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The 85 can follow the 86 attack, which means he's not much weaker
But with 57 sprint he loses vs 49, I dont really understand...
Is 11% always unpredictable ?

No, but with 11 %, the sprint skill doesn't really count anymore. So it's mainly the mountain skill that counts (+ energy, form).

Yes, that´s true. Furthermore it could be that Hernandez lost more energy by following than Maasen by attacking.