Afternoon Vuelta 2021, the prime time Vuelta at 15h

[Robyklebt]

The Donkey will start, 96% now, while he is not really eager to do a third GT, somehow he's convinced himself to do it.

Team is still sort of a mystery though.

Apicella: Leader or helper or leader
Eiffel as leader or helper or Ardila as helper
Trewlove: Aging flat star
Stakhanov: Worker

4 spots sure well, the spots, not the rider in one case.

Löffel: Likely
Gabel: Would love to try it, hm, think should add those 2 above, 1 sprinter spot seems sure, question is if the second guy joins.
Coderch: Have to check form settings
Espariat: SEe above, think I plan only 1 classic?
Lambert: See above, maybe 2 and he is one of the 2?
Teixeira: 60-80, see above and below
Moretti: SEe above, form, how many of what
Quaghebeur: Trained, now 86 flat, no reg, but deserves it for the training

Problem with the form checking though is that I think I have 13 riders with form there, probably these 13.... blah.

Goals: A stage win, the GC either with Apicella or Eiffel.

[CircleCycle]

90% Starting, 100% if I find a sitter for 15.08. and last week soon...

Fixstarters:
Sindarov
Fakasega
Faye

Most likely in the team:
Ouedraogo
Snel

remaining 4 spots:
Savickas
Eselson
Lim
Ramesh 1.2
Frazer
Son
Greenidge
Cubas

[flockmastoR]

No mathematician starting this time. After 3 GTs in a row we skipp this years Vuelta and prepare ourselves for the Andes and next years Giro

[Robyklebt]

Are you sure none of the riders is a mathematician?

And hm, we need teams!

Big Donkey
Seven Down
Circle
fantasticos

in so far

Right now L RSV, I hope he stays and it's not just looking at the field.

So that's 5, we need more. 10! 15! Manghi!

[xcrunners]

hey hey

The race points are stacking up and istvan is ready for his first gc. FEAR HIM!

[Robyklebt]

We fear him!

The Donkey team:

1. M. Apicella: Leader
2: I. Ardila: incentive to make him train.
3. J. Coderch: Star classic
4. T. Espariat: Second classic
5. M. Gabel: Winless sprinter
6: J. Löffel: Star sprinter
7: F. Quaghebeur: He trained to 86, so gets rewarded
8: M. Stakhanov: Reg star
9: E. Trewlove: Flat star

As long as I don't think about it anymore, this should be the team. Even if.... without Eiffel, do I need 2 classics? Without Eiffel, do I actually need Ardila at all? Or bring Eiffel after all? Quaghebeur useless most of the time. Aaaah... hm, might change. But right now that's the plan.

[Robyklebt]

8 teams, nice!

And very nice, it's the best climbers group since almost forever in the afternoon. In the past 2 years at least it was mostly a 2 team with climbers contest, sometimes 3, but really mostly 2. This time not. 6 team with a climber over 84. The big favorite of course the lonely 89, Skeljvik, the next best climbers have 86. But at least it's not just a duel, there's a decent number of teams that will have incentive to attack fantasticos. Will they, will there be chances, let's wait and see, but at least it promises more exciting racing than the usual prime time GT!

Sprint, well, here it's a bit of the same as in the Giro and the Tour. CC just seems too strong. Then Walker who more often than not will get Snel's wheel. And Osorio who will normally be one further back. Which hurts his chances a lot, and he'll have 87/86 in his wheel, so can't really risk going too early either. So favorites normally Snel and Walker. Osorio 92 due to the flat will probably be too far back too often. Doesn't mean he can't win one of course. And it's hard vs the strong CC train too, since he'll be able to start the sprint late often. No other trains. And everybody in his wheel is blocked by some other guy in his wheel:) Other trains, not completely correct, there is the world famous Donkey train, 81-86, maybe 58 in front. But vs the weak 80-90-91 CC-train... doesn't look that promising. Maybe can work once if CC is weakened enough, gamble on when he will use the 4 man train instead of the 3. Or manage to drop part of the train. We'll see.

