Morning, Morning, Löffel used to win almost every race he did there too! But nice to see at least an afternoon guy continuing to show those morning people how to win.
Afternoon
10 teams, 9 that actually rode.
Donkey with 3 guys in the category. Argh, just a bit too weak:
Bieri, if Gipfel, then joined by Manghi later maybe tries to go for the classics, then Bieri won't be there, he'll be in the Mobster group.
Löffel: With Nödtveidt or behind him? Due to Löffel's higher flat I had hopes to just manage to stay there. Just realized now that actually Nödtveidt has higher flat

But then luck? Helping? Form? Anyway, was with him, so that worked.
Gabel: Behind Bosilj, weaker classic, strong flatman but Falkenbier has the same. So will he wait? Does he really need me? Not really... the advantage having me there is that there is a train, you can rely on. Without me Mosca-train possible, but he has done trick sprints in the past, so... and in this situation me doing a train was pretty clear. Then if Bosilj gets the wheel.. chances there.
So my tactic was clear, do absolutely nothing until I'm dropped on the Cipressa and don't mess up my helpers.
Failed on both counts, after nothing at all had happened until the Turchinosiebkm, I couldn't resist and siebed with Carpinteiro. 4 riders dropped, a great success, had the first tempo km, the first sieb, moral winner already.
Failed on helping too, that is almost embarrassing. First managed to bring Löffel down to 980, checked a bit what and how in the first 10 km, saw that changing the helpers wasn't a great idea, left the Löffel helper on the wrong guy. Next after giving Löffel 2 helpers in the downhill from the Turchino, it was Espariats turn to suffer. Plan was Gabel, Löffel, Meucci fit, 1000. Espariat 980/70 or so. Bieri 950 or less, depending how often Espariat could be without helper. Anyway, Espariat went down to 930 until I realized that probably after the Turchino I had done the wrong thing again....
Km 154 finally an attack, 2 Gipfels, followed by a Falkenbier and a Liquigas.
Good reaction by Manghi who went in when it was a bit over 4' advantage. Mobster waited, IMO should have gone in together there, Skoglund and McDonald the 2 guys to be sure to be ahead after the Cipressa. And depending on who they help they could even try to go it alone from there.
Mobster finally joined about 20 km later, I didn't see why he waited that long really. Is not like he had more guys to protect, he has Ritzinger and Kohl, plus one classic... if he had a second Ritzinger, ok, let Manghi do it after talking it over, but like this seemed very unnecessarily "Mobster style".. (Says the guy who did the first sieb and nothing else)
Semper then joined immediately too, he on the other hand had reason not to, he was going to be behind those 2 after a sieb. But show goodwill and they wait, ok. Anyway, group easily under control
Km 221 next 2 Gipfel go, followed by another Falke and this time a Lünen. Monsterman Thijs there, 4 trainings to survive till PR, still 88, but already -2 flat... Thijs being pulled, likely something else was coming. Stronger reaction in the back, keeping them close.
Km 239, Capo Mele, Abbiati and Savoie go, now 6 Gipfel in front, puller Thijs ready. Savoie clearly not helped, Abbiati looking good on the other hand. SAvoie on Cervo, rest Thijs, advantage up to 38" from under 10 before Capo Berta.
Gained a bit more there with Savoie, but then it came back to 36" before the Cipressa. Good reaction in the back by the 3 hills sprinters. Gipfel attack probably better later? Capo Berta seemed predestined for it, but of course knowing that a block there seemed likely, but probably not a strong one.. and then a fit Thijs probably can bring the advantage up to the same level, but everybody slightly fitter. Anyway, good attack that never looked like it could really become dangerous.
Cipressa: On top the Gipfelgroup 1" behind Hoppe the lone Lünen.
38" back, the Skoglund McDonald group, both with 3 helpers
47" back the Nödtveidtgroup, with Löffel. Here IMO a big difference, bigger than expected. In this group IMO a mistake by Semper, Kelvin not there, he should have been the fourth man, with 85 flat 76 downhill. Instead Veteläinen with the same mountain, 66 but 79 flat and 55 downhill. 63 sprint, but forget that as an 80 sprinter vs 2 82 guys you rely on the other guys anyway for the train.
