Tour de France 14h

[Robyklebt]

Donkey at the start, the team is still a mystery.

Habib Belhassen: Classic
Armand Brotcorne: Star flat rider
Oisin Swift: Man with flat and reg.

Those 3 are sure.

Antinori: Probably leader. Or no start, training on the 27th!
Larios: No 2? No start? After all he'll do the Vuelta. Or no 1?
Bogarin: Seems likely
Lafargue: French, wants to be there.
Totakhyl: Second classic... needed?
Faye: Young classic, 60-80 (sort of) now
Krankl: 60-80,
Nägele: 60-80

Still thinking, the question is 2+2 or 2+1 or 1+2 for the climbers/classics. Usually want to be a bit weaker for the Tour, so while 2+2 seems logic, somehow prefer to avoid it, but might do it anyway...

[gaurain rx]

There/not there... haha, now the team want to let a bit of suspens about that

Lineup is quite easy to make actually ... oldies (Prieur, Jung) + Prévois would be out of contest

DeRoy as leader again, he doesn't have the skills for it but he's tyrannic, it helps to get the best position inside the team;
Thirifays for his first GT start, maybe going for white, depends of the countenders;
Claeys : he still has plenty of stuffs to explain to Brotcorne;
Bouckhaert : The escaper
Liboton, Lambot and VanLooy the 60-80 with no reg
Rousseau and Gourdin for the flat and downhill parts

but ok, still quite unlikely we start, but you never know

[luques]

Who knows?

[Novostil]

Hi,

I will ride here. One question, my rider Fernandez has 24 years now (June). Can he win the white jersey on July with 25?

[Liquigas-CND]

Hi,

I will ride here. One question, my rider Fernandez has 24 years now (June). Can he win the white jersey on July with 25?

NO

[Robyklebt]

Team decided

F. Antinori
H. Belhassen
T. Bogarin
A. Brotcorne
B. Faye
G. Lafargue
A. Nägele
O. Swift
I. Totakhyl

So no Larios, only one climber. Larios will do the Vuelta. Faye in, Aix said he should.

[Liquigas-CND]

Liquigas-CND back in business!
The team is rather weak for TDF but as we won't be so active most likely that's a very good point.

1. Beltran Barrientos (Peru) _ 30 yo _ 87-58-68-53-51-48 reg _ our GC leader;
2. Davide Cattaneo (Italy) _ 29 yo _ 78-80-53-48-43-35 reg _ lacks downhill, lacks reg ...not that good as Cristobal Fuenzalida or Gaetano Leggio but this is what we have. He will try to win a stage maybe;
3. Fredrik Soderberg (Sweden)_ 28 yo _ 63-67-76-46-77-36 reg _ our "sprinter" and hopefully budget saver;
4. Fabio Volpe (Italy) _ 26 yo _ 68-81-76-51-62-45 reg _ Champion of Italy..a strange guy...;
5. Dario Castaldelli (Italy) _ 29 yo _ 67-81-71-48-52-36 reg _ Fabio's best friend. Their teammates suspect Fabio and Dario are more than friends.
6. Ali Rezaei (Iran) _ 26 yo _ 59-84-78-54-52-37 reg _ He comes from Iran ... few days ago he threatened the management that in case he is not part of the TDF team he might blow up the team's autocar. As a ressult he is in Nice.
7. Alvaro Trujillo (Spain) _ 33 yo _ 51-86-50-50-60-37 reg - our "Torero"
8. Ramiro Sotomayor (Bolivia) _ 21 yo _ 59-76-76-64-63-45 reg - The "Young Gun 1"
9. Ettore Calvino (Italy) _ 21 yo _ 59-77-66-54-53-48 reg - The "Young Gun 2"

Salaries: 486'304. A bit more than planned but still ok not to lose a lot.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Three changes compared to the Giro. Einarsson, Cooper and Myyry (all helpers essentially) are replaced by Vandenbroucke (47-86 flat helper), VanDerVeen (77 sprint, 21years, future sprinter) and Brandt (63-78, 22years, future classic).

