Next Gen Stats – Discussion & Feedback Thread

[flockmastoR]

Welcome to the Next Gen Stats – Discussion & Feedback Thread

This thread is meant to be the central discussion space for the article series Next Gen Stats – The Numbers Behind the Peloton.

The idea behind separating this from the main thread is simple:
the main thread will only contain the articles themselves, while all discussion, feedback, questions and ideas belong right here. This keeps the articles clean, readable and easy to follow.

How this works

New articles will be posted in the main Next Gen Stats – The Numbers Behind the Peloton thread in a season and episode format. There will be recurring topics grouped into seasons. One of these formats already existed before in a different context, for example the yearly statistics of the Division 1 winners, which used to be posted in my team thread but never really fitted there, see [1-3]

Other topics will be covered as connected article series focused on one specific theme. The first of these will be Debunking Training Myths, where I plan to publish a sequence of posts about expectation management and what the numbers actually say about realistic training outcomes. Sometimes I will use in-game data directly, sometimes statistics scraped from the web, and sometimes information from the game database itself to dig a bit deeper.

For every article, you can come here to ask questions, challenge assumptions, suggest follow-up analyses, or request new topics. I am sure there are many good ideas out there, and there are already quite a few statistics-nerds active in the game and the forum. Before the first articles go live, this thread is also open for support, criticism, and discussion, as well as topic requests, things you always wanted to see analyzed, and mechanics you suspect might be misunderstood.

If you enjoy data as much as I do – this is your place.

References
[1] 2024 - World Tour winners
[2] 2023 - World Tour winners
[3] 2022 - World Tour winners

[Bugatti]

Thank you for all the work you put into this. I'm looking forward to the posts.
Maybe it's already in the works, but if not, maybe another episode in Season 1 is possible.
Episode 1: 2025 – World Tour winners Teams
Episode 2: 2025 - World Tour winners Riders
A few big names, such as Makhamadzhonov, Sukuna etc. should also find a place here for fame and glory.

[flockmastoR]

Thank you for all the work you put into this. I'm looking forward to the posts.
Maybe it's already in the works, but if not, maybe another episode in Season 1 is possible.
Episode 1: 2025 – World Tour winners Teams
Episode 2: 2025 - World Tour winners Riders
A few big names, such as Makhamadzhonov, Sukuna etc. should also find a place here for fame and glory.

Thanks for the feedback. I am actually thinking about a rider centric statistics report too this year.

[Tukhtahuaev]

Debunking training myths sounds like the most interesting to me. We need a scientific base for our complaints

[bergwerk cycling]

really nice Report! GW and Respect to Tukh for 2025 btw

[Hansa]

#3 Pokemonogatari - One for all, all for one
Division 1 Titles: 3
Races: 346
Total Points Collected: 65,430
Avg. Points Per Race: 190.8

something is off with this numbers as 65430/346 doesnt equal 190.8

which of these numbers is wrong you probably can figure out better than me^^

The series i would like is a 2026 Div winner prediction.

[r FSCL]

Really nice Report! Thx for all your work WZF.
I'm curious to see what you'll prepare for us next

[drei.zehn]

Damn I was waiting for that 2025 recap.
Thanks for that, I love it
And also very on point imo, especially the Firiam part!

Hoping for a 2026 preview too!

[flockmastoR]

#3 Pokemonogatari - One for all, all for one
Division 1 Titles: 3
Races: 346
Total Points Collected: 65,430
Avg. Points Per Race: 190.8

something is off with this numbers as 65430/346 doesnt equal 190.8

which of these numbers is wrong you probably can figure out better than me^^

The series i would like is a 2026 Div winner prediction.

Hm need to check those numbers again. Ok its 188.5, thanks for checking the numbers, did a duplicate from your points average.

Well didn't do a prediction last year. My prediction the year before wasn't that far off in total. Will think about it but needs some time checking the squads for 2026.

r TAKA, stevens, Alkworld, Pokemonogatari, r QUICK

outsider chances: Hansa, Alive And Dead, Black-Star (nice young climber duo),

So lets compare 2024 to your prediction

r TAKA indeed could win January (not that hard to predict) pretty surprising that even with a good year taka couldnt win it more often.
Alkworld indeed was able to win the Div 1 title too, just once but still got that prediction right.
same for Pokemon saving your prediction in the last Moment even so Fring wasnt that guy, but Pokes young dynamic climber trio did the deal.

stevens was nowhere close to his past perfmormance and not able to win the Div 1 crown in 2024

r Quick thought as succesor for Freeteam in the one day domination, i guess, had some succes with winning 3 monuments and some more classics it still wasnt enough to compete for the Division 1 title.

For your outsiders:

Hansa won once was close another couple times

Alive and Dead won 5 times so i guess calling him an outsider should be counted as a miss here.

Black-Star indeed wasnt able to win but came very close multiple times, the closest in November, when he wasnt able to close it out to lose the title to Bugatti. Another 3 second places in January, February and December made him a good pick for a potential Division 1 candidate.

Now we want to hear you 2025 prediction too so we can compare that next Year with the actual result.

My predicition for 2025 are:

Pokemonogatari great team, interesting climbers experienced manager should be able to get his 20th Div 1 win.

Alkworld, not much to say here, probably the safest Pick of them all.

Alive and Dead, with Firiam you only need a decent team around him so it should be possible to get some more Division 1 wins, probably overtaking Hansa for the 4th most Div 1 titles of All time.

My other picks would be:

Black-Star, good balanced and strong team, hopefully this year he can close out on that First Division 1 win.

Stevens, finally coming back in the Division 1 fight, might be able to take one of these titles.

Tukh, good team could also ba able to take a Div 1 title early in the year (January prediciton is difficult currently with the buggy stats.

and finally,

r Quick, expected to take some wins in the classics throughout the year so should be a contender in the spring, probably wont be in contention in the GT-Tour Month.

Tukh was the only score from your last year's prediction. See how hard predicting the future is

[Falcor CC]

He got Poke right too

[Hansa]

He got Poke right too

see thats 50% right xD

[drei.zehn]

We want the prediction!!!

[flockmastoR]

We want the prediction!!!

I give you a poll, lets see what you all think and we can all compare the votes with next years winners.

unfortunately just 20 options possible, so used the current division 1 teams and the 2 teams from division 2 with the most division 1 titles

[Let's Go]

We want the prediction!!!

I give you a poll, lets see what you all think and we can all compare the votes with next years winners.

unfortunately just 20 options possible, so used the current division 1 teams and the 2 teams from division 2 with the most division 1 titles

That's racist

[Elaska]

I don't think I can win any div 1. I can't unfortunately take part in almost all tours.

[Falcor CC]

Luca Parri will now train to a 90 and prove you wrong!

[Hansa]

Luca Parri will now train to a 90 and prove you wrong!

You are not even good enough to appear in that poll.

[Chemnitz Pro Cycling Team]

Grry forgot to vote for Donkey.