Giro 2015 Afternoon 15h

[Robyklebt]

Finally time for a short analysis... but warning, haven't REALLY checked the stages. Just suppose there are quite a lot of hilly stages and that in general the last climb is easier than the one before on mountain stages. Without checking properly....

I just go through the race numbers:

Maimonides: Will lose lots of time in the TTT. 3' + to Veracruz. But has the team to win time in hilly stages, starting from today. Can defend himself very well on last climbs generally, less, but still ok on the second last one with Goya, who even losing some mountain still should be able to limit the losses. 52 reg, so ok, but not brilliant in our reg-group
Veracruz: 87 with 65 TT and 64 reg, from the skills and the team the no 1 favorite: questions about the manager, yes, but he seems ready to try to go for the win, so let's see. Excellent second man with Croce, less reg, but 86 mountain. Classics pretty good too, no superclassic, but 75-73-71, should be able (if willing.. hihi) to defend himself well enough in the mixed stages. Problem could be too many guys too load at times. And that if he takes responsability, he will be attacked easier of course.
Dourado: Looks good somehow, although I'm not sure WHERE exactly to win time on Veracruz. Waiting for my moment. Should lose around or more than 3' in the ITT too. Needs to be opportunistic and gain time here and there, or wait for the big opening.
Betancourt or Peterlin, follow, collaborate with Maimonides for Peterlin, or then go for Betancourt with his pretty good TT and reg? His problem though that 83 mountain looks too little. Peterlin with his TT good, but the mountain might not be enough. Even with Betancourt as puller. As a extra minus for GC is that he is a stage favorite on most stages that don't end on a mountain, so his team risks to be tired often.
Martin: For me actually pretty small chances. REg for the TT a problem, next day a mountain stage, only 45 reg, 19 less than Veracruz. So he won't win all that much time on him then. Puller on the mountains not superb, another 80 climber. Possibly though Betancourt. His biggest chances is being underestimated, that since he IMO looks less likely than quite a few others, the others let him be until it's too late.
Hans Linna: No reg, won't help him for the TT, but can hope to gain quite a lot of time with stage wins... and then wait for the big opportunity to gain lots of time once. But Black hasn't really convinced as a GC manager in the past, so suspect he'll be happy with stages. But the chance for more theoretically there.
No Mokotov, no Vitesse for the GC win IMO, so next
Saavedra: reg a problem too. Like for Linna. Very similar situation IMO, the big opening could come one day, let's see if can take it. Second climber not superb, but more TT, but very difficult to gain time on Veracruz with the 82

So the central figure for me is Veracruz... but quite a few riders waiting in the wings, to jump on weaknesses. Maimonides and Dourado first, then a bit behind the FLs and Martin who wants (or shoudl want to) hide. Black and escartinos I suspect the managers could be less interested in GC..

[Robyklebt]

Interesting third stage, with another FL win... After Lichtensteiner yesterday Peterlin today. Nothing shocking really. Another change for rosa, after Zygmunt, yesterday Topal, now Urs Tobler. We share rosa as long as we have it. Today... many teams with 2 opposing goals somehow Taka for Martin and stage, somehow didn't fit together... probably should have waited for Alk-FL and then maybe collaborate for the stage win? Or wait anyway and then cover for Martin? Somehow like this was a bit complicated. Similar, but less for Alk with Mendes for the stage and Maimonides for GC time... probably Mendes a bit earlier to get back, and then try to get either the stage with Mendes or seconds or the stage with Maimonides, plus GC seconds.

[Liquigas-CND]

Regarding donkeys analysis...I think he underestimates Taka Team.

Martin has 75 TT meaning he will take 5 min to Dourado and 2-3 min to Veracruz...i dont see where i can take 2-3 min to Martin...
Of course Martin has low reg comparing to Veracruz and bad flat but he will have Takasu as helper with good flat skills and good reg being able to bring him back in front in stages where last climb is not so hard as previous ones.

Anyway i believe stages 19 and 20 will decide the GK where we should expect Alk with 5-6 guys in escape )

[team fl]

i dont see where i can take 2-3 min to Martin...

You seem to be highly uncreative then.

