Sulawesi 14h

[team fl]

Can I buy ~20 to 29 Regpoints for Sixpence please?

six pence would be a bit cheap for that many reg points ..

Ha, good one, but I then Roy will just sell some paintings for the money needed.

[luques]

Action in Sulawesi!

Tomorrow rest day so everybody at the attack.

A big PLUS for Ballantine and his action today that gave him the victory and made him come back for the GC.

Now Panza leads for 9'' on Primoz. My bet is that: if Primoz after the ITT will have 40 or more sec of advantage, then it could be a problem for Alk. Norris is at 19'' will be probably someone who can disturb the fight of Singe and Alk, even if the stage after the ITT and those steep DH Kms may create some problems in case of heavy rain.

Then FL at 22'' with both guys, he will surely try something i guess next week, 22'' are not so much to gain (especially with different tactics we will see at the ITT). I thought he would have tried today with a similar action of Ballantine but he didn't and i don't think he will keep those two guys together all the tour.

Andrey 1'19'' will play his cards at the ITT and hope to become a 86 with the upcoming training!

Btw enjoying it!

[Ballantines]

End of first week, some boring stages because much of us want keep helpers fit. Next week with the important time trial, 2 flat stages (maybe for a first MS?), 2 hilly which should be for groups and 2 mountain stages, more action i guess.

We will see what happen but today Panza is in good position as best climber, Primoz still have good chances with his good reg. Don't really know what to do with Norris with his weak TT and downhill, maybe wait what happened in TT and then choose to go for GK placement or for stages. Still 30% chances to get one more mountain point thursday, it would be great for us.

[Alkworld]

One week over, some seriously needed time to rest and there's one conclusion after seeing the first week: Very interesting race. I guess we were a bit lucky not to have a clear favorite and ,although not that many, very active teams. The GC still should be quite open with the following candidates (assuming that Falkenbier's Yuri will lose more time soon and not wear the yellow jersey much longer):
- Sancho Panza (Alkworld): The obvious candidate being the strongest climber and already a bit ahead, but with low reg and TT and a team with some weaknesses. He'll be the one to beat here.
- Primoz Groselj (Petit Singe): second best in GC now, 2nd best climber, lots of reg - Tuesday and Wednesday will show what he can make of it
- Eddie Sixpence (Team FL): good TT, not far back, but getting tired awfully fast. Something that could be a problem on Wednesday, but may also be compensated by his team mate Roy Lichtenstein
- Roy Lichtenstein (Team FL): if he'll be the captain only FL knows - maybe only afterwards
- Sean Norris (Ballantines): in a good position already, which he got himself into by riding fearless - big weaknesses are TT and downhill, which both could backfire
- Andrey Vasilyuk (Luques): the best TT rider of the favorites, but already quite a bit back because of the TTT

Salazar (Los Galacticos), Regazzoni (Falkenbier) and Daniels (Ballantines) shouldn't be completely forgotten, but would need to gain quite a lot of time somewhere to come back.

[Robyklebt]

My guys didn't need to rest THAT much actually. But then I have pretty good reg. for the most part. But ok, Hara would have been at 530 today, some more a bit under too, but looked ok yesterday.

GC: Groselj happy, the ape even more. Realistic shot at the GC win I'd say. Somehow better placed that I thought would be before the race. But that was before I saw that I had the best GC team. In retrospect probably should have gotten another few seconds more on Alk. Still think it was the best TTT I ever rode.... but in the early part probably some more riding by Coolboy might have given me another few seconds? There for a long time Alk just stayed where he was, probably there was a faster setting... like the one I found when we were threatened by FL then. On the other hand I think I lost less in the stages to Alk than I feared, so evens out. GC wise Alk said it almost all.

