Didn't bother me much not to win on Sunday (well early Monday here, after midnight I think?) that Lanz only got second, oh well, tried, didn't work, my own fault. But on Monday it kind of pissed me off. Delayed reactions, must be the age
So didn't write a report then, then forgot it...
Bearclaw and Medaglia in the race changed everything. All of the sudden Lanz was really a co-favorite. Without Medaglia he certainly had chances with his pavé, but with the lack of sprint all alone, more difficult. Like this, 2 teams with the same interest, normally have no problem arriving together and sprinting for it, 48-47 sprint, perfect. Then the 2 sprinters cast in the role of evil arch-enemies. Well, I didn't really think one of them could win to be honest. Neither with nor without Medaglia, but probably Medaglia in after all increased their chances? Because of these 2 groups the rest turned out to be in a sandwich... Not good enough to follow Medaglia-Lanz, in attacks, not enough flat to keep Oss away possibly. Without Medaglia they'd have been likely possible allies for Lanz, sort of, I wanted to drop them of course... but again, alone very difficult. But they would have had only to deal with the Donkey, not with Bearclaw too, let the Donkey beat the sprinters, then beat him. Like this, no, they had to create their chance. So Gipfel was fucked from the start, we all know Liquigas isn't able to do that. Doubtful he'd even collaborate with Gipfel if Gipfel had managed to really create a situation where Donkey and Bear, CC and Mosca are in trouble or asking the other "team" to work. Difficult position in the sandwich anyway, but if one of the guys there then usually does nothing at all unless he's the topfavorite, it's really pretty much hopeless.
So expected at least a rather big early group. No, nothing, Furpach, but alone, completely hopeless. Donkey starts, stops, Mosca restarts, then Donkey rejoins. I probably rode most in the chase, but doesn't matter at all, all groups were so far from actually being a danger that don't think that hurt me in any way. Ah ,yes, 6 energy for Lanz. But less the working, more the keeping 1 helper too long. 1 helper, T Mobster mentions 1 is not enough, ah, Lanz 2. He gets to 100, then change that second helper to either Moretti or Stakhanov, kept it there too long, was at 994 before the first pavé. Grrr.
Nothing happening much, Gipfel tries, but that was so far that unless we completely fall asleep in the back that attempt had no chance. Probably sieb and keep riding a bit, attack after the chasers are back better?
One annoying but in the end irrelevant Donkey mistakes somewhere there.. riding with Totakhyl. Wanted to keep Trewlove as a threat. He started at 928, so helper all the way, so not fit, but he looks scary. Ride with Totakhyl lots of pavé... after it's finished.. DAMN. Trewlove was fighting the whole fucking way, killed 2 riders instead of 1. Should have ridden with Trewlove. But didn't matter much.
Arenberg: Nothing happening. I really wanted to sieb with Lanz, but.... my team just not good enough. Top leader. 2 good decent helpers, Moretti and Stakhanov (I'd like them with more flat, but they were good enough) The problem was after, 75 next, no flat, or unfit. I really would have liked to have 77 next, 1 or 2. Like this if I sieb at the Foret.... there is a small risk I end up with 3 riders for a period of time, if somebody with 4 or 5 thinks that's a good chance to weaken the Donkeys at least and rides a bit, I risk chasing for 10-15 km and have my 2 star helpers weakened. No good. Of course with Liquigas being the guy with the best team for that it was unlikely to happen, but still... no risk there. No sieb, with another 77 I would have.
Then the final: Lanz started siebing earlier than the Carrefour, km 231. ****. Reason simple, just on the 2 ***** I'm sure I can't drop everybody, make them fight here. Then km 239+240, 4 pavé as well. And the they are hopefully ripe to drop 242-243 on the 5. That km cost me 13 energy, from 810 to 797. Really should have siebed km 234 as well, think that was the plan, thought I did it, but seems I didn't. Bad. Siebing good! Then rode up with Moretti, and he rode. That IMO probably cost me more energy with regards to Medaglia than the siebing. 232 to 238 without helper, was surprised to see the energy down to 776 (?) at around 236, but well, with the pavé in there in between normal I think. But IMO there I lost another 5 or more energy points to Medaglia, having no helper. But normal, we needed his no 2, Olsen, for the km between the 2 4 pavé and the 2 5. Ok, nobody and rely on others there might work too, but safety.. .seemed wiser to keep him there.
Sieb again at the 4, then the 5, and ok, there in retrospect I should have asked Tyler to ride too in the last 2 km there, Carrefour de l'Arbre together, since it seems he was stronger by then... But don't regret the siebs, even if they probably gave Tyler the energy advantage he needed to win. To maximise my chances, and Tyler's at the same time too of course, IMO doing the pre-siebs was very important, they lose more energy than Lanz by fighting, they will be weaker later.
2 guys stayed, bah. Second 4 earlier enough? Or a nice Arenberg? Or maybe not, anyway they stay. At that moment thought that probably attacking after all would have been better. Far, costs energy, but since that was already lower, bad weather, so lower than in many other years, good for attacks.