But you know what the good thing is? This game is not only about calculation and planning in advance. During a GT, a lot can happen, you may have to adapt your tactics, to improvise. Martin may win it, so may Veracruz or Dourado or another rider. For me, on paper, Veracruz is a very convincing rider for this Giro with a very convincing team. All his opponents have some weaknesses against him, like low mountain skill, low TT skill, low reg, weak helpers, etc. For your team it may be only yourself. And I guess nobody will give presents to anybody here (at least if the own outcome is not at least as equally good), so it will be very fun to ride and to watch.

[Bear]

I think stage 15 could make a big difference, maybe more than 3 minutes.

[Alkworld]

I think Martin barely has a chance here. Why?
1) He's weak enough to be siebed.
2) His flat skill may cost him energy during stages already.
3) His helper may be a good flat rider, but also lacks downhill skill.
He may however benefit a bit from the Alk-FL-classic express.
But anyway, as FL already pointed out, there's a lot that can happen during a GT, starting with possibly very different form settings. And it's very nice that there's really no obvious favorite. Veracruz is he closest to that, but even he'll have a lot of work to do.

[Robyklebt]

On Martin. Biggest problem I think will be the reg and the TT. 60 km, 10 points, normally that's 3 minutes, but 20 less reg in such a long TT will play a role I think. If both want to stay in reg Martin should win quite a bit less than the standard 3' to Veracruz. How much less, don't know, but my guess is he'll win under 2'.

This game is not only about calculation and planning in advance

FL!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't tell that Liquigas! The poor guy always thought he was chanceless because he never calculated the probable time win in the TTs, now that he starts believing in Veracruz you're destroying everything.

But seriously, I'm ready to call Veracruz the clear favorite now. Liquigas has been riding very well so far, he has been covering and defending when necessary. Not perfect, but then none of us is anyway. His attack with Tomic 2 days ago... not really brilliant, like my following, but other than that? Liquigas is riding very well so far I think. Of course there will be times when there are more serious attacks than we've seen so far, but Liquigas should be able to handle that as well as I would.. Clear favorite though doesn't mean sure win, of course, but in percentages he has the biggest chance of all. By quite a margin. Under 50% yes, but if he has 40 and others 20-20-10-10 (example) I'd call him the clear favorite. But of course the future winner Dourado (big win against Taxi yesterday) will keep an eye on other guys as well.

Yesterday: Not a very exciting stage I thought. Mokotov offline carrying vitesse to the stage... behind nothing going on. Some test balloon by Taxi, never really a chance, but was worth trying to sneak away. Then amazing Peterlin in the end, didn't think he would come back before the stage. Good thing it wasn't for the win, otherwise FL now would not only win stages where he's the favorite, but those where he's just an outsider too.... Today Abetone, don't expect big time differences, but let's see what happens. Stage should be for Black-escartinos-Veracruz, if Black and escartinos are online at least.

[Bear]

I really dont have the experience like most of you have. But on this Abetone climb, 87-59 is for sure stronger than 81-70, because of the power difference (fighting). No attacks surprised me.

[Robyklebt]

Today with fighting was clear, the question was if it was a "naked" 5 really... and I still don't know really.

Win for Black yesterday, good riding by Liquigas I thought, he did exactly what he had to do until the sprint. Control, sieb. Ok, he could have maybe attacked hoping to gain time on more guys. Either way ok really, I'd have done what he did though, especially with the 2 towards the end. Sprint then third place for Dourado, 4" gained, the Donkey is happy with that, Dourado in rosa too. For a while looked like escartinos might get stage and rosa, so the Donkey put in Squarcialupi to stay within striking distance for rosa, then others rode for the stage, all good too.
Back to regular programming today, with FL the favorite. Either with Lichtenstein or then with Peterlin. Without the "intuitive sprint" we have IMO a day today would have been a clear sprint stage at RSF too, now with intuitivness simply there are no sprinters and the half sprinters have a pretty clear favorite and clear no 2, so I'm not really optimistic for today. But we'll see.

[Alkworld]

Today with fighting was clear, the question was if it was a "naked" 5 really... and I still don't know really.

I'd say it's rather close. I had one time Moses not following a 88-59 (~89-60 incl. form difference) on a "naked" 5. But anyway, even if one follows the other, at 5% sprint, flat becomes irrelevant and gets replaced by the sprint skill. There, the Black-Star climber would have had the advantage again.
And about GC, I think it became pretty clear yesterday that Martin will have big trouble in the mountains. Which puts Veracruz in a good position, but he still has to worry about others. Once the favorite role gets too clear, he'll be on his own. But well done until now by Liquigas.

