Here I am with my comments. As usual lots to say, especially about everything Kwick did wrong!!!!
Early escape, Ceroni my plan A. Thinking: a) As favorite you hope for no group. Especially no early group in MSR. b) Quick had mentioned how he was NOT looking forward to controlling the whole race on his own. Let's challenge him! c) My other options... very limited somehow. So 4 man group, Kwick rides, then my first gamble doesn't pay off, the others help. Grrr. Stevens, then CC, then after the Turchino Mobster. Actually I think they were right to help. Better try to win and possibly fail than not try at all. And while Quick clearly was the favorite, it's not like Edogawa, Merlier, Park seemed chanceless.
Then after the Turchino IMO a Quick mistake. As he describes, he lets Ahonen ride alone, Mobster, not coming back in, even after an ultimatum. What for? 1 more helper, yes, but you had a nice working relationship with them, PLUS Ganna likes it slow in the plain. For the front this was good, small hope that they then go too slow too long, but very small. And with the Furpach attack that hope was gone. And then Quick after a while back in, red, full power. Not fresh guys, but for Ganna a nice dose of green/blue would have been better I think. Ruthless Quick anyway, asks for help, gets a finger, takes the whole hand. But ok, sometimes you need to, not sure this actually was one of these cases.
Rest then no more complaints about his riding, but about his other comments. Worst group because of 3 strong hill sprinter teams? Disagree, fit quite well I thought. First of all they weren't THAT strong. CC with 2 86, but with under 60 mountain, they are not going to be far ahead of Ganna. Mobile 87 and Liivik, that's stronger, yes. Stevens had Bluemarine, whom I didn't even see, 85, but then I was not looking at them that closely, little to do with me...So 3 teams with the same goal, vs Ganna with another one, but that gives them a chance, that can make them help, and they did. No LIquigas type, with the best hill/sprint sprinter, but refusing to ride helps too. A group like the morning IMO would have been much worse for Quick, with a classic attempt by Alk, with Tesla that is stronger in sprint than Camoranesi, then it's Ganna. Actually any group with AAD is worse
58-86 sprint, Tesla, and would he ride in the peloton with Quick? Of course he should, but would he? Judging for the amount of work he's done for his sprinters in the last year.... doubtful. Of course every group is bad when you're the favorite, but I thought this one was fairly ok.
Then Kwick claims the sieb was bad, it was perfect for the hill sprinters. Bluemarine dropped, ok, but there was enough power ahead to try. 10" to Ganna. Perfect sieb, Edogawa and Merlier are dropped it's much less, 6"? Or so? No clue really, but thought around there clearly under 10". By having them fight and stay, perfect. Maximum advantage, and while before the race I was pretty sure Quick would come back with no problems, with 10"... still think he comes back, but less sure. Liivik had to ride the 5, then Bosch or Orter the 2, whoever was there from stevens then help too. Flat part Bosch can ride a bit too. Orter probably as well, after all in that group probably there were no flat monsters, so he can use a bit more than Kwick later with flat monsters there. But Bosch rode the 5%, what a waste! You both worked for it, stevens and Mobster, then take that chance if it's there. Go in, try. Kwick with an excellent team, good chances to come back still, but why give up immediately?
Downhill attack, don't think 1 follower cost's 1"... the advantage wouldn't have been much bigger really, 2 guys following? That is maybe 1", maybe not even. Help by the hill sprinters, well, in a way maybe they shouldn't, but on the other hand. They invested something, they do have a small chance of winning, why not. Nobody bats an eyelid if people in the escape with much less chances ride, so why not here too.
Now to the Donkey:
Quick wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:39 pm
Oh and before I forget: WTF was that donkey? Just bring Verkerk, maybe Bieri as well and do the Gamboa train. Completely without direction. Ceroni was plan A, ok ok. But what was plan B? The try for Gurru was so unconvincing I don't even want to call it a try.
WTF was that. Something to forget basically.
The Gurru plan, didn't have one really. Gurruwiwi was a helper the whole race. If you meant Galarrwuy Rrurrambu, ok ok, that was indeed so unconvincing that you shouldn't call it a try.
Verkerk: I admit, I dreamt about Verkerk on Thursday evening, Gamboa-Verkerk, Gamboa sprints at 500, Verkerk passes him at 50, first of 2 MSR wins. Then after about 2' I came back to reality. And that is: Verkerk made 0 sense.
Situation:
Gamboa my logical but barely viable leader. 3 big problems
-58 mountain, if there's a sieb he's normally behind most if not all other hill sprinters
-78 sprint, if he's in the sprint he's normally one of the weakest sprinters.
-support cast. Decent, but not more. Rossi good, Vanuytsel 84-78 f-d good in downhill, in combination with 84 Carpinteiro in flat... decent, decent, not bad, but in modern c4f most of the time not enough. Maybe for holding, but not for gaining.
So, 2 likely scenarios:
a) No Ganna
Then I'm chasing. And I have to load Verkerk, at 61-64 on a 6 he's not even sure to be stronger than Gamboa, or just barely. So he has to be fit too. Means 5 riders fit, with the weather we had actually probably kind of possible. But then he needs 2 helpers when it gets fast. Hm. And if we reach the front, ok, Verkerk could be useful. But reaching the front difficult, and it would mean no plan A, no Ceroni for the win.
b) with Ganna. Ok, easy, Vanuytsel or Carpinteiro not really needed, Kwick will bring Verkerk and Gamboa back. Good plan. Then the sprint... 62-78 vs 65-67-91? The only thing I achieve is put a bit more pressure on Kwick in the sprint, he can't take sprint out, he has to sprint most of the way, at least until he can jump on my train. Useless.
So sorry, Verkerk at this point didn't really make any sense for me.
Of course what I did was a mess. Ceroni, made sense to me, still does. Then trying to keep 4 riders fit with 3, made sense. Then realized it was easy, changed to 2 helpers 5 helped in the back. Rrurrambu from helper to leader. Made no sense. Worked till km 50? 5 riders 990-995 I think, not after. Ended up having nobody at 1000 when we reached the Mediterranean. Then sort of focused a bit, let Vanuystel slide, of course Carpinteiro less useful, once I realized that let him go too, but saw that saving Isidoor now too late, so... in the end it was Rossi-Gamboa-Rrurrambu-Carpinteiro-Vanuytsel... fitness order. with Carpinteiro und 900 already.
What would have made sense: Go all in for Rrurrambu. Means no Ceroni again probably, but Rrurrambu, give him the guys that were there for Gamboa (in case Kwick wasn't there for him) let Gamboa a free role, help him as much as possible, but if necessary let him drop a bit lower, him and Carpinteiro. Cipressa, Rossi up the 5%, Vanuytsel downhill. Vanuytsel Carpinteiro flat, Rossi Poggio. Does it work? Difficult, but while I had 30" to Kwick on top of the Cipressa, with Rossi riding the 5 would have been less. With Rrurrambu at the Ganna fitness level another 1-2" less. How much is realistic? 10"? And with Kwick then not daring to go full power, no Savinci the whole time, not too much Moser, maybe there is a chance to come back. Waiting for me would have made 0 sense for Kwick though, why get a 78-88 train there that you really don't need? Or a 88 hanging on you? But in retrospect, that is what I should have done. Since BW was kicked unfairly, maybe we should ride it again? I promise not to attack with Ceroni but to go for Rrurrambu, a full try (that risks being Strade Biance v2 of course)