was trying to gain time on Paillegrenier and Conti was too impatient, Leonard from Liberty Sarténe won in front of everybody else. In the GC, Paixe is now 3:40 min in front of Paillegrenier. On 2nd place, there is Riihivuori waiting with a 59 secs handicap but 6 time trial skillpoints more and 58 Reg. The mountain jersey wend from Grabkowski to Campbell from Bugatti with the nice attack before the La Madera Oeste and La Madera Norte. Points jersey, weeee, still on Otto's beautiful body, while Peixe also rules the youth classement, obviously. The team classement so far is lead by the Donkeys, which might only change with a succesful early group of GC-irrelevant riders finishing with a big enough time gap in front of the peloton.

[team fl]

Another flat stage, another miss for the sprinters. Even better, Lichtenstein won the sprint in the peloton, while Breytenbach was caught on the last km by his former group comrades. In the end, it was Scirea who did not only win the stage but also took the lead in the points classement from Ospelt, grrr... Besides that, not much changed in the GC while in the team classement, Bugatti is now leading after my prediction from yesterday came true.

[team fl]

So two stages on the weekend: on pavé it was Gfeller which could be expected, followed by Zwiebach. In the GC, Peixe could keep up on the cobble parts surprisingly, so nothing has chanced there. Yesterday was a bit more interesting with some hilly parts in it. In the end, it was a sprint for the classic riders in which Louis Michel from Team darsseul was the luckiest. Still, in the GC nothing has changed about the important placements. Also the other classements don't show and notable changements.

Today's stage micht have an effect though, as it is a 200+ km stage with enough hilly parts to try something and a rest day tomorrow. So, some riders will take that as an invitation to try something, I guess. At least I expect Nash Team to be in the escape again .

[Robyklebt]

Donkey of course so far very happy with how it's all going.
Win in the TTT, then gained lots of time in the mountain stage.
Defence so far has worked, even if I'm not fully convinced that defence is what I need, but in the stages that followed that really was the only thing to do.
Was really scared of 2 stages, pavé end and yesterday. Pavé end for Peixe, he hung on, yeah! And yesterday being offline.... but fortunately for me others were riding for their stage, from what I saw from the short apping sessions... not that I understood much of what was going on.
Gfeller with his stage then a huge bonus. His first win. And IMO not that logical, I wasn't going to ride for the stage really. Of course I hoped a bit for it... so tried not to let a BIG group go... but gave that up after a while.. except that by then the bigger groups didn't want to go anymore, so didn't ride. Weird. Then all together again, Nash went, ok, he can go... others rode again, 50 km from the goal I thought I go in and sacrifice Cesare, didn't think he'd do it really... he did a lot alone for a long time, some Umesao to weaken him, so that he could later guide Peixe if necessary... then just wait, attack with Quirinus, win. All went perfectly. So far... but long time to go yet.
Both Paillegrenier and Riihivuori are still very much in reach of Peixe, we'll know much more after the TT, whenever it will be

[Robyklebt]

Lost a bit more than I really hoped for in the TT, but Dead rode that well, I hoped for a 75%-85% battle, staying rather fit, Dead went for the limit, so I had to follow, and started the second stage with 678...don't think Paillegrenier had more. Actually in retrospect I'm not sure why I expected a low consumption TT by Dead, somehow now it seems that would have made no sense for him.
Worked out well for me though then in the sieb, like this Vargas and Grabkowski could follow, with a fitter Peixe they can't... and win less time. Too bad though there was no group in front, then probably I'd have won a bit more time, like this others riding for the stage logically rode in the back. But ok, probably not a big difference to Paillegrenier, but Riihivuori wouldn't have won the 6" he won... which I don't like too much.

Now Paillegrenier yellow, Peixe same time, but less points, so second, third Riihivuori 13" back. Peixe the favorite I think, but the 2 others not out of it yet.

[flockmastoR]

Lost a bit more than I really hoped for in the TT, but Dead rode that well, I hoped for a 75%-85% battle, staying rather fit, Dead went for the limit, so I had to follow, and started the second stage with 678...don't think Paillegrenier had more. Actually in retrospect I'm not sure why I expected a low consumption TT by Dead, somehow now it seems that would have made no sense for him.
Worked out well for me though then in the sieb, like this Vargas and Grabkowski could follow, with a fitter Peixe they can't... and win less time. Too bad though there was no group in front, then probably I'd have won a bit more time, like this others riding for the stage logically rode in the back. But ok, probably not a big difference to Paillegrenier, but Riihivuori wouldn't have won the 6" he won... which I don't like too much.