[Liquigas-CND]

Well , it depends how we will ride in the mountains. I have no intention to have more than 90 sec on Martin before the TT.
Anyway, Team Liquigas-CND will try to do the best for Ulises considering this is his last tour and will be sold on 31st of May.

[Robyklebt]

Very stupid plan to sell him on the 31st of May!!!! Make it the first of July, if you sell him in May he'll be on the market, nobody will buy him, he'll retire as a "free rider"... wait til he's 34 and he'll retire as a Liquigas! Your first star, can't treat him like that!

Yesterday another FL day... still haven't found the correct tactic to beat Lichtenstein with Topal, but will come, we're thinking hard on that one. Easy sprint really, only Liquigas tried to get a first peloton without Lichtenstein going, but sensibly gave up when nobody wanted to join.

[Liquigas-CND]

Very stupid plan to sell him on the 31st of May!!!! Make it the first of July, if you sell him in May he'll be on the market, nobody will buy him, he'll retire as a "free rider"... wait til he's 34 and he'll retire as a Liquigas! Your first star, can't treat him like that!

Yesterday another FL day... still haven't found the correct tactic to beat Lichtenstein with Topal, but will come, we're thinking hard on that one. Easy sprint really, only Liquigas tried to get a first peloton without Lichtenstein going, but sensibly gave up when nobody wanted to join.

I might be forced to sell him in order to be able to ride in june...I am losing a lot of money with this team (abt 140 K /day)
I have now abt 1M then I think i will end this tour with abt -1.4 M... of course i don't know how much i can earn for GC placement but let's see... i believe selling ulises is the best option as there is no tour for him in June....and of course i cannot afford and i dont want to ride Le tour with Ulises.
I was thinking to buy a classic sprinter and then in 2-3 months a 73/55+/70+ to become 80+/70/70+

[Bear]

You will receive a lot of money for GC. So you should be able to keep him. In June is Tour de Suisse and Dauphine, right? This should be good for him as well.

And I am sure that you will be mad if some strange team buys YOUR rider and he retires not in your team. Especially when you win the Giro, which is possible.

[Robyklebt]

Yesterday Roger Linna, double win for Black stars. Escape winning was expected, actually I thought it would be even clearer (and the 2 won with more than 10'..) I thought it would be vitesse (got up too late), escartinos, Mokotov and maybe Black stars, plus the usual 1 Alk, 1 Liquigas, maybe 1 Donkey, (Cesare if on the right escartinos) to go and get the stage, and most likely somebody rosa. Wasn't going to defend it anymore, do far did, or was ready too at least, not that I did much actually. Not yesterday. But... 4 guys at first, not riding, gotten back, more later, then in the end somehow Black with 2 all alone, so he went for it and won. IMO there FL (but sitted, so tough to make the call) could have gotten the group back. Before the stage it looked like almost impossible. Like this? Especially since Taka showed that he was interested, ride with him a bit and instead of going to 29' minutes or 28' when Black then sensibly took a break, it would have come down to under 20' most likely. Or stayed stable at least until the mountains finally started. Some tougher tempo then and IMO very likely Black is caught. But ok, we don't need 50% FL stage wins either. So far 3 I think. 2 Black stars, 1 Vitesse and Big Donkey with the TTT. We're not really sharing much so far it seems...
Today, in principle a straight climbers win, Black-star-escartinos-Liquigas the 3 first favorites, the question of course is if this time around the climbers go for it or they try the escaping thing again. Donkey would let go most likely, the rosa keeping season is over it's up for grabs from escapes (hopefully not from the peloton, but that is always possible too)

[Robyklebt]

The other Linna, third stage for Black too.
GC the big loser today I'd say Dourado. 6" lost to Veracruz, not good. And virtually no time won on others, should have been more today. Probably should have blocked the attack when it became clear it would be one. But well, too dumb for that. So little time win on Martin and co, little time loss to Veracruz... not good.
Biggest winner Liquigas in a way, by keeping everybody in the race he increases the chances that he'll get help from others since we still all have chances. Time wise Veracruz could have won more easily today I think, but ok, from a strategic point of view (but I'm not sure that was it) winning less is not bad.
Dourado still rosa, but he needs to start gaining time sooner or later.. .rosa with 10-20" will not win the Giro.