Theo THORNQUIST
Quirin QUATHAMMER
Jacob JEFFERSON
Bastien BOULANGER
Bartholomäus BRANDT
Boas BERGSTEINSSON
Adrian ARVIDSSON
Dries VANDERVEEN
Vic VANDENBROUCKE

Goal is to have fun and to win one stage, ideally with JJ. He is really old and weak now (67mountain, 78 sprint) compared to his top skills (72mountain, 83 sprint). But race win #60 would be nice to become sole 2nd best rider in RSF history. If he can't do, he stays together with Ludvig Quist (Wookie) at 59 wins. That's OK, too.

On the peloton: Only 9 teams unfortunately, but we will have fun for sure. More analysis later.

[Robyklebt]

BOGARIN

Gipfel goes for it, but didn't get any help. Didn't expect him to try, but looking at all this more closely, made sense, yep. But Jeffersons CICLAMINO quest goes over the intermediates anyway, so not trying would have been ok too I guess.

LiqLiq for Söderberg, obviously not. Donkey for Bogarin, not either, normally probably would but here... with Söderberg not working normally little help, but with Gipfel's rolling train my chances to win are rather minimal, 59 sprint starts, takes it easy till 300, then 50 or 100 meters, then Boulanger.. chances to win it close to 0. Makes no sense to ride for that. Rather help Lafargue to come back, but since Brotcorne stayed in front only some little Faye help. All back together, plan a is the double attack Brotcorne-Lafargue, Brotcorne has mouse problems and doesn't attack, Lafargue caught immediately. Plan b my own train, Belhassen, fit for that-Lafargue, attacked so weakened but trying doesn't hurt and Bogarin last. After all with Gipfel not having his third sprinter there made my own train more comparable to his.
Weird sprint, no other train... Gipfel doesn't use his 59-64 helpers for Boulanger-Jefferson but hangs on De Roy. So far ok, bu then neither tries to hang on anywhere. Letting Belhassen-Lafargue do their thing, Bogarin wins, a more or less gifted win. There were quite a few possibilities to get further in front for Gipfel or Feiting too, but somehow both seeemed not to want to carry the other up. Thus losing points... Now Bogarin clearly in front 50 'points, Jefferson has 14, De Roy 2... Jefferson still the favorite, again, it's the intermediate that should be his biggest friend, but for the moment Bogarin now clearly has to try to defend this.

GC, Antinori 88, some random LiqLiq 87, then 85-85. Looks rather possible that a Pincemail like escape gains enough time, but we will see later how much we ride for LiqLiq. Donkey will of course start of riding for Antinori, but might stop it at some point.

[Robyklebt]

First 4 days over.

Low form for my leaders, Bogarin had TdS form. He didn't ride, not sure why I put form there in the first place, here would be much better. But well, didn't change anything. Bogarin-show!
Grinamino is safe, won, in the closet! For June... 91 points, escaper Daalgard 67, Boulanger-Jefferson 64-56. So keeping it tomorrow seems likely. Even if I still don't know the points... 50, then? Long term.... Jefferson will weaken further, but with his train, that is just too superior, he might not win each time, not double win each time pretty sure, but he will be up there regularly. Do the Donkey train? Well, yes, then he has to go earlier, (or change to my wheel) and harder to win vs the 90-87-86 sprinters of course, but.... I rather lose a place than win one I fear, but well, we'll see. Always the same sprint is boring too after all.
But in theory I'm not opposed to sprints, will help a bit. After all I got my stage win thanks to a combined present by DeRoy and Jefferson. And Jefferson is nice in not sprinting at intermediates sometimes too!