48" back the Liquigroup. HIlariously without the sprinter... 60-57 mountain, his flat helper 56-85, you need to have him help the sprinter there, 6% flat counts. Quite a lot. Maybe too much, but that's how it is. Big mistake, and changes the whole race. Because with his climber there vs Sempers lack of classic, he comes back to Semper.
49" the Liquisprinter
50" Vanspeybrouck and Mosca helpers 56-74
53" Bosilj-armada
54" Gabel-"armada".
Here surprised at how big the difference between Manghimobster and SEmper is, while surprised how close it is between that group and Bosilj-Gabel. Only 7" back? Less than I thought.
After the 5
37" the first group
46" Nödtveidt with Löffel
51" Mosca-Falkenbier-Donkey.
Espariat not as fit as wanted as mentioned before, but 100 form, so good, gained 2" on the first group.
There Manghi out, Mobster in. If Manghi does another km, it's probably quite a difference, Nödtveidt over 10" back, the sprinters 18" not 14".
Here communication problem between Mobster and Manghi, turns out Manghi was right (during the race I would have done the same as Mobster though, 9" seems a LOT, and no classic to make tempo, the sprinters come closer...) But if they would have done it the Mobster/Donkey way it might have worked too, more advantage, fuck semper, sorry but the sprinters are too close... instead they did a mix, one wanted to wait, one ride, finally the worst decision. Communication boys.
Next km 6" and 11" back
Ritzinger in, 7" and 12"
Downhill: 6-12"
Then they waited and 7"
After the downhill still 7", slowly went down, they saved 2" to the bottom of the Poggio.
Poggio: Great Mbule, kept it at 2" in the first 2 km, then miraculously won 2" on the last 4? No idea why. STrong Vespa attack too, 4" gained, a mystery why the Manghirider that km seemed to collapse? It was Mbule vs Ellen the 2 previous km too.
Even without the greatest classic rider in the history of c4f, Mbule, maybe the flat power in the back could have caught them in the last kms? Maybe, maybe not.
Sprint, pretty straightforward really. Train Bieri-Löffel-Gabel. Vanspeybrouck on the wheel, then Bosilj. Then McDonald. Guarantees that nobody can go early really, the likely result already there was Gabel vs Vanspreybrouck for the win. Biggest danger getting blocked. But unlikely with my own train. Early suicidal try by Liquigas, but blocked, otherwise could have been dangerous.
Intersting finale, decisive IMO:
-Liquigas not understanding the race even in his 700st try. He always has a top contender, always fails miserably. Today just the right helper settings change all. No guarantee he wins, no guarantee he even sprints for the win, but he then is together with Semper. And he had a good team to ride. Anyway, the whole race changes, and he's chances are there. Yes yes, harsh words, today's mistake can happen, I had Espariat in the train at first, no sprint for Gabel... but realized it in my last check.. uff. Today can happen, but LiqLiq has ridden MSR incredibly badly before, so he deserves the criticism.
-Split Manghi-Mobster: Re-seeing it I think going without Semper could have worked too after all. Or waiting immediately too But not doing the same cost them quite a few seconds.
-The mysterious 2" by Mbule superstar on the last 4. Did Manghi take out yes alone? Or why?
Lesser things, no Kelvin, too much help in the back from Liquigas considering his rather small chances in a full sprint (lack of flat means he won't get the wheel he wants most likely)
For me everything worked perfectly, luck in every situation finally, if Bosilj decides to go without me... ok, had Löffel in front for the sprint, but doubt that one would have worked. Falkenbier and Mosca did a great job in the back, me less, but well, Meucci at 100 form and fit surely didn't hurt either. Espariat at 100 form and sadly not fully fit a bit less, but still, gained 2" in his one important km...(Mbule would have gained 2 or 3 on Espariat most likely... so almost there without me too...
Maybe the most intersting MSR of the last few years at c4f, bad start, very interesting finale, that's why it's my favorite classic to ride. The great thrill of the last 50 km, yes, including the km before the Cipressa, when you ask yourself more and more how it will work out, who will do what etc. Favorite classic. Not to win (that's PR) somehow not too excited that I won, but big part of that is Mohoric, the real race, adrenalin already at 1000 from watching the real MSR, at the moment didn't care much, now already a bit happier...