Now Paillegrenier yellow, Peixe same time, but less points, so second, third Riihivuori 13" back. Peixe the favorite I think, but the 2 others not out of it yet.

very interessting TT halfstage stuff.
was starting pretty fast in the TT 85% for at least half the stage, then 100%. As you said, a low TT doesnt really increase my chances, I need to win time in the TT on you, and even than it's easy for you to take back time. Don't know what power level I was after the TT but in your area I think. Today started with only 890 which was even worse but I dont know if I lost energy due to the sprint bug yesterday, feared to lose time on grabkovski and other classics. Better not risk anything and save place 3. Probably my team will have easier stages now, but fear you will just continue and I will be furious on mercanto not bringing his helpers back.

[team fl]

Three stages left, today probably the last stage for a GC attemempt as the last two are flat stages. But who knows. Anyway, it seems that Peixe is in the best position to win the GC in front of Riihivuori after Paillegrenier lost his yellow after the TT again and is now two and a half minutes behind Peixe. The rest of the group should have anything to do with the GC win anymore, but again, who knows, esp. as the Big Donkey still seems to have these moments that make him sweat a lot afterwards. Peixe winning the GC would of course also mean winning the YC in front of Carlos Lampe. While the GC might be still in danger, the YC most likely isn't anymore with Peixe having a comfy time advantage of eight and a half minutes in front of Lampe.

The mountain classement should be done as Matt Campbell has a nice advantage of 59 points against the second placed rider in this competition. The same can be said about Francesco Scirea in the points classement, although both categories are still open, at least mathematically. The team classement would go to Bugatti at the moment. My guess is that he will defend it until the end of the tour, but it highly depends on escape groups and their chances to win a stage with a certain time advantage.

Regarding stages wins, Team FL leads with 4, followed by Big Donkey with 2, one of the the TTT. Only Bugatti, BMX Bycicle and PG Force are still waiting for their first stage win in this tour. As three stages are left, ... well, do the math.

[Robyklebt]

Well, sweating attacks and an incredible urge to sleep. Pretty boring tour somehow. I might still manage to lose it of course... but now all I have to do for the last 4 days, including yesterday (thought was one less before reading FL) is be there, see that nobody too dangerous is in the group that goes, and goes through, then make tempo in the right moments towards the end. Failed at that yesterday, but good thing that finnish guy wasn't hanging on the Deads.

[Robyklebt]

Joao Peixe wins, Ingemar Wassberg is very angry. Why Peixe and not the greatest swedish sportsman of all times? Well, sorry, our leader really was Grabkowski at the start Didn't really understand what FL was blabbering about with Wassberg, McCann etc as Tour favorites. It's for a classic with TT, the donkey was fully convinced of that. Wassberg would have won here very easily with his reg. Next time I study the route better...
But finally I won it at the inscription really. Bugatti didn't bring McCann. If he brings him.... I can't beat him with Peixe I think. He blocks my 2 moves in the mountain stages. So I probably would have gone for Grabkowski in that case. Not sure how against Paillegrenier, probably with something like in the first mountain stage, except that then I'd have ridden for Grabkowski. But difficult. Even bigger win was Dead and Alives team. Hund not there a app-inscription mistake Dead said, ok. Hund alone actually could already have been enough to turn the race in his favor. 65 mountain, 71 downhill, 56 reg. Even without Hund it would have been much closer if Dead wouldn't have given up on the second HC stage. No, he wouldn't have caught me that day, but he'd have been 2' closer I think. Risk attacks by Grabkowski, Vargas then, yes, but... With Hund... waiting for Hund instead of Wheeler he's still 1' faster or so. And Hund generally just scares people more than Wheeler and Bunsen too! Maybe enough, maybe not, against Hund I still have a chance. But then bring Röntgen or Hicks. IMO Hicks just perfect here.77-70-79. Yes no reg, but together with Elefant with his reg.. no problem. Expensive, yes, didn't check, but for a 77 probably not all that much. And with Hicks there, even without Hund, IMO Peixe only has minimal chances. First HC stage he just goes in tempo after my attack with Vargas and Grabkowski.. and gets them. Or if not they have so little advantage that Peixe gets them with one km tempo and their advantage is minimal... 15" or so... And Hicks in the downhill.. There my tactic doesn't work anymore. Same with the second HC stage, there going with Mercatone doesn't work anymore either. Hicks can minimize the loss in the hilly parts, Elefant then close it down in the end. Depending on Paillegreniers fitness of course. But with Hicks he could have taken the TT easier, no need to go to the limit. Hicks perfect, why not here? Roentgen then maybe overkill, too good really just as a helper. If anything as leader... just as helper maybe even hurting since then he'd probably want to go for sprints on certain days, making it harder for the team. But just Hicks instead of Mösengruber or so and IMO Peixe is out. McCann vs Paillegrenier with Hicks would have been interesting maybe... I'd say Paillegrenier, but seem to have misread the tour anyway.