GC: Barrientos, who else. Dominant and superior, and already 30" advantage. Uncatchable, unbeatable, I should give up now Funny to see LiqLiq losing it when somebody does what he does every single time....
30" are 30" a bit worrying, stupid helping the other day, was convinced I had taken it out. Fighting in for Belhassen, helping out for Antinori (he just helped a short time too, 10 km max) Either my annoying mouse or I simply only looked at it, but actually remember clicking there... mouse! Anyway, 9" lost for nothing. Today another 15", hoped less actually. Tactics...
Plan A ride in the back, but "miscalculate" and let the group through. No bonifcations. That was destroyed soon by LiqLiq, he clearly speculated on my low form, with him riding clear he had high or higher form then. And knew it. Not sure if he rode Dauphiné or TdS, looked at his palmarès, nothing, except lots of high quality RKL fantasy races. So no clue, either topform or Dauphiné which is still better than my 87..
Plan B Attack at the first km. The Etna tactic, as there it didn't work. Attack, not ride, caught (had he attacked there, would have been more time, so ok) Then attack again, speculate on Thirifays with more energy being stronger than Barrientos and have him carry me up. Didn't work, grr, I blame Thirifays, Belgians really are special, highly unreliable, talented, but a pain in the ass. After the second attack, 4" advantage. In the back Roche in tempo, 85, followed the first but not the second attack. Thirifays tried a late tempo, but too late, 25" back. Had he been in in time... I was caught my Metz, another 85 who was 3" back before, landed at 8". With Thirifays IMO it's rather less? But then ok, probably he goes out again, after that he has no interest in pulling me, so in the end it's 1-2" difference... and he gets third place, or second, Roche third, I'm fourth, 4" lost. Good man Thirifays! Not going in.
Plan C: Do nothing, tempo with Belhassen, wait for his attack. Start tempo at the second 8? Probably lose less this way, unless he goes at the first 8 or the 6 Probably C was better than B, but wanted to try the Etna plan again.

Now, GC is mostly between Barrientos and Antinori. Training important, if I'm down to 87 or he up to 88, or both, oh horror, then I'm in trouble. Team... 78-80 vs 74-80, but mine has downhill. Then 71-73, unfit forever, with 73 flat he doesn't recover well either... LiqLiq then with 68 + 67 montain, my army then 63-63-61. Liq 63, then 3 guys just below 60, at 59. So.... team somehow doesn't look to be decisive, both without that much reg, me slightly better, but really slightly... 48-45-45 for LiqLiq, 59-67-59 the mountain. Me 45-41-40, 63-74-63 the mountain.. so he's a bit better there actually.. .but well, same shit, ride hard once, dead. So it's a fight between the leaders often, 88 vs 87, better TT for Barrientos, better flat that can make a difference (probably today too ,but little, I went back to 985 at one point, he probably had 1000, if I had put the second helper on Antinori earlier probably I'm at over 990 easily too. I have the mountain. He has the sprint... I have the reg... 30" not unsurmountable, but well, the 9" the other day hurt. Gaining 2" and 4" boni a few times brings us back closer, we'll see.
Damn, TT long, 36 km, hadn't noticed yet, hm, looks like another 40"-45" to gain... 1'15" back aaah, uncatchable, unbeatable!

We'll see.. .the others. Roche and Metz 85, little reg, under 40, TT 49-50.. difficult for them. Depends how much Barrientos and Antinori look at each other basically. But with so little reg and not experienced managers... I'd give them little chances.
Thirifays, no team, 81 mountain, but young, will very likely go up, and a proven winner. So would give him better chances than Roche/Metz. Experienced manager, he can possibly profit from a Liqqing Donkey stalemate.

Classics... since it's entirely possible that LiqLiq is in his "I'm not riding" phase once the form advantage is gone, and since it's equally possible that the Donkey is in a pigheaded phase and doesn't ride either... some Thornquist? Don't really expect it though, with no TT would need quite a lot of time.

So the situation

***** Barrientos
****
***
** Antinori
* Thirifays
0,5 Roche, Metz, Thornquist, Belhassen, Bogarin.

Hihi, after reading this LiqLiq should have a heart attack and go ranting and raging, so my chances immediately increase

***** Barrientos
**** Antinori (the threat of downtraining makes Barrientos the safer bet right now, without it it's more equal, even if Antinori is still 1'10" or more down)
***
** Thirifays
* Roche, Metz, Thornquist, Belhassen, Bogarin
0,5 Brotcorne

[Robyklebt]

Ah, another thing, offlining.
Big Donkey will go to Kyoto on Saturday, come back on Wednesday... So Saturday, Sunday, the all important rest day and Tuesday....
a) app: Today did a km 1 or so attack with Totakhyl from the app... so I'll try to avoid the app. and on Saturday I might be eating or still on the way to the sleeping place when the race starts.
b) My wifes old laptop. Her new one is anti-flash, she refuses to install it.. and doesn't like me playing around with it anyway. Just saw her old one, will test it out until friday to see if that one works, might try with it.
c) offline settings
d) sitter, but haven't had one for ages and am rather anti-sitter, so that's unlikely. Plus it's weekend, had it been weekdays I might have forced FL to do it (I would have good arguments) but weekends he's busy peeing in the swimming pool or other cool stuff.

