Mexico 15h

[Robyklebt]

Donkeys in Mexico!
Goals... more people than Kaju and Liquigas, if it's only those 2 guys again, I'll just stay offline...
Other goals, somehow a stage win sounds nice? GC if it's a decent group sounds unlikely.

Team:

1 V. Dourado
2 K. Borthwick

The rest is open...
Classics: Toblerone and Lajeunesse both likely.
60-80 and future 60-80 and similar stuff Poggi sure, TTT and a star, Toblerino, Matuska, Gaouaoui, all 3 possible, most likely though only 2. Or 3 but no Gaston? Sounds uncool.
Sprinters: 1 or 2 out of 3, Creek, Ghazali, Topal.
Flat riders and future ones: Generalic sure, just which number not. Aodhagan possible, for the TTT

Mmh.. .difficult stuff...
Lajeunesse-Toblerone-Poggi-Toblerino-Matuska-Ghazali-Topal-Generalic-McBradaigh... that's 9, so 11, need to cut 2... dammit. Maybe don't need Dourado after all?

[luques]

Luques here too probably, have still to decide if 15h or 18h.

[Falkenbier]

The beer bellies here most probably.
Team already fix I think:

#1 Leesi
#2 Gonzalez
#3 Hamzaoui
#4 Nguimgo
#5 Ochoa
#6 Supersaxo
#7 Sviridenko
#8 Tamm
#9 Waldvogel

hmmm Edith means that Cavegn wants to ride, too....


Will surely miss some stages, but pffff....

[Robyklebt]

Team stands:

1 V. Dourado: Outstanding 84 climber
2 K. Borthwick 55-87 sprint helper
3 O. Generalic: 50-88 sprint helper
4 J. Ghazali: 56-89 sprint superstar
5 G. Lajeunesse: aging Lombardia winner
6 S. Poggi: 61-81 reg star
7 R. Tobler 59-82 escape artist
8 U. Tobler 71-77 classic genius, with TT
9 J. Topal sprint helper and the czech answer to Sagan.
Way too expensive, but doesn't matter

[team fl]

I have no idea yet, but if I start, I will do it here. Line up? something around Peterlin I guess.


Edith says Hugo Marxer will be in Mexico!!! He will be accompanied (most probably) by the following riders:

x1 Paul Betancourt, latest Team FL aquisition, the climber from Costa Rica, GC-leader no. 1
x2 Elvis "the King" Bogdanic, the serbian King of... hmm... well, the Serbian.
x3 Valentin Bratoev, the Bulgarian for everything.
x4 Phineas Federspiel, Sprinting quality from Liechtenstein
x5 Martin Hrast, Breaks Slowenian style
x6 Ryan Kilfeather, ... Ryan?... Drink up that Guinness and get to the plane to Mexico!!!
x7 Fran "Franz Peter" Peterlin, GC-leader No. 2 and stage hunter
x8 Dominikos Petrakis, The Greek avalanche
x9 Alain "may the force be with him" Yoda, Burkina Faso

Substitutes: Maybe Lars Hirschfeld for somebody else...

Waaaay too expensive for having only very low chances in the GC... Anyway, Team FL is ready to hunt for everything that's left over by the other teams.

[team fl]

Favorite check Mexico 15h, presented by Liechtensteiner Fürstenhütchen:

General classement:

***** Benito Juarez (Alkworld)
**** Vinicius Dourado (Big Donkey)
*** Rinaldo Esposito (Vitesse)
** Paul Betancourt (Team FL)
* a surprise rider)

Points classement:

*** Adrian Supersaxo
** Fran Peterlin
* another rider (maye a climber?)

Mountain classement:

*** the one who wants it
** another rider
* a surprise rider

Youth classement:

*** Harri Leesi (Falkenbier)
** Viktor Tsvetkov (Luques)
* Eijun Sawaruma (VeloClubDouchy)

Team classement:

*** Alkworld
** Big Donkey
* Team FL

[Alkworld]

**** Vinicius Durado (Big Donkey)

Hm, should I say something?

[team fl]

**** Vinicius Durado (Big Donkey)

Hm, should I say something?

Nah, he won't notice it, I am sure

[team fl]

Stage one is over. Gaurain for the escape, Falkenbier and Team FL for the bunch sprint. Although Velo Renault joined the race, he didn't help in the peloton with the best sprinter and a good train but won the sprint. Maybe Supersaxo could have intercepted him but went too late. So Hull the first rider in the yellow (and green) jersey, while Borthwick wears red and Hamazaoui white.

Tomorrow's stage looks more like a terrain for mountain-proof sprinters like Supersaxo and Ghazali, maybe even for Federspiel. Anyway, Hull is likely to lose his yellow. Who will take it? We will see.