For the rest, looks like it will be a rather controlled GT again, sprint there's at least 2 teams that clearly should have interest in controlling, CC and Team Seven Down. fantasticos with a 87 sprinter and a GC favorite already announced that he's in for sprints too, makes sense, I'd do the same.
Mountain stages with fantasticos being the clear favorite, he might not be able or/and want to control all of them, so there probably will be chances for escapes there? But on the other hand he won't need to be at 1' of the front, but 3, 4" can be enough often before the final climb... we'll see
Middle mountain, no clue, are there any? Not much for Löffel I thought, he's here anyway. But ok, middle mountain stages often too open, nobody wants to control, so there another chance for escapes.


The Donkeys.... Apicella for GC, against Skeljvik hard. Apicella for stage, against Skeljvik hard. ARdila for white, don't really care but will be easy. He has that almost 100%. Gabel-Löffel for stages will be difficult of course, but if I could chose a stage win would be a sprint win really. Coderch, Espariat might get escape chances at some point, same for Stakhanov. Quaghebeur and Trewlove due to their low reg not likely.
Anyway, I think it's entirely possible that I'll end up with 0 wins again, good thing I stocked up in the Tour!

[Robyklebt]

Unfortunately not too much participation so far, 8 teams, but it's mainly fantasticos, CC, Seven Down and Big Donkey that are online. Romoc often too, Lula-Celt-Runners much more spotty. Let's hope for more participation next week.

As for the race, Skeljvik confirms his favorite status impressively so far, already a substantial lead, forgot how much, not going to check now, but somewhere between 1'30" and 2'? Doesn't look like he'll be in trouble anytime soon really.

Stage wins it's all CC Snel and fantasticos Skeljvik too. The only one to break in was the awesome Moritz Gabel, saving the Vuelta for the team already early on, with an impressive win. Clearly the performance of the Vuelta so far! Actually might really be, not because it actually is, but because Snel and Skeljvik win everything else so easily that it's Gabel with the most memorable win now Prologue won by the fantasticos prolog-man.

Week 2, highlights will be:
1) Who wins stages, shouldn't all be all Snel-Skeljvik, a few seem more for classics.
2) Is there a sprint next week? Walker for 30?`
3) Do we get another team winning something? Seven Down, Romoc for example.

[Robyklebt]

Interesting race yesterday, with Song from Runners a new winner too, excellent.

Worst case scenario for fantasticos at first, he had announced that he wasn't going to chase groups where nobody was a danger in GC, what happens... Branderhorst at under 10' goes. Coderch a bit further back goes too. And 4 CC and 4 runners, so a group that is big enough not to give up, thus forcing him to ride. But like in the Tour, celt then decided to chase too, so much better for fantasticos, otherwise his team probably today would be a bit weaker, and thus more open to attacks.

Final, instead of anticipating as the Donkey anticipated, CC stays happily in the front group, but attacks in the back with Sindarov, Nadlouho in his wheel. Chase by fantasticos, he got them in the last climb, attacked the next km, Apicella too, after a while Skeljvik waited, but in the end were caught by Seven Down, Celt and CC in the back.

In front, Coderch/Brandenhorst sieb at the first 9, only Song and Ouedraogo stay, green until the longer climb, all red, Ouedraogo drops, Song stays, ride green till the end, Coderch with 46 sprint takes breaks, sprint, Song for me surprisingly the strongest, with 49 sprint... thought that while he had more energy than the 2 classics, he probably still fought hard on the hill, thus not really having much more energy anymore. But he was strong. And Branderhorst actually a bit weak, form most likely, energy he can't have had that mch less than Coderch, who actually was stronger than him in the sprint. But behind in the result

Anyway, new winner, always good.

[flockmastoR]

Skeljvik didn't wait, apicella just caught him back.

[Robyklebt]

Oh, Skeljvik can't withstand Apicella's power! Great! I simply assumed he waited, since seemed to make more sense to ride together than 2-3" apart...

Yesterday interesting too, smaller group, Dahlberg for the stage, Snel for IS, Gabel along for the ride, but fantasticos showed that he was interested in winning that stage from the start really. Later an attack by Espariat-Coderch with 2 CC and Seven Down each, so a strong group, but fantasticos in the back didn't have any problems keeping that group close enough. 3" or so before the last km, maybe only 2. Ok, he had help by offine-Lula, without maybe it would have been 10"... still nowhere near enough to have a chance for the stage.

Today IMO looks good for a group again, the flat finish isn't for Skeljvik, classics, and while Otero with his sprint would be the favorite there, it's a much less "safe" win than the ones for Skeljvik, so I can imagine fantasticos taking it easier today, letting a group through again. But we'll see.

