TdSdM 9h

[team fl]

Welcome to the Tour du Sud du Maroc (TdSdM) at 9h. Team FL will be there and as we saw, many others too. FL Line-up for this tour in Northern Africa will be, sorted alphabetically:

x1 Stéphane Antiga, still first in the alphabet
x2 Kenny Banzer, still alive
x3 Stefano Benni, still not at team Alkworld
x4 Henri Bienvenu, once without Ollé Ollé
x5 Victor Fargas, still reading
x6 Arni Steinsson, once withotu his brother
x7 Gaudenz Taverna, still our best time trialist
x8 Xaver Unsinn, still nonsense
x9 Walter Walch, still... hmm... there

Much too expensive, the goals will be yellow, white, green, red, team classification and if possible 5 stage wins.

[Team Radeberger]

Morjen, good morning

Team Radeberger is also at the start

# 1 Billy Talent - Eternal talent, maybe it's enough for the top 10
# 2 Dustin Brown - strong classics, wants to fight with Raczinski and Slettermark
# 3 Bernard Henriet - Helper without ambitions
# 4 Zoltan Baldog - the man for Red ?
# 5 Sergio Gallara - old but not to replace
# 6 Tom Murphy - mhhh...
# 7 Alassane - still here
# 8 Poulsen - still here
# 9 Kingston - still here

Wish all a good Tour and funny races

[udinese1970]

Bengals Udine wants win this tour

# 1 Felix Smith - wants a top ten
# 2 J.R. Oliver - wants a top 20
# 3 Gino Meneguzzi - good man to help in every situation
# 4 Michi Vinco - young talent.....ned some good result
# 5 Roberto Vinco - only help in flat
# 6 Roberto Pasut - flat man
# 7 Bob Spiders - another flat man
# 8 Kevin Rondo - old man
# 9 Michi Perosa - another young boy.....could help in some situations....

i am happy with 2 top 20.......

[team fl]

What a first day. Half stage one was dominated by a group, Wasili's white jersey and Calle's victory in the sprint royal against PWiB (hihi). The second half stage was dominated by the fight among the time trialists, Ruben Creel and Gaudenz Taverna, that the latter one by a wheel's length and therefore wearing the yellow leader jersey. In the GC Taverna is around 1 min ahead of his biggest opponent, Billy Talent from Radeberger. All the other classements are still wide open, esp. Red that will be to chase tomorrow for the first time during this stage race. Anyway, time for a favorite check:

General classement:

***** Gaudenz Taverna (Team FL)
**** Billy Talent (Team Radeberger)
*** Kepa Gazteluea, Oystein Slettemark (both RV Allagen)
** Pietr Sykora (Delgado)
* Jörg Heimbach (Team Ruhrgebiet)

Points classement:

*** Paul Popiel (RV Allagen)
** Nikola Rybkin (r Quick)
* another classic rider with 60+ sprint

Mountain classement:

*** the one who wants it
** another rider
* a surprise rider

Youth classement:

*** Ciprian Tatarusanu (RV Allagen)
** Michi Vincho (Bengals Udine)
* Simon Vestra (Rasmussenbank)

Team classement:

*** RV Allagen
** Team Radeberger
* r Quick

[Bear]

I dont see Gaudenz Taverna (Team FL) winning here. I am pretty sure one of the classic riders will win the GC, probably the one who wins the points classification.

[team fl]

I dont see Gaudenz Taverna (Team FL) winning here. I am pretty sure one of the classic riders will win the GC, probably the one who wins the points classification.

The following three stages are middle mountain stages. Maximum 30 secs to gain for the stage victory in three stages (10 secs each). For me, only Billy Talent has a decent chance to make it. Another rider would be surprising, although not impossible. Kepa is dangerous too, but he has 43 sprint, Oystein has 46. If I count all GC-important riders above 60 mountain in, it shows this GC at the moment:

1. 00:00 Gaudenz Taverna (Team FL)
3. 01:06 Billy Talent (Team Radeberger) -> 69 sprint
5. 01:26 Kepa Gaztelua (RV Allagen)
6. 01:41 Oystein Slettemark (RV Allagen)
7. 01:43 Pietr Sykora (Delgado) -> 69 sprint
8. 01:55 Jörg Heimbach (Team Ruhrgebiet)-> 69 sprint
9. 01:57 Pierfranco Muraglia (Password is Bear) -> 63 sprint
10. 01:58 Stefano Benni (Team FL) -> 65 Sprint
.
13. 02:22 Paul Popiel (RV Allagen)
.
21. 02:47 Nikita Rybkin (r Quick)

[Mangahn]

Yesterday I thought about riding here, but the last few morningraces show me, that I cannot guarantie to stay online the importend KM. Might be interesting between Taverna and Nemes. So it should be Tavernas Gold. Go for it!