[team fl]

Second stage, second sprint. Again Falkenbier and Team FL working together well for the bunch sprint. This time, the early attack came from Vitesse, who gathered the red jersey from Brothwick after the stage, who attacked again late like yesterday, this time together with Reto Tobler. In the hilly section stage 1 winner and GC leader Hull could not keep up with the peloton. In the end, it was the Kilfeather-Peterlin lead out that paved the way for Federspiels victory. So until the end of tomorrow's stage, Federspiel will wear yellow while he let Supersaxo wear the green jersey. White change to Tsvetkov although there are still 12 riders with the same time in this category.

Tomorrow follows the first stage not for sprinters. A) due to the short climb around 30 km before the finish and B) the final 4 km being on pavé. Could be a good terrain for Peterlin. Or an early group as the day after tomorrow, the team time trial takes place for a first separation in the GC.

[team fl]

Third stage, third sprint. Oh wait what? No sprint? Dammit! Who got me this information?! Well, good personnel is hard to find.... Anyway, seems like this Franz Peter won the stage. What a stupid name... Who let this prick win?! What? His team rode for him and did a great job? Team FL? For losers! Haha! Yellow tooo? Are you kidding me? Fuck this, I quit....

[Robyklebt]

Stage 1+2 easy sprints finally, even with the Big Donkey sprint work boycott. But few attacks, so really easy. Hull, after a mistake festival by everybody or almost (FL no mistake actually I think). Nice attack by Gaurain-Donkey before that, but no chance really. Second stage without the great Lake guy, (still don`t know how to call him) so Kieran had to try with Toblerino, hopeless of course. There Federspiel won finally.
Stage 3 the best, 6 guy in front, fortunately for FL one of the was Velo Renault, who was more interested in points for green (difficult in the long term I think) than going for the stage. And didn`t really ride all that much either... with a 3rd team in front that wanted the stage, it would have been very very very difficult for FL. Even like that at one point I thought he wouldn`t get it, but he kept working. Tempo all alone, got the win, very deserved.

GC: beating the Alk looks pretty difficult. Martin 85 or 86 mountain, hopefully one less from tomorrow, to carry Juarez. Normally that should be enough to win it.

[team fl]

GC Favorites placement before the TTT today (Leader at the moment ist Fran Peterlin from Team FL):

00:40 Benito Juarez (Alkworld)
00:52 Vinicius Dourado (Big Donkey) +00:12
01:02 Viktor Tsvetkov (Luques) +00:22
01:13 Harri Leesi (Falkenbier) + 00:33
01:22 Primo Mérite (Vélo Renault) +00:42
01:39 Martin deGüemes (Alkworld) +00:59
01:39 Paul Betancourt (Team FL) +00:59
01:39 Rinaldo Espozito (Vitesse) +00:59

Most likely, Juarez will have an even bigger advantage after the TTT. Dourado will still be second I guess. Espozito also with a very good TTT support, might win a few places. Betancourt on the other hand might be last in this list tomorrow after Team FL used a lot of energy for Peterlin's stage win yesterday.

Everthing else than Alkworld winning the TTT would be a surprise. So, Manuel Rodriguez will take over the leader's jersey from Peterlin most likely.

[luques]

First three stages gone, Aydyn too weak but Viktor looks great yuuuuuuuuuu!

Today should be an easy victory for Alk who has the best chances also for the tour.

His only problems may be the reg of Martin and the lack of a classic, but Gris should cover this gap.

Our objectives are maybe a stage win, Viktor will try to hang at Benito on mountain stages hoping to be pulled by Martin, and Aydyn will try a ms victory

[team fl]

Although Juarez will have a decent advantage due to the TTT and the ITT, the lack of classic riders could give him a hard time, if the other teams are as active as during the first three stages. But then, there are other teams with a lack of help in the mountain:

- Luques only with one helper over 65 mountain
- Falkenbier the same
- Vitesse the same if we count out Ortiz due to his red jersey ambitions together with Reg 36
- Vélo Renault with doubtful riding so far and all three riders over 65 mountain with a Reg skill under 40.
- Big D. with Tobler and Lajeunesse, both 41 Reg, but Dourado with 55 Reg. Seems to be the toughest opponent.

Looks like Team FL (that's me!) with the biggest advantage on that side (and Hugo Marxer!!!), as long Alkworld doesn't cut the main group with de Güemes. Betancourt with 58 Reg also very good, but only 83 mountain (training tonight would help a lot here... -> BUHMANN!!! -> watch my vids!) and maybe a big time loss in the TTT today with a big handicap. But still, it's 5 vs. 1, at least on the paper. So, let's get it on!