[Robyklebt]

Unexpected, complete control of the stage by fantasticos, Otero then with his stage win. But wasn't that easy, early group, so nonstop tempo, then after the first climb fantasticos let the big second group back, out of tempo, of course another attack went soon after, 1' back before the final climb, and saved itself over that climb. On the 14%:

Michele Apicella (Big Donkey) attackiert
Damian Harris (Team Seven Down) geht mit
Suero Skeljvik (fantasticos) schafft es nicht mitzugehen

How nice! Gabel stage win, Apicella drops Skeljvik, we're fully satisfied!
But possibly this attack killed the escape, without Apicella and Harris in front, Harris with 55 sprint, Branderhorst keeps riding in the downhill, pretty sure. And he's faster than Apirris, Now he took the downhill off, and in the end it was probably those seconds missing, 2-3" or maybe even only 1". But it was too tempting to try...
Maybe Harris-Apicella could have done a deal with Branderhorst, we don't sprint, only he and Lula, maybe Espariat too, then maybe it would have worked to save 2-3", but well, while for me ok, gaining 2" in GC better than nothing, for Seven Down I think here the stage was more important, he hasn't won one yet, no Gabel, just some Walker after all, and vs Skeljvik most of the time it looks hard... So here was an excellent chance. But well, nice stage anyway, and deserved winner finally.

[Robyklebt]

2nd week over

I found the second week quite interesting, especially the start. After that Snel with another stage, Apicella makes the Donkey very happy by actually winning a stage, Skeljvik at the reg limit helped, he had followed an earlier Sindarov-attack. And yesterday Otero with his second stage win.

So the domination by fantasticos continues, no idea how many stages he has, but many.

GC
Skeljvik
Apicella 1'33"
Harris 1'46"
Sindarov 3'20"

So Skeljvik seems safe. TT he doesn't lose anything, actually should me even marginally better than the others. And the 2 mountain stages are in his favour too. Can't see how Skeljvik can lose this to be honest. The podium seems fix too, nobody from further back seems to have a chance to land on the podium. Nadlohou the best TT guy too far back. Second place is open, but well, who cares, Harris can have it if he gives me a win.. (not sure how that is supposed to work, but seems fine to me)

Points jersey:
Snel 158
Skeljvik 143
Harris 139

This on the other hand is very open. Difficult for Snel to hang on, there is one stage that can end in a sprint, but with Snel more off than on in the last week will be difficult. Even if CC is the most active offliner ever so far! The 2 mountain top arrivals clearly for Skeljvik, so it will be the Otero stages where Harris can get it. Or intermediates.

Mountain jersey:
Skeljvik 44
Jedoksic 39
Apicella 34
So far nobody seemed to actually care, so Skeljvik? If Jedoksic starts trying for it now, he still has a chance. Apicella... ok, if he decides he wants to attack it by going for early GPMs maybe too, but that isn't the plan really.

Last week:
Tomorrow a almost completely flat stage with a 6 too close to the finish for Löffel. He'll not be far back, but won't have the time and the helpers to come back, Espariat-Coderch not strong enough in flat, Trewlove will lose too much... So: Otero or escape. Maybe because it's followed by a hard mountain stage this time fantasticos let's the escape through?
Wednesday: Lagos de Covadonga: 2 early climbs, possibility for an early attack there, but fantasticos team is good enough to cover normally. So favorite once again Skeljvik
Thursday: Gamoniteiru: Similar approach as the day before, 2 early climbs, early attacks possible. But a much harder finish, including a mountain+downhill just before the hard final climb. That makes early action more difficult. But who knows, maybe Apicella or Harris tries on one of those 2 days. But the favorite here too is Skeljvik
Friday: Middle mountain. Last 6 26km from the end, Löffel should be able to come back. Depending on fitness too. But the rest of the sprinters have chances too, how this stage goes will depend a lot on the fitness of the different teams and sprinters, can be anything from an early escape to a mass sprint with everybody. Favorite: WALKER (and Löffel too, yes! WE WANT JOHNNY Löffel, since Johnny Walker isn't here)
Saturday: Last mountain stage, looks good for Otero though. Really more of a middle mountain stage.
Sunday TT: Will the fantasticos TT guy be fit?
Saturday