Things to add:
Hugo Marxer under pressure: The self declared best tactician of the game is still winless. 7 stages, 6 teams with a stage, the awesome Ape 2 wins, then Ballantines, Alk, Gala, Samurais and even the bird from Schafhausen all with 1 win. FL=0, the pressure on Hugo must be immense. Still at 0 as well Black Star, despite having a stage favorite on virtually every stage so far he remains winless. But should manage to get one or even more later on, Salpa will have 2 more chances, Vainikka as well. And then Kutti is always kind of a danger too. Third big winless guy is Luques, but in his case he has his win by riding Sulawesi. Plus like in the Andes he might wait a bit and start winning later on. His Andrey actually might be underestimated by Alk. Still a danger although back, yep, but he's the guy who'll win time on everybody in the TT tomorrow. 54 TT with 62 reg. He'll win 50" or so seconds to the ape I think. Which would put him 20" behind the ape. Mmh, the 10" lost before the rest day hurt I think. Can be more with the right tactic, can be less, we'll see. He would win ca 1' to Alk in a flat TT too. This one is hilly, so probably a bit less? I still never know that... But, he has 200 more reg at his disposal, so it could be, should be more. Or then Alk takes the risk the day after.. same story as with Groselj basically. We'll see what happens. The Hugo boys and Norris.. with Sixpence the Alk story, just more, the guy gets tired faster than you can imagine (might have something to do with having a team manager that likes to make stupid puns, must be very tiring), while Roy and Norris should roughly do a similar TT to Panza. That means they'll have to attack to come back into the race. Which could be possible. Depending on whose the leader after the TT and the day after. Both the ape and Luques absolutely don't have the team to control everybody, should one of them be ahead they would still concentrate most of their forces on Alk, then on the other guy, meaning Ape on Luques, Luques on Ape. Leaving more space for the 2 other guys. If Alk is in front, or less than 10" back, more difficult, then the race is probably over for everybody, Alk has the team to control and Panza the skill in the mountain to win time on everybody.

Anyway, let's see what happens in the next week, at Petit Singe we definetly hope for a Groselj win. But fear a Panza win. The new slogan "BEAT ALK" has had an effect already though, Michael Creek being young and all, kind of misunderstood the meaning of it and started drinking enormous amounts of VB on the rest day, fortunately we managed to make him stop once we realized what he was doing, so he should be ok after all.

[Alkworld]

Hugo Marxer under pressure: The self declared best tactician of the game is still winless.

Hugo can feel the presence of the rising star among the tactical geniuses, Manual Azana, who already showed his great talent when applying the Hugo-Marxer a while ago. Manuel already has big plans for the remaining stages.

His Andrey actually might be underestimated by Alk. Still a danger although back, yep, but he's the guy who'll win time on everybody in the TT tomorrow. 54 TT with 62 reg.

Not looking at dangers no longer makes them go away? Too bad ...

[Robyklebt]

Le Chef, Narcisse Arsène de Pellevoisin finally opened his account and won a race! With his usual style, the perfect synthesis of mindless pedalling and complete understanding of the race situation. When the team missed the start of the stage, Qian Baoyu our DS was still talking with our guys when all the others started.. we thought the race wouldn't start for another 5 or so minutes, it was Narcisse who made tempo in the first hill to get back that first group. Then he joined the second group, showed his superior talent for analysis by not following Fusar when he sprlit the group, but climbing at his own speed, knowing full well Fusar couldn't do it alone, too far. And then the sprint, surprising everyone he chose the start the sprint from the position he likes the best. The front. A completely surprised and demoralized Fusar managed to follow him for 50 meters, then evne though Narcisse took it slower again, to be able to kick again later, Fusar just couldn't follow anymore. So after Bochini Narcisse too won his first victory as a pro.
Actually we really wanted to try for Creek, but was always going to be difficult. Not so much because of the stage, but because of cooperation. Really needed to tell FL and maybe Gala that the plan was to go for a sprint. But then Black star knows it too, and with Salpa there for a sprint it all becomes difficult. Qian kind of tried to convince FL to go for a sprint even after to most observer it probably seemed clear that there would be no sprint. But after a while Qian faced reality too and called off the slow chase. Creek will have more chances later on this week, yesterday was Narcisse's day!