So that speaks for LiqLiq too. And since I won't have a rest day either (usually on c4f rest days I do a real life one too, get up at 16h, back to bed at 18h, just to have all the energy later), I won't be at my best after that either.

[Gipfelstuermer]

First 4 stages over, enthusiasm much lower than for Giro, to be honest. Multiple reasons: Firstly, Giro felt like "anti-Corona, let's ride it", TDF feels like "have to ride it, while real TDF follows soon". Secondly, I am switching around between playing from the office, playing while working from home and playing on the weekend, so means switching around between App, Puffin, Opera, Internet Explorer.... kind of annoying and difficult. Alternative would have been 22h, but that would mean less time for girlfriend and friends, while meeting them is allowed again finally. Thirdly, it is a small group (only 9 teams) and, even worse, I predicted it in calendar thread because of attractive parallel programme. I mean, good for money, but not good for enthusiasm. Fourth, setup of teams is quite tricky for my goal of taking it easy through the TDF. My sprint train is quite good, because nobody else really has a strong train, so I probably have to ride for the mass sprint (wasn't my plan at all). At the same time, three teams have better sprinters (Ugao, Novi, Feiting) and two teams have one hill sprinter (Donkey, Liqui). Plus, Bären and Feiting have the strongest flat. So overall would have preferred 1-2 strong sprint teams like FL, Falken or Aix during Giro. Ah, and fifth, those IS with points for everyone suck. Can be OK with a large peloton, but really annoying with a small peloton, where every IS important for maillot vert.

Lack of enthusiasm meant lack of focus meant lots of mistakes. First stage, mistake in my train, so Bogarin wins and I fuck up DeRoy (sorry, Feiting...). Third stage, not really a mistake, but allowed Bastien to beat JJ. Now we have a fight within the team... grrr. Fourth stage, again unconcentrated, didn't even try for the IS, so Bogarin took it. It's fine because I never expected to ride for maillot vert (if some sprinter teams were riding for it) with 8 flat stages in this TDF. But on the other hand, should maybe try it now as it doesn't seem totally unrealistic... well unrealistic again maybe after losing so much to Bogarin, who seems to be much more concentrated.

So three mistakes regarding maillot vert. That is already more mistakes than I made in the whole 21 Giro stages! But still everything possible for maillot vert and also for GC. Wait, GC? Yes, Theo can hope for a Top-10 in this peloton and Donkey even tries to convince me to try for the win or podium. Let's see.

Good thing is, group is friendly so far. So I'm sure can become more enthusiastic in the next 17 stages!

To create some enthusiasm, let's do statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
2 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)

Stage wins by teams:
1 - Big Donkey
1 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - Liquigas-CND

[Berliner Bären RC]

Thanks for the statistics and comments.

And in the name of Claes i must agree. Its a friendly field.

[gaurain rx]

Nice summary by Gipfel and Robyklebt... Motivation also missing a bit here, we'll see how it evolves but skipping 3rd week is more or less in my plans!

About the race, not a lot to tell about the first 3 stages. Today quite unhappy with how I rode in the end, getting some time again was not that unlickely if I wasn't focussed on my 60-80... Else, loosing less than 5 secs was possible, maybe even keeping yellow (but quite hypothetical of course).

So updating

Stage 5 : The expected JJ win. Gipfel controlled it all the way (the early breakaway was easilly catchable). I tried, following the good rider so had 3 guys in front but not strong enough to stay away from the 60-80 of Gipfel. Sprint quite expectable. Only Gipfel with a train, he used it well, Bennett tried from 150m but was unable to overtake JJ who won with 2 wheels in front of DeRoy. JJ 60th win, congrats to him. If I ride for sprint the next days, I guess I'll need another strategy.

