Campeonato de los Andes 18:00

[flockmastoR]

Hello, we need a forum for our race too!

Lets start with a little favo check for the GK:

yellow contenders in my eyes:

**** Michel Platini, Pedro Franco
** Stu Redman, Karim Davari
* all other climbers

Platini starts with a 22 seconds advance to Franco but Franco has 2 mountain points more, that can lead to lots of seconds later on. Franco has better reg and the team is not really weaker than Platinis. He has a mountain helper, but with 83 mountain and just 36 reg he may not be the best help, more or less he is the last loader. Platini on the other hand has Hillbert to distance Redman and block Fanco at the same time. Will be interessting how the race developes. If Sport and me work together early in the tour we could distance Redman far enough to start the fight against each other. In my eyes its 50:50
Hard to calculate the Mountain TT and the last TT. I dont think that Platini can win somethin there on Franco (+2 mountain and just -7 tt and more reg). The last TT is better for Platini (has more downhill, that helps) but Redman will win a lot of time there too. So Redman has to be far behind at that point. And the last stage is after the famous DEATH ROAD Stage.

Other climbers: Davari has reg and 50TT but only 85 mountain, he has 2 strong classics and good flat value so he will get to the last climbs with good power. Still it will be hard to get the many seconds on Platini/Franco
Redman: he has the best team for the final. he will have enough loaders till the final climbs. What he is missing is probably someone to carry redman in the mountain. when he is distanced he will lose time on every mountain stage.
Navarrez: 39reg and 48 TT makes him no contender for me, team is not too strong and the manager unexperienced
Favelli: Blackstar refused to bring the 88 climber to the Andes (thats a shame), good team but the leader with 84 just not strong enough (in a normal race).

Thats all about the climbers, hope for some comments

[luques]

Luques here with a sausage team. Sad thing: It was the best we could put in

LineUp:

Tsvetkov - The young, The Climber, The GC MAN!
Dmitrenko - Experienced helper for Tsvetkov
Krasauskas - The sprint launcher wanted to try Andes, Welcome!
Ojamaa - Older is better. Great guy with great Reg.
Pasternak - The TT guy, not so strong in mountain...
Khamraev - He will do something somewhen somewhere
Slepokurov - Enjoying the panorama
Blacklow - Andes as last race, could it be worse?
Uula - Read Slepokurov

[Slomy]

Qbikes Panthères there with a weak team^^ (if I finish the tour with 4 riders it will be good :p)

I'm here for stages (I can only win with escapes) and for the young jersey with Dérel and his crap downhill...

Sorry for my english

[flockmastoR]

So now the tour really starts. First mountain stage and some time win on Redman, starts good. Today a real mountain finish, lets see whats happening today

[flockmastoR]

Very hard to sieb this Redman away, maybe I underestimated the chances for him. Problem ist that I dont really know how much time i lose on Redman in the 72km of TT. Thats a lot, ok the first 38km are more or less all in the mountain, but still I will lose time there, he also has more Reg thats an advantage for him there too. Good is that I didn*t lose time on sport yesterday as I expected- even managed to win the stage and win bonusseconds on him.
Even if Riding thinks it was wrong I think Sport helping to sieb was the right decision. 1) Alone he has no chance against Redman, his mountain helper is too weak, Hilbert can weaken Redmann and ride after he is siebed. Sports chance is to win time in the end of the mountains than, which failed yesterday. I know riding has another opinion but the action was far from "puppenspieler" as you called it. unless i had to "schmunzel" there too. The sport attack was just badly timed, and the following in the end killed his chances to just win the sprint in the end.

Anyway not much happened till now: GK contenders:
1. Platini
2. Franco +26
3. Davari +28
4. Redman +39

Redman still minutes in front counting the TTs

[luques]

Redman is too alone, with a real climber has helper things would be different but like this not much chances, especially if the two opponents find an agreement to cut him out.

It looked to me pretty weak Fabio Castro, also with low reg, it could be a problem in such looong stages.

Sport should think asap a way to win time on Platini if he wants the Tour, he is already 26secs behind, and there are not so many uphill finish

[flockmastoR]

Redman is too alone, with a real climber has helper things would be different but like this not much chances, especially if the two opponents find an agreement to cut him out.

It looked to me pretty weak Fabio Castro, also with low reg, it could be a problem in such looong stages.

Sport should think asap a way to win time on Platini if he wants the Tour, he is already 26secs behind, and there are not so many uphill finish

Well I think i will need another 3 minutes on redman, yeah he is alone, yeah he has no climber, but with his reg he can do many km alone, his helpers are good enough to be there most of the time, thats all he needs at the moment. and yes Sport needs time on platini too. thought he could win some yesterday + boni, but he attacked too early. He needs to ride for stages here because he has more sprint and there are a lot of bonusseconds to get. Yesterday Platini even won seconds on him, that gives me some space to concentrate on Redman. So if Sport is controlling the group today he may get an "easy" win when i am fighting against Redman.