[Robyklebt]

Panza in yellow, Groselj 5" back. Disappointment at the apes. Hoped to get yellow for a few seconds today... but ok, Sancho turning the turbo on later had more left in the tank, and came back and back. But somehow had to speed up when I did I thought, to have Panza have to react.. maybe he didn't change his game plan at all, the km he started, 32 was the one I would have started normally.. like this Groselj started going a bit fast at km 20, to try to get Panza to react, which didn't really happen. But if I wait til 32.. nothing really changes, probably not time wise either, one second here one there... and then I have too much energy left too, and if then Panza delays his own start to 36... still not much changes. maybe then I get yellow for a second, but Panza is even fitter than now. Or maybe just start at 80 and gain 1" or so every 2 km until km 30? Somehow doesn't convince me either. Think I kind of did what I had to do, but hoped for harder conditions too actually.. plan was to go down further in energy, hoping it cost a bit, little bit more overall, good for the helpers too, like this the Alks will all be fit tomorrow. One exception that Panza.

Anyway, we still have plan a, b and c to try to win this. But of course we hope plan a will be enough.
Vasilyiuk with his fast start in the end as could be expected an even bigger loser than me, FL a mixed bag. Roy with a pretty horrible TT, while Eddie did a good one. Should be fairly fit, and only 58" down in GC. His problem though remains the reg, and that Panza normally isn't THAT much under reg... with 4 more mountain he should be able to follow Eddie? Plus the DeGüemes problem, he is fit and will limit any time loss. Time loss? Alk might want to double up tomorrow and win more time.

[Robyklebt]

But as Allagen would say: Easy against sucky managers

[Alkworld]

Yeah well, that went even better than I thought. Sancho taking it slow when Primoz took it slow, even gaining time on him, which was the biggest surprise. Then, when Primoz decided to speed up, Sancho still preferred to take it slow. In the end, with the advantage in energy and the steepest section, Sancho got even pretty close to Primoz, even enough to secure the yellow jersey for now. What surprised most however were the other GC candidates, which almost all (except Andrey) even lost some time to Primoz and Sancho. I won't complain of course, that way they are free to win the upcoming stages without them coming to close. Anyway, if Sancho can keep his gap tomorrow, he'd be one huge step closer to the GC win.

[luques]

Today not a great Vasilyuk.

Actually think that one of the mistake was the form, moreover we could spend 50-100 energies more in the flat part but as we don't have a good team we wanted to have Andrey as fit as possible.

[luques]

Almost Andrey... but don't mind.

We were not looking to a stage win, didn't mind it, in a tour the only thing that matter is the GC, other things are just for money makers, GC is for the glory! and even if our position is still not so bad we almost can't do nothing to win it.

In overall, could have played it a bit better but as i was busy much of the time wasn't really in it. Now will wait the new season where i should have a bit more time

Tomorrow i should be online, then Friday, Saturday and Sunday off (well sunday i knew already, instead friday and sat are yesterday news!). Let's see if i find a sitter, or just let it be, don't think will happen much; only Ballantines and Singe tried, maybe Singe will try again on the 12 stage who knows? But in general seems that Alk has the situation under control. FL probably can try something but looks demotivated!

Good Luck all!

[Robyklebt]

The 2 days that were most likely decisive ended in a defeat for Groselj after all.