[Allagen]

Yesterday I thought about riding here, but the last few morningraces show me, that I cannot guarantie to stay online the importend KM. Might be interesting between Taverna and Nemes. So it should be Tavernas Gold. Go for it!

it´s a strong morning tour and this is the only reason, why you do not ride it

[Allagen]

Allalyse


First, let´s take a look at the stages.

Stage 2: Gaudenz will get split after the 9 %. 15 km to ride. How much time will he lose at 9 %? Don´t know, 15-20 Seconds? Stefano Benni looks really strong. I think that he can catch Radeberger. Talent with only 1 Helper (75-79-77). Gaudenz with 2 Helpers (72-81-77 and 75-79-50). Perhaps Radeberger will wait for Balog (67-83-77).

But FL will not catch Radeberger, if some other Teams will ride for the Stage, like Quick or Allagen. Perhaps Balog is really strong, so he is able to ride really fast. But anyway, Gaudenz will lose some time, between 5 and 15 Seconds (without the timebonus).

Stage 3: This stage looks simular, but it will be difficult for fl. 6-5-8 combo. he will lose more time there. 20-25 Seconds? Perhaps more, do not know, who will split and ride and we do not know the form of the riders. And again, fl will lose time. About 10-25 seconds.

Stage 4: really difficult to ride for fl. if someone will split at km 97 it will be really hard for him. If Radeberger will ride really hard after km 97,gaudenz will lose a lot of time. Perhaps 30-40 seconds, or even more?!?



We do not know the form of FLs and Radebergers Riders. FL looks really strong. It will be a hard fight for FL. It is possible to win. It will be really close between both riders and Billy Talent is able to get some bonus seconds at the end of the race.


General classement:

*****:
****: Gaudenz (FL) / Talent (Radeberger)
***:
**:
*: Kepa, Oystein (Allagen), Muraglia (Bear), "Benni (FL)"


I do not see a 5 Star Favorite, only 2 riders with really good chances to win this tour. Kepa and Oystein are able to win this tour too, but it will be difficult with 46 and 43 sprint. Even Benni looks really strong at the time trial, but i think that he will be not the leader but Muraglia looks strong too and he will be the leader of this team. He is also able to sprint (63). The other riders are not able to win the tour. FL and radeberger will not lose so much time. So Popiel (Allagen), or Rybkin (Quick) are able to win some stages, but they have to much space to the 2 favorites.


Points classement:

*** Paul Popiel (RV Allagen)
** Nikola Rybkin (r Quick)
* another classic rider with 60+ sprint

i hope so

Youth classement:

Do not know.

it will be hard to ride for Kepa, Oystein, Popiel and Tatarusanu. So still other riders are able to win the white jersey. Reyes (aux) looks strong. Even Vinco (Bengals). We will see. Tata with the best chances if i ride for him.


Team classement:

*** RV Allagen
** Team Radeberger/Quick
* other team, which will win out of a km 1 groupe

[Allagen]

okay, goodbye gaudenz. okay, it´s not over now, but it looks like that

[team fl]

Yap, seems Taverna has no chance. Too many overlapping interests in front. So now its Benni/Unsinn time. Don't even think I could keep yellow for the day after tomorrow. The question now is, if anybody else tries to challenge Talent for the GC.

[Allagen]

Stellt sich jetzt die Frage, ob ich mit Popiel weiter auf Grün fahre oder mit Kepa und Oystein mal was probiere im GK. Allerdings können die 2 Helden dermaßen kacke sprinten,....naja schauen wir mal. Weiß wird denke ich Tata noch verlieren, heute hat man gesehen das die anderen besser in Form sind und einen Extrahelfer wird er nicht abbestellt bekommen. Auch wenn ich Gaudenz nicht ganz abschreiben will, so spricht doch wirklich fast alles für Talent. Meiner Meinung nach wird er die Rundfahrt gewinnen, insofern er auch online sein kann und keine großen Fehler macht. Es gibt jedoch zich Fahrer die angreifen können und das vermutlich auch tun werden.