[team fl]

Review week 1

So, the first week of the Giro 2015 is over. Lots of expected things did happen, some unex-pected things too, but so far not much out of the box.

So far, the GC fight is still very open as the time gaps are still quite small, which seems to be good especially for the strong time trialists like Ulises Veracruz from Liquigas-CND and Alex-ander Martin from r Taka est nul. But the wearer of the Maglia Rosa still is a Big Donkey and was all the time during week one, after the TTT has been dominated by the animal cycling team with Swiss/Japanese roots. In the end of week one, it was Vinicius Dourado going to sleep with it on Sunday evening.

Other opponents are lurking behind him, like Fran Peterlin (Team FL) or Moses Maimonides (Alkworld) who try to gain time on middle mountain stages which didn’t work as well as at the Tour de Romandie so far. Especially Liquigas-CND and r Taka est nul do a very good job in containing the time losses against those two to a minimum.

While it didn’t work out that well in GC terms, it worked out well for two stage wins for Pe-terlin and for the points classement, where Peterlin and Maimonides are ahead of every-body else by a wide margin. Even Eric Lichtenstein (Team FL), who won the two reasonable flat stages so far, seems not to have a chance in this category.

Another notorious stage winner is Hans Linna from Black-Star, who won all mountain arrivals in week one and is the wearer of the Maglia Azzurra, who indicates the leader of the moun-tain classement. Black-Star seems to be the silent team that profits a bit from all the GC-fights in week one, as Linna’s team mate, Toini Kiiskinen is riding in the white jersey of the best youth rider in the GC without much attention. His biggest opponent seems to be Hamdi Benahsene from Vitesse, as all other contestants in this category are either helper or already too far behind. Black-Star has also won stage 7 in an early escape and thus leading the team classement as well.

Last but not least, the last stage winner not mentioned here, Alfred Baumann from Vitesse, who won stage 4. And another award for week one: escartinos as the team with the most aggressive riding style. Lots of early escapes when online, unfortunately not very successful (yet?). Most aggressive rider would by Szymon Szymonski from MokotowWarszawa. By the way, the number of riders is still 81, nobody left the Giro so far. Anyway, the current standings:

General classement:

01. 00:00 Vinicius Dourado (Big Donkey)
02. 00:15 Ulises Veracruz (Liquigas-CND)
03. 00:24 Massimo Croce (Liquigas-CND)
04. 00:48 Hans Linna (Black-Star)
05. 00:58 Moses Maimonides (Alkworld)
06. 01:06 Paul Betancourt (Team FL)
07. 01:07 Ecuardo Saavedra (escartinos)
08. 01:25 Fran Peterlin (Team FL)
09. 01:32 Alexander Martin (r Taka est nul)
10. 01:34 Toini Kiiskinen (Black-Star)

Points classement:

01. 145 Fran Peterlin (Team FL)
02. 141 Moses Maimonies (Alkworld)
03. 100 Eric Lichtenstein(Team FL)
04. 086 Fabrizio DeMartinin (r Taka est nul)
05. 081 Jiri Topal (Big Donkey)

Mountain classement:

01. 50 Hans Linna (Black-Star)
02. 35 Yusaku Kitamura (r Taka est nul)
03. 30 Eduardo Saavedra (escartinos)
04. 22 Szymon Szymonski (MokotowWarszawa)
05. 22 Ulises Veracruz (Liquigas-CND)

Youth classement:

01. 01:34 Toini Kiiskinen (Black-Star)
02. 03:05 Hamdi Benahsene (Vitesse)
03. 13:40 Domenikos Theotokopoulos (Alkworld)
04. 21:44 Björn Gustavsson (Vitesse)
05. 29:01 Ramon Asenjo (escartinos)

Team classement:

01. 00:00 Black-Star
02. 08:42 Big Donkey
03. 10:45 Team FL
04. 14:37 Liquigas-CND
05. 15:00 Alkworld

Stage wins by teams:

4 – Team FL
3 – Black-Star
1 – Big Donkey
1 – Vitesse

Stage wins by riders:

2 – Eric Lichtenstein (Team FL)
2 – Hans Linna (Black-Star)
2 – Fran Peterlin (Team FL)
1 – Alfred Baumann (Vitesse)
1 – Roger Linna (Black-Star)
1 – Big Donkey (TTT)

Preview week 2

After the rest day, the Giro continues on Thusday with a flat stage, followed by two middle-mountain stages and another flat stage. Sounds a lot like Lichtenstein and Peterlin again. GC wise, especially the week-end will be interesting with the 59 km long ITT on Saturday and a mountain stage on Sunday. That might lighten up the GC a bit. It will also be interesting to see how far the Reg influences the outcome until the second rest day. So who will wear Rosa after week 2? Veracruz? Martin? Still Dourado? Maimonides or even Peterlin? One that no-body counts on? We will know it next week. Until that, stay tuned.