Tried yesterday, as Alk said kind of depressing was losing time to Panza when both most likely went 75%... , didn't expect that really. Then the energy action. Minimal time gain, guessed 150 under reg for Panza, 23 for me. Panza then was a bit more it seems. So that after all kind of worked. Better than I thought, so most likely Panza couldn't have followed me later... so probably could have gained some time by just waiting and only going in the last hill, at the 14.. But, the way I tried it was ok too I thought, just didn't work.
Came on late, nothing had happened... decided to go for the isolation tactic then. So loaded Bochini too to have him in front of the Alks, which worked well. Kind of had thought about going for the bye bye Zibi and Tabakov tactic, trying to weaken Sancho further with high tmepo from the start... but that seemed too much to invest for 20 or so gained energy. Then a pressure attack with Zibi and Narcisse, didn't think he would let me get away with it actually, just wanted to have him ride and ride in the back. Didn't, so was pretty sure I'd get Narcisse over the hill too. Then at the bottom the Ballantines 4 man attack... IMO he should have done a simpler attack... wait with Daniels and Norris, just go with 2... to keep the pressure on Alk, threatening the attack. Which often is harder to ride then when you know the attack is gone. And then try Norris at the 16 later? Or go with Daniels plus puller, have Norris in the threatening the attack, something like that. Like this somehow there was not much pressure. Anyway, I kind of destroyed his attack then with my tempo... but Alk himself would probably have come out somewhere near the Hara group, that was 1'30" behind the peloton at the top, so 3 minutes behind Ballantines... coming back to 2' pretty easily most likely. And with Norris downhill getting him to 1' without big problems for the end too, if not catching him.
So didn't think he was a real threat that would make Alk ride hard anymore anyway, so didn't really profit me all that much, so did the thing I'd wanted anyway... sieb, go with Bochini, as a bonus Narcisse in front, as a second bonus Garcia Lorca behind too. Perfect, Alk with 4 guys left, so de Güemes couldn't be loaded (unless he loaded both him and Panza with just one guy.) And Santander very likely helping, unless he did strange and risky things. Weaken the support riders, seemed like a good idea, actually still think it was one. Ride through like that, be caught as late as possible. Then go with Groselj at the 16. That looked kind of good. Advantage there.. it's far, so maybe he's not sectricking yet. Second advantage, after there is a 14-8-9 series, to bring Santander over that one he had to go slower. If going early, that seemed the place to go. So went. There maybe a mistake, waited for Forsberg, who went too one km too late. As an egomaniac I only had eyes for Groselj. And that bad Gala 74 who was doing tempo... but ok, no change, Alk not stupid enough not to put in Santander at least if no other 70+ guys are in. Anyway, Forsberg, he was 7 or so seconds back then? Maybe no waiting and just going alone would have been better... costs more energy, but after all for most km I had yes alone in anyway, not the first hill, after waiting didn't want to risk dropping him immediately... Should have waited immediately though, not after 1 or 2 km. Or not at all, since after all he wasn't a big help (not for lack of trying, just that Groselj was too strong) Well, actually he was a help, thanks to him we didn't wait for Norris-Daniels, which I alone very likely would have done.. but with Norris downhill cooperation would have been pointless for Norris really, even if he would have... so good job this Forsberg. In the end we got caught at the end of the last downhill, nothing lost, nothing gained, well, lost the 2 days that next to the TTT were most pro Ape. So getting this 5" back will be very hard now, We'll see what Groselj can do...

Good stage win for Bierbauch. Helped with Koivu, at times breaked though, or dropped Alk riders (or was that Martin?), but he showed that he wanted to go for the stage. and then did it, beating Roy, in the sprint. Good race by Bierbauch. Actually when he first put Koivu in wanted to tell him that that didn't make sense... then saw Peltainen, mmh, ok, then makes sense. Pretty happy he won actually, even if Roy would have been ok too of course. Roy... not to piss off FL, but IMO he really should have tried the attack at the 14. Ok, me seeing Groseljs energy and how much de Güemes gained probably had a better idea about how fast de Güemes was, IMO not that fast. An attack at 14 would IMO have been very good for the stage. And the GC too, I think by then FL could have gotten me before the last 9, and if he took the risk of less GC time gain dropped me there too, carrying me after all didn't make much sense for me. But he didn't even try, somehow disappointed, to me it looked wide open for attacks there. But nobody tried, strange.

Finally I don't think I rode that badly those last 2 days, just didn't work out. Stuff could be done better, sure, but wasn't that bad. Could have, should have gone green or blue on my original attack, costs less.. and then Vasilyuk follows, who for a promise for the stage very likely would ride too. If not suck and attack later, still ok for me actually, then he gains time on Alk and gets closer again, even if most likely not enough, since the remaining days look brilliant for Alk. But another guy to have an eye on wouldn't hurt. So do nothing til the 14 go there, he has the stage for sure and gains 20+" Anyway... tried, didn't work... I'm actually quite happy with what I did in the last 2 days, not too happy with the result, but since so far otherwise everything I tried here somehow worked, that's ok too.

Tomorrow recovery day, I'll be 15-30 minutes late as usual on thursdays... we'll follow Panza with Groselj, just to be sure nothing happens.. and see what's going on once I get online.