[team fl]

As expected, Alkworld won the TTT easily. Manuel Rodriguez new GC leader. GC favorites list looks like this after the TTT:

00:33 Benito Juarez (Alkworld)
01:06 Vinicius Dourado (Big Donkey) +00:33
01:46 Harri Leesi (Falkenbier) + 01:13
01:59 Viktor Tsvetkov (Luques) +01:26
02:26 Paul Betancourt (Team FL) +01:53
02:27 Rinaldo Espozito (Vitesse) +01:54
03:08 Primo Mérite (Vélo Renault) +02:35
05:39 Martin deGüemes (Alkworld) +05:06

[Robyklebt]

33" seconds back, Donkey is pretty much ok with that. 21" in the TTT, sounds ok too. Finally 19" gained on Falke, after being very close at the start, like that too, so think did an ok TTT.
Too bad tomorrow isn't a mountain stage though, Martin probably would have been a bit weakened. But don't think that much, IF he took "give all" out.

FL 54"... Before the TTT thought that maybe for him it would make sense to keep everyone together for the first 20 or so km, lose 2'-3', and try to profit from more space later on, for stages and a GC comeback. But maybe this way was better, after all he did ok, thought he'd lose a bit more maybe, very good TTT, beat teams that should be stronger than his, and only 14" behind third place today.

GC: Ok, Alk has no classic. Hadn't actually noticed that yet. But good good, one of these days I look at the stages and see if I get an inspiration....

[Alkworld]

I was not happy with the TTT after all, but in the end, from skills perspective, the difference to the others was not that big, so the result may be ok. The strategy basically was to first let the four weak ones waste their energy, while the five stars go slow and then speed up. Well, and the four were supposed to stay together when they are dropped, but for that I missed the 0% one km before. But that was only an attempt for optimization for the energy consumption feature after being dropped. With a mountain stage afterwards, I would for sure have done it differently and keep Martin fit, but with that flat stage afterwards, it didn't matter at all. Anyway, in the GC it looks not that difficult for Benito considering the long ITT that's still coming and with the mountain stages being rather easy. But maybe we'll see some surprises, or the boss sitting next to me during an important situation.

[Alkworld]

GC: Ok, Alk has no classic. Hadn't actually noticed that yet. But good good, one of these days I look at the stages and see if I get an inspiration....

They are overrated anyway Quaresma and Picasso didn't need any to win their GTs.

[luques]

In a buggy day Luques wins!

First objective of the tour accomplished, now let's look to the other days.

Everything is a bit messed up from today's bugs, hope tomorrow will be everything ok.

Tomorrow first mountain stage let's see what happens, our tactic is simple, no tactic!

[Robyklebt]

3 days for escapes, a bit unexpected. In all 3 days basically it would have been pretty easy to get the escapers.
stage 4, only 2 BlueLakes, Gaurains in the escape, none of the sprinter teams rode. FL a deadish team and missed the start, Falke with a fit team, but clearly didn't feel like it, and the donkey of course is still in his "I won't help for sprints" mode. So easy win for Gaurain.
Next day pretty clear favorite FL, but in the end he didn't seem to want it. Started, but with no help coming (not surprisingly really) he gave up. Wouldn't have been too difficult to get the group, there in the end Tobler got yellow and Luques the stage.
Yesterday mountain, again a group, Gaurain, even if just barely. The favorites.. Velo off, with off tempo, just too weak, Vitesse in the escape. Then the 84, Donkey, Falkenbier and Alkworld, the only one riding was Alk, Donkey and Falke both happy to do nothing.

Not sure how it will continue... .somehow escapes look to have good chances in the next days too.

[team fl]

Stage 5 was a sitter information problem. If i had enough time to explain my thoughts to demuth, fran would have won the stage.

[luques]

First week quite boring.

Luques Team won his stage, so happy. Now we will try to get the best from Viktor.

Hope that the 2nd week will have some surprises or Benito will have it too easily.

[Alkworld]

It seems to me that the tour profiles the community wanted are just too soft for much to happen here. At last year's Sulawesi tour I had reason to be scared every day.

[team fl]

It seems to me that the tour profiles the community wanted are just too soft for much to happen here. At last year's Sulawesi tour I had reason to be scared every day.

Looks like that. Even the upcoming stages are not really dangerous. Today's stage is flat, besides one possible Sieb-km. Tomorrow is the TT, followed by a middle mountain stage that should also be no problem, same as stage 12. Stage 11 and 13 have early Sieb possibilites but followed by too easy parts to try something with a GC contender. Not one single stage with two hard climbs after each other. But well, it was the best to vote for

Another point is that there is no other climber with a TT-Skill over 60 or a Huber, which could have made it a bit more interesting.