I was the only one to bring the top team, not the top climber, but my classics. And that's what won it for me. I had 4 and the strongest classic team in the end. Vargas fantastic, Grabkowski fourth, he actually almost never had to do something, kept him as no 2 for a long time, Matuska good, Dahlerup mostly unfit and helping, but not always dropped. Excellent form setting for the 3 strong classics too. Then did the right moves in the HC stages, very difficult to defend for Dead with this team (although on the first one he should have gone to Elefant immediately after my Vargas-Grabkowski attack), since I had options.

The rest... a bit boring this tour really... x stages the same somehow. Sprinters can't control, only one trying. Classic stages as usual most classics don't control (classic teams in principle are sucker teams), escapes... bla. GC decided after the second HC stage. Then.. blaa. 10 teams ok, a few more better, even if then I probably wouldn't have won.

[team fl]

For the record the final results:

20.12.2015,15 Uhr Vuelta NorMex
1. Platz: Joao Peixe (Big Donkey)
2. Platz: Petri Riihivuori (Mercatone-uno)
3. Platz: Kevin Paillegrenier (Dead And Alive)
Bergtrikot: Matt Campbell (Bugatti)
Sprinttrikot: Francesco Scirea (Nash Team)
Jungfahrertrikot: Joao Peixe (Big Donkey)
Mannschaftswertung: Bugatti

In the end, the GC fight was done after stage 9, due to the reasons RKL has already expalined for the Big Donkey. Just add something to something that he wrote:

Classic stages as usual most classics don't control (classic teams in principle are sucker teams), escapes...

The "sucker teams" controlled at least three stages when in the end, they have been outdistanced. Louis Michel won a sprint out of such a situation as well as Elwyn Oxley. The other day, your classic riders were to strong but the stage was controlled by the "sucker teams". To give an overview:

Stage 1: TTT. no control at all needed I guess
Stage 2: Flat. PG Force controlled together with the Donkey and some others while in the end there were only 2 secs missing against Ospelt and they guys he pulled in the end.
Stage 3: Mountain. Control by the climber teams
Stage 4: Flat. First uncontrolled stage. All sprinter teams in the escapes.
Stage 5: Pavé. Usually a group would have made it but the stage turned into a GC event. After that easy 50km controlling for a Gfeller win.
Stage 6: Hilly. Controlled by classic teams. Michel win.
Stage 7: Hilly. Controlled by classic teams. Oxley win.
Stage 8a: TT. Absolute chaos.
Stage 8b: Hilly. Controlly by classic teams. Win by Riihivuori after your classics were too strong for the "classic teams".
Stage 9: Mountain. No control for the stage. Early escaper wins.
Stage 10: Hilly. No control for the stage. Escape wins.
Stage 11: Hilly. No control for the stage. Escape wins.
Stage 12: Flat: Controlled by sprint teams. Late escape. Gfeller wins.
Stage 13: Flat: Controlled by BMX (somehow!). (reduced) bunch sprint.

So in fact, the majority of the stages were controlled. Only stage 4, 9, 10, and 11 were open for escapes. That's less than 1/3. And only half of them were realistic stages for classic teams, while you had the strongest classics team in the peloton. Even worse, both Gfeller wins were mainly sucker wins (The TTT of course too, I am sure there were Donkeys sucking on other Donkey's wheels).

Anyway, the odd situation was caused by too many noobs in the group of course (all but Team darsseul). And of course that the GC was decided after stage 9 and Mercatone-uno as well as DAA seemed not to be willing anymore to fight for it, as well as nobody else before or afterwards. The most intense GC fight after the two half stages 8a and 8b was probably between Müller and Lampe for place 6.

[Robyklebt]

Sucker wins, GFELLER? Pff! On his second win I was in tempo basically the whole stage, NOBODY did as much work as I did that day!
Otherwise nothing changes really, the exception confirms the rule, classic teams=sucker teams, so this time sometimes they controlled... big deal

[team fl]

Well, then I am happy to be a sprint teams newly. Or a climber team. Whatever. Who's that NOBODY btw? Haven't seen him in tempo at all.

[Robyklebt]

Maybe read the calendar thread... basically that original sentence here was a counter provocation to the repeated whining about poor classics not getting enough races (every one day race, every GC, every everything would be barely enough it seems)... ok, realized now, a bit late, that this thread here is probably the wrong place for that, so took my provocation there now!

As for the control... At times it was just weird control... weirtol... or noobrol maybe? All of the sudden somebody in tempo for no real reason. The Riihivuoristage certainly was like that, a group collapsing in front, tempo for ? in the back, don't even remember by whom.