Stage 6 : Phoenix and Feiting escaped, I was a bit surprised nobody else tried (Berlin, Novosit or maybe even Gipfel) but still. I was betting on neither Liqui or Donkey wanting to take the responsability of the chase (or at least trying that the other one starts first)... But ok, didn't expect Ugao to chase so hard (or more so long). Which he did on purpose. Early escape easilly catchable.On the last climb, Antinori attacked early, Liqui reacted not hard at first, then Cattaneo rode a bit. He even tried a counter attack with Barreintos but this was not really successfull. Gipfel and Feiting brought back Cattaneo to the second group, then liqui rode the second part of the climb with Barrientos and Cattaneo to try to catch Antinori. Before the last km, Antinori was only 2 seconds ahead of the rest of the favorites (Liqui climber and classic, Thorquist, Metz, the Novosti leader, Roche and Thirfays). Roche attacked followed by Metz and they landed 1 seconds ahead of the group. Metz won the sprint, Thornquist finished 3rd.

So well, before the Pyrenees, I'm a bit concerned about my quest to podium. Already 17 and 15 seconds behind Bike and Ugao's climbers, mainly cause of stage 4... Else, I could more or less even with them. Today don't think I can do better. But still, they look to ride quite correctly... Hope not to loose time on the Pyrenees, which doesn't look totally unlikely. Then, with a bit of luck on training, I think Thirifays can pick up some seconds back during the 3rd week, mainly with the reg advantage and cause of the time trial. But ok, being 1 minute down would be already way too much. + Now a bit scared of Thorquist and Cattaneo.

[Robyklebt]

Grinamino gone

But team classification on

Totakhyl fit

Yesterday plan: Hope for the group to go through. Normally I have no chance at all on this finish. All these 4/5, even scared not to follow Barrientos. And if we're together he's more likely to get bonifications than me. Plan was to only help for GC.. With 60-80 ahead that means at 20' I can start with Swift...And restop at 15'. Stage favorites: Ugao and Liquigas, he had 2 guys. Wait and follow. But then I'm the early steep part of the climb, only the 67 in tempo. Fuck it, go! It's only the tour...

The attack normally has no chance, the flat km kill Antinori, but fortunately Liquigas joined the "fuck-it spirit" and attacked himself, as nonsensical as my attack. If I do nothing chances to arrive with Barrientos, by attacking I end up losing time. Same for Liquigas. By just riding he wins time,by attacking even could lose. Finally a draw, Liquigas was nice.

But our actions made it interesting.

Finally Metz won, the silent one. Ugao would have reserved it. Even if his first attack was nonsensical too! With Cattaneo in tempo and closer to the flat...

Donkey goals now: grinamino. Probably give up tomorrow?
GC maybe at some point with sensible riding.
Team classification: yeah!

[Gipfelstuermer]

Good summary from Feiting for stage 5 and 6. Obviously we are very happy with JJ's 60th win, making him All-Time #2. Only Bernard Billourd with his 73 wins remains out of reach. The win also makes JJ the first rider in RSF history to win stages at 5 Grand Tours! (Giro 2019, TDF 2019, Vuelta 2019, Giro 2020 and now TDF 2020). Actually I think nobody even won stages at 4 Grand Tours...

Stage 7:
Happy about his 60th win and about wearing maillot vert, JJ today ordered the team again to ride for his stage win chances. Before the next downtraining on the 5th and for a +1% finish, it seemed to make sense. However, we were the only team chasing the 4 rider escape from Phoenix and Novo, until.... well, until I had basically slept so much that they were ready to win withmore than 4min advantage at 40km. Feiting realized and put in mass flat power. Starting with 5''/km we eventually gained up to 12''/km and got the second last-km catch of this TDF (stage 3 was also a last-km catch). So apart from our little dispute on stage 1, it seems Feiting/GipFel is a nice F-connection!