[flockmastoR]

Good stage for Platini yesterday. 2:06 now to Redman. 24 to Franco who won 2 bonusseconds yesterday. Now 3 relaxing days and than watch what happens at the mountain TT. I think Riding with Yellow after the first TT again. 2 steep mountain finishes where Platini can win time, still not sure if its enough

ps: As I said yesterday: If Sport rides for the stage he gets it easily, but he refused to do it early enough

[luques]

Well, it seems a pretty good situation for Platini.

Redman is losing day after day some time, the first ITT is not even so favorable for him, 9th stage is a mountain tt and the +3 mountain points of Platini may reduce the "estimated" gap. Last one is in downhill and have no clue about the distance.

Then Sport is always there but don't know seriously how much he can puts in trouble D&A, especially till Castro won't support Pedro till the end. He should hope with bonisecs and that the 7 points less of ITT won't cost him too much.

An outsider who can play a nice card is Quickstep instead, with his 61 reg Karim can mantain a good level through all the tour. He miss a good mountain helper true... but he has the surprise factor on his side, D&A and Sport marking each other and maybe he can have a pass.

Already (almost) out from the contest all the other climbers, especially Favelli and Navarrez, maybe they can try a lucky attack in one of the next stages.

[flockmastoR]

So the podium should be fixed for the 3 climbers now (if nothing surprising happens)

Platini now the big favorite for the Tour. All in all happy that riding is out now before the last mountain stages. Didnt like that he is off when he loses it, but he was off most of the time the first half of the stage, didn't even say anything about not finding a sitter or so, would have tried the same if he was on (so far all I say about this). @ Rasta: I really wanted to make a group that goes for the stage. Don't think I have to stay in the back that stage just because i wear the yellow, its not that i need to defend it against the group with gk gaps of more than 1h already. This is not real life TDF or something, need to earn some money here too. As Quick attacked I had to think about 1) try to catch the group again 2) goes let quick win in the group (but i think he would have attacked with the climber anyway or 3) just get pulled and try myself to do the best for GK. If Riding would have been on he can chase me right away, if he is on he can ride the mountain after me and catch me back, but he was off. It's still an online game.

Podium now:
1) Platini
2) Franco 22s
3) Davari 36s

Davari loses time on Platini and Franco due to bonus seconds till the start. after first TT it was +22 for Franco and +22 for Davari. So Platini could keep his gap from the first stage and distance Redman, thats really good. The mountain TT is hard to prognose, Sport with more mountain and reg, dont know if I can win much time on him, davari with more reg too but the same mountain should lose time to both. I really think we all 3 have the same form, but not really 100% sore about Davari. Davari and Franco with the same time in the first TT looks like Davari has a bit earlier form, but could also be just luck and randomness. The last TT speaks more for Platini, he has more downhill than both and the reg doesnt count there. 3 hard mountain stages left where the climbers can attack platini. Lets see what happens in the TT

Redman still best of the rest, he will keep hanging on VanOverberghe and get his 4th place with beeing on for 10% of all the race.

[flockmastoR]

Podium is getting concrete race after race

1) Platini
2) Franco 59s
3) Davari 1m02s

If nothing special happens Platini will win this. He has the mountain helper and the TT advantage now and the gap. Franco has to fight for place 3 tomorrow. He nearly killed his whole team today. Franco will start with around 700-800 power in my opinion, his 83mountain helper probably with 500. Quick with something like 900-950 (dont really think you have more) can fix the 2nd place tomorrow. But expect he tries to attack Platini.

[flockmastoR]

nearly all classements are decided

GK Platini will win it, with me online on saturday. stages where more then some seconds can be lost are over, ok death road but still having the best team for that ending. Platinis gap was that big that I concentrated on the stage win yesterday which worked very well. Hilbert early attack, noone could follow and than just hang on davari because i thought Franco still under reg from TT and the day after that. Worked well so platini could rest while davari saved his 2nd place more or less. In the end Platini attacked and noone could follow, he landed in the group together with hilbert to make a DOPPELSIEG perfekt

now 2 flat stages, today 100% flat and very long, dont expect km 1group as the mountain jersey is decided too for 90% (3x kath 4 means 9 points as the HC will go to a climber), second with some hills in it, but dont expect much to happen.

Green seems also to be safe for Platini
Team will be decided between quick and phoenix, depends on how many groups go through
The white jersey is still very open and hard fought.

My personal goal is to win the death road stage and maybe get Hilbert in front of some of the young guys in the GK. need some time on the white fighters to safe the 7th place and maybe overtake phoenix superclassic on the deathroad stage

[luques]

Everything is going as predicted.

Finally I put myself out of the last place in the team classification

Today long and boring, tomorrow almost the same but with some movement at the end...