[Ballantines]

Bad day for us, a big attack on this stage was planned from the start, first the plan was to send two or three riders in group, then attack with rinaldi-daniels-norris on the first hill to take more time using Rinaldi and use group teammates to do the flat, with all this downhill it may have been the same as today, alk takes no risk keeping pressure on guys in group and there was no surprise effect this time (attack on stage 6 was not planned first ^^). Anyway keeping position in peloton was not the good way for norris and i think he would have lose time anyway with dowbhill siebs, maybe less with daniels as helper... but no regrets, goal is still to try the win, 5-6 or 8-9, nearly the same for me.

Today nice fight between primoz-sancho, bierbauch ride well to take the stage, first time we see vasilyuk trying something, much riders in top 10 active except 2 or 3, was a nice stage. Let's see what happen on the nexts climbs!

[Alkworld]

Bad day for us, a big attack on this stage was planned from the start, first the plan was to send two or three riders in group, then attack with rinaldi-daniels-norris on the first hill to take more time using Rinaldi and use group teammates to do the flat ...

Last time your attack was surprising, but "surprising" won't work often. When I saw you attacking, my alarm bells were ringing, not necessarily because of Norris, but of others who'd use the opportunity, hang on Norris and get me into bigger trouble. But I still like the spirit

[Robyklebt]

Finished

Panza won, Groselj second, in the end Andrey third. Not too hard for Alk really. In the end he lost too little in the TTT and the TT. TTT... maybe I could have gotten a few seconds more, but still think I rode a good, my best, TTT there. So no regrets there really. TT... well, some bad luck involved too there, when both went 75% Panza was faster. Groselj at least 0,73333 TT points better that day... form 99, was kind of depressing seeing Sancho going faster. For a while thought maybe Panza went at 80 there? But seems not to have been the case. Then I went faster early... probably more time gain if I go faster later, but wanted to push Panza over the reg limit, meaning use my reg advantage, rather have more reg the next day then gain more time that day. Next day then.... there Alk won the race definetly. I tried the early attack. No time gain. I still think with the late one I probably win a little bit... but a little bit doesn't help me all that much. If I was 5" ahead instead of back.... still don't see how I can defend that over the last 2 mountain stages. So basically gambling for more, somehow. Safest way would have been to get more time in the TT, a 0 game the next day, then see what I can do with the 5-15" I have... But even that, simply not enough I think. Last 2 GC stages. Faaaaar and hopeless attack by Groselj. But I really had given up by then. There was no way to get time on Alk that day by attacking that far. One part for sure was just show.... see, I haven't completely given up yet, still try. Second reason though was to get Alk to work. The day after, much better for early attacks, but with a fit Alk, and nothing dangerous the next day... no chance. So try to weaken him that day, which IMO worked, partly self inflicted, he oculd have gotten me much faster while killing a rider less, or using, IMO Nicolas was under reg too the next day. Problem then of course.. I didn't really have the team to try the next day either.... Plus once the race was on didn't really feel like trying... The others neither, so... easy win.
Stages, 3 for me, happy with that. Hoped for Creek, he didn't win, but Narcisse Arsène de Pellevoisin and Patricio Bochini was even nicer. 2 nice helpers, get wins, wonderful. Plus the TTT. Sprint Creek second twice, ok. Groselj in mountain stages somewhere behind, but he wanted the GC so ok. Generally pretty satisfied with the race, 3 stage wins more than hoped for, GC second... hoped for one, but against Alk that was always going to be difficult. So second finally, bah. One day I'll win this dec tour!

[Alkworld]

In the end it looked easier for Sancho than it actually was. Having the lowest average regeneration in ages at the same time with high temperatures and lots of rain made it basically impossible to have nine fit riders, something the team only managed for stage 1a. My luck was that nobody had the combination of strong classic riders AND two climbers. That way, my top four riders were hard to weaken, even though they all have bad reg. Azana and FGL could compensate for them once it became dangerous. However, when Sancho was still ahead after TT and the "castle", the resistance seemed almost broken, as he would (and was) hard to beat on those last two difficult stages having deGüemes and Santander as helpers.
But anyway, the team had fun in the afternoon and will try to make your lives harder again for some other big tours, although riding in the afternoon in summer will be much harder to manage.