[Robyklebt]

Excellent chat today, excellent chat! At least so far.

Allagen special. One word he doesn't like or some criticismand he feels insulted for the whole day.... most likely longer though. Always fascinating to see how thin skinned our "whatever I say, it's only a joke, don't always take everything so serious" Allagen is!
Keep it up guys, excellent past time right now! Too bad FL seems relaxed again, for a moment it looked like he was preparing for another barrage of insults. That FL guy keeps too much inside, let it go, FL, let it go! Or hire Kämpfer as communication coach!

[team fl]

Taverna saved the leader's jersey for another stage... yay. GW to Quick/NoPik for the stage win. Popiel and Rybkin seems to share the burdon here

Bear asked a good question: What if Benni would have been riding for Gaudenz instead of riding for himself? Well, I don't know. Logically, the GC fight would be closer. Yesterday, instead of waiting for Henrid, I could saved around 15 secs I guess, today another 10. So instead of having 2 seconds left in front of Talent, it could have been around 25-30 seconds before tomorrow's stage. Maybe. In the best case. But let's say 30 secs. Tomorrow, we have a much harder finish than during the last two stage. Thus, Gaudenz would have lost at least more than today, which would have been almost sure more than 30 seconds. Consequently I think that it was impossible for Gaudenz to win the GC, especially with the situation that Allagen and Quick are riding for their stage chances and therefore pulling Talent. Nevertheless, tomorrow will be interesting as f.e. Allagen could challenge Talent with Kepa and Oystein. Also Bear and even Benni could do it with a surprise attack, although their chances are very very low. And then it will be important to know what Quick is doing, and if Talent can keep up with Kepa, after a strong split from Slettemark. If I had to bet on a rider, I still would bet on Talent.

[Robyklebt]

. GW to Quick/NoPik for the stage win.

Ah.. that explains it. I was wondering how Poke managed to win a stage! But it was Poke channeling NoPik it seems! Now all clear!

[team fl]

. GW to Quick/NoPik for the stage win.

Ah.. that explains it. I was wondering how Poke managed to win a stage! But it was Poke channeling NoPik it seems! Now all clear!

Ah, confusing these Nicknames. It was PKMN then. Well, GW to Quick/PKMN.

[Pokemon Club]

. GW to Quick/NoPik for the stage win.

Ah.. that explains it. I was wondering how Poke managed to win a stage! But it was Poke channeling NoPik it seems! Now all clear!

Ah, confusing these Nicknames. It was PKMN then. Well, GW to Quick/PKMN.

Confuse Nopik an me, what a blaspheme !

[NoPikouze]

Blaspheme indeed, this isn't a way to treat your Lord !

[Bear]

Maybe you are right FL. Even if you ride with Benni for Gaudenz it wouldn't be enough. Tomorrows stage is defenitely the hardest. That was what I was actually thinking before the tour... if you had 2 strong 60-80s it would be a different situation. But maybe even this wouldn't help.

Best thing of today, surely Allagen. Insulting in this situation was maybe too much, but he deserves it anyway,it didn't need such riding. I was just a bit pissed because Klaas did like 10km alone, noone was helping, I stopped, and just one guy attacked.. guess who? "Tactical advantage"? There was no advantage since all teams could keep there important riders fit.

[Allagen]

@ fl: if you ride for gaudenz with all your power, you may be able to win this tour. it would be a hard fight for sure. even talent is able to win. probally a 55-60 % chance for talent and 40-45 % for gaudenz. and i do not understand why benni was not helping gaudenz. if you do not want to ride for gaudenz, why was xaver helping? in germany we say "das ist weder fisch noch fleisch" if you fight for yellow, you can win the tour and you can lose the tour. if you do not fight for it, you lose anyway and you are not able to win...

by the way, i still do not know how to ride tomorrow. i do not know if i fight for yellow maybe i am happy with green, red, white, mw and podium

[team fl]

According to my experience, even with the help of Benni, this would have never worked out for Gaudenz. Just too many teams working for Talent and Radeberger in front. See also my calculation in my last posting above yours. But you simply decided to ignore that and claim the opposite, without any arguments.

And btw, with Xaver helping Gaudenz, I could at least save the yellow jersey and a decent GC placement. As a stage win for Xaver is very unlikely anyway and he is not placed well in the GC, this is not a big loss.