But ok, what to do, go out, obviously. Gipfel with vanTWout goes in for the *, LiqLiq with VanHout not. Those 2 together with us, 52+55 sprint if I remember correctly. And now they needed to go in. Why? It was their only chance. Then we can talk about what will happen once they are in and we rejoin (Lanz would have). Medaglia and Lanz promise not to attack on the remaining ***? Or we threaten to attack? But then for them tempo doesn't make that much sense... (even if those 2 blocking would have blocked better than what Oss did later) No attack but yes alone, we then go out after that km would have been ok for me, although with doubts it would work, Liquigas with the best sprint and asked to ride often doesn't work.... so ... anyway, it didn't work. After the * Gipfel went out again, Liquigas in, saw that Gipfel went out, so out again after 10", nobody in tempo for the km, caught by the sprinters.
Oss riding, lat ***. Lanz attacks. I was thinking about it for a moment, what if he ends up ahead? But.... it was more Lanz than Medaglia that had done the race so far, what if he relies on Lanz there for the attack? So waited to see if he went in to "signal" the attack, he didn't, I didn't feel like signalling either, so attack, 1" behind that was it. No reason at all for Tyler to wait of course, IMO was clear we would both go through, 6" advantage for Tyler. Made it 11" until the end. Lanz, and this pissed me off even on Sunday, lost another 7", finished at 8. With presumably the same form (Amstel) and as it turned out not really that much less energy. 25 we calculated, 453 vs 428? Or something like that, after the sprint. Ok, my attack cost me a bit more, maybe even the tempo, although at those level ususally it isn't much... so 30? 35? Bah, really hoped to be at the same level there. Early 6 points, the siebs where Medaglia probably did lose less, but how much? The lack of helper when Moretti rode, all together was just a bit too much. Really should have relied on Medaglia in retrospect. Was clear that the attack had to go there. So he goes. But thought well, if he doesn't go.. we're fucked. We go, 75% we're together, turns out I was wrong and I was behind.
The 8", partly all the +1 and especially -1, there Medaglia is stronger with his downhill... So Lanz really beaten more clearly than he deserved IMO. Still ok in losing it like that rather than in the sprint that promised to be stressfull, even if there was only 1 move that seemed to make sense for both in the sprint... Just not 8 seconds, like 4" ok, 8" is an insult. At least saved second place, usually I don't care much if it's 2nd or 5th, 3rd or 8th if I don't win, but well here I thought 2nd was good enough, better than 3rd. If in the back Würtz and LIm both had ridden wouldn't have gotten even that. And if LiqLiq or Gipfel had tried to block the last pavé they might even had a small chance to get back Tyler, small though, very small. But blocking for them really would have made no sense at all.
Finally a pretty tame edition for the most part, only action in the end, I like that it was a pavé rider winning solo, even if it was the wrong one.
Next year!
Today Brabant, Tyler is there again, Lanz is sitting on his wheel in the peloton right now. And plans to do nothing else all day.
First the troll, then Moja and Mosca attacked from the peloton, wasn't completely sure what the point was in all 3 cases, serious attacks or trying to bring riders over? But well, had to ride and chase then. Which didn't really hurt me either at this point, the helpers down in energy weren't going to get over the Kemmelberg anyway. Sieb by Totakhyl at the Kemmelberg, 3 hill sprinters in front, the flat sprinter in the back. Trying to get back, but inept chasing there really. Early when not everybody seemed convinced to ride yet, took me going out to get the 2 others in, then riding with not super fit guys, he kept his 2 good helpers in front. Dropping them at a point where Lanz could be used already... dropped to late. In front biggest danger then was that the Mosca sprinter, Würtz Schmidt, would follow an attack by Falkenbier... but didn't. Kuusk tried, got up to 4", but think even Lanz on yes alone could have possibly gotten him back after a few km with all, probably energy wise already the same. But Oss 89 did the job. Sprint, Moja with a train, a stupid sprint out at some point too, Schnell was so strong that he didn't need that to devalue his win really. Löffel at 200, thought at 150 probably Schnell goes himself, but no chance at all, even if Schnell didn't go at 150 but only Löffel, he still would have gotten him easily. Third position too far back, but as well Schnell just very very strong. He even could take a break on Löffels wheel for 50 meters, risking that Würtz gets it, but he flew past him again in the last 50 meters Third place finally for Löffel. There really wasn't anybody else I could ride for there, maybe escape, but with my other sprint values.. hard. 
No early group. Later Nopik goes with one rider. BBRC chasing a little. First 7% nobody siebed. Everything working fine for me. Plan was to keep it together until 3***,-2***. That worked out as Leso siebed only at the 8%. Otokar and a rider of BBRC brought back the group from behind.
But at 4* it's critical for him anyway. Hoped for the classic long range attack that seems to be standard winning tactic at Brabant in the last years (I thought I did something special 2 or 3 years when I won like that, but seems most of the wins were like that lately).
But Strade Bianche and the Flèche Wallonne is nice too, I'm actually satisfied with my spring classic campaign. RVV, DDV, E3 were... bah, pretty much a disaster, but not an unexpected one, for the rest all was sort of ok. Eiffel not following a big mistake. Lanz attacking himself at PR too, but there it's almost more understandable, Eiffel here the bigger mistake. Even if his chances to win were smaller if he did all right than Lanz's were.