[Robyklebt]

And let's hope Team FL understands com-puters and the way they break lines un-til the end of week 2!

Winner of the first part clearlY Liquigas. He showed that he is able to ride for Ulises, he's doing it well 2, and like that he is the clear favorite. Once again. Maybe that makes him nervous now.. hehe. The rest of us are all waiting and hoping for the big break. For Martin would be to continue not to lose much time, he actually could be further behind now. For Dourado it's waiting for the right opportunity in a middle mountain stage and or then a mountain stage. For Maimonides and Peterlin it's the middle mountain stages. Escartinos, Black, the same as Dourado, probably on his back.

[team fl]

Bah, 4 secs on stage 10. Grrr... And seems like I have an appointment on Friday afternoon. So looking for a sitter then. Thursday I might be late. Not the best week for FL so far .

[Robyklebt]

Yeah... 4", after all I don't mind, since Topal broke his promise and didn't win. Grrr. Grazing donkeys yesterday anyway, let's hope they are more productive today.

[team fl]

So week 2 offers two new stage winners: Liquigas-CND and Alkworld. While Liquigas-CND rider Dejan Markovic won out of a late attack group around 30 km before the finish line and thus outsmarted the sprinters around Lichtenstein, Newton Mendoca had the help of the whole team who made stage 12 a really hard one. In the end, it was the reg-strong Alkworld rider who could leave all other riders behind him and win his first Giro stage. In the meantime, Fran Peterlin and Moses Maimonides gained time against the climbers with an attack launched by Team FL. Unfortunately for Fran, he was not focused in the sprint and missed the bonus seconds and another point advantage for red against Moses.

Today offers some more opportunities for uncasual riding. But most likely, it will be an early group or a climber going for the stage win, while the GC teams will look to control the peloton as far as needed. Or not. Who knows what happens next.

[Robyklebt]

In the meantime Liquigas seems to get more nervous... surprising since so far everything is going well for him. Normally the Maimonides threat should be over I think, at least if I had Veracruz by now I wouldn't worry about him too much anymore. But of course never count somebody out before the end.

[Robyklebt]

No more roooooooooooooooosaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Liquigas-CND]

hi,

is this team attack?

Km: 161, Gradient: 14
Franz Flötzinger (Team Trojer Vellau) attacks
Gorazd Batagelj (SM Team) follows
Vlad Petra (Speed-Razor) is unable to follow
Steve Borden (Team Trojer Vellau) follows
Pascal Sperrlich (Maurice) follows
Augustin Falterhoecker (Team Trojer Vellau) attacks
Benito Deltoro (Speed-Razor) follows

or not..considering 3. Chained Attacks.
More than 2 riders of a team, who, through attacking or following, escape out of a group.
This rule is deactivated if more than 10 riders from at least.4 teams are represented or if the original group has less than 15 riders.
This rule is deactivated too, in the last 20km of a race and if the road rises 4% and more.

[Alkworld]

hi,

is this team attack?

Km: 161, Gradient: 14
Franz Flötzinger (Team Trojer Vellau) attacks
Gorazd Batagelj (SM Team) follows
Vlad Petra (Speed-Razor) is unable to follow
Steve Borden (Team Trojer Vellau) follows
Pascal Sperrlich (Maurice) follows
Augustin Falterhoecker (Team Trojer Vellau) attacks
Benito Deltoro (Speed-Razor) follows

or not..considering 3. Chained Attacks.
More than 2 riders of a team, who, through attacking or following, escape out of a group.
This rule is deactivated if more than 10 riders from at least.4 teams are represented or if the original group has less than 15 riders.
This rule is deactivated too, in the last 20km of a race and if the road rises 4% and more.

Chense attacked with 2, the other one only followed. So generally it's a chained attack, but it's one of the exceptions, as it was >= 4%.