In the sprint, DeRoy was finally lucky (after 3 unlucky attempts). He had the right wheel (JJ's wheel of course...) while the other two sprinters Sam Bennet (Ugao TE) and Michele Cipollini (Novostil) created their own sprint. A bit difficult situation for our train, we waited very long, I think so long that Bennet or Cipollini could actually win, but they did not start their sprints early enough. In such situation as a sprinter, you have to follow the right wheel or sprint early. They didn't and DeRoy waited patiently until the gap opened up for him to sprint from 100m. Perfectly done and deserved for him! Everyday a new rider wins! That's good for Le Tour! JJ 2nd, Bogarin 3rd. JJ now at 159points, Bogarin at 151points. Everything possible, especially with those annoying IS. Nearly missed the one today. Didn't miss it, but still lost 2 points there vs Bogarin.

What does it mean for future sprints?
Not too much... all depends on the train and who follows JJ. Why you should always follow JJ: 3 of 4 sprints were won from the JJ train. And why you should never follow JJ: DeRoy always on JJ so far, successful only 1 of 4 times, Bogarin successful when he had his own train, Bennet and Cipollini could have been successful from their own train today. However, if DeRoy can win on a +1 from JJ wheel, and he seems to always take JJ wheel, might be easy for him to win on a 0% or -1%. So my motiviation for sprint definitely smaller now, except.... mass sprint seems to be good for maillot vert. Normally confident to be able to beat Bogarin in a mass sprint. So probably continue to support mass sprint for now. Well, only have to decide in 3 days for Il de Ré. 2 other interesting stages before that!

Now into the Pyrenees!
Two mountain stages ahead. Difficult for a team without a climber... need to come up with some ideas...

Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
3 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
3 - Liquigas-CND
2 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)

Stage wins by teams:
2 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - Big Donkey
1 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Bike Tales

[Novostil]

Please, I can only read forum. Someone can tell me the summary of today's race. Thanks CC for All.

[Robyklebt]

Was on App, so don't know too much.

Group, fairly big, I chase.
No big action until Peyresourde, last climb. There too, attack only on the last km of the climb. +9 Antinori. Saves 8" to the goal.

Fernandez was dropped by Barrientos tempo I think, on app busy enough with my guys.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Stage 8 and 9 in the pyrenees obviously made for the climbers. Stage 8 mainly Big Donkey controlled and his rider Fabio Antinori won the stage plus 14'' for GC. Good move from him on the Peyresourde, but riding so much in peloton of course made the next day in the pyrenees easy for Liquigas. So Stage 9 Liquigas-CND controlled the race successfully as neither the first escape (caught on Col de la Hourcere), nor the second escape (caught eben before Col de Marie Blanque) were balanced enough to really make good tempo together. Alberto Fernandez (Novostil) stole the win from Liquigas in the sprint, but still Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND) got 3rd and won 4'' for GC.

So after first week, GC looks like this:
00'00'' Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
+0'16'' Nikolas Roche (Ugao TE)
+0'20'' Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
+0'20'' Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
+0'43'' Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)

Seems all is possible as the big mountain stages are still coming. Massif central in second week and the alps in third week.


Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
5 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
5 - Liquigas-CND
2 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
1 - Alberto Fernandez (Novostil)

Stage wins by teams:
2 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Gipfelstuermer
2 - Big Donkey
1 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Bike Tales
1 - Novostil

[Robyklebt]

Don't think my tempo had any influence at all on the following day. My 2 classics were fit. Only unfit riders were Swift and Faye. Possibly Nägele at 950 or so, don't remember... Yesterday was always going to be like it was, more or less.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Trying to write something at least every 3 stages. Second week started with a completely flat stage 10, flat but with complicated finish (+4 -1) stage 11 and the longest 217km/130min hilly stage 12. The 38-year-old captain JJ was confident for all three stages, so he asked the team to ride for two mass sprints and one hill sprint. I said "JJ, that is too much, we'll have everybody in the grupetto on stage 13."

Stage 10
Anyway, we did most of the work on stage 10 and JJ had no chance in the mass sprint. The Novostil train launched Sam Bennett (Ugao TE) perfectly to his first stage win.

Stage 11
So until then, 10 stages, 10 different riders won. But that shouldn't hold on stage 11. After our weak sprint on stage 11, we let Ugao TE and Feiting do the work for a sprint. Cattaneo (78-80 monster) didn't attack on the +4. Liqui prefers the control over attacking currently, which makes sense while he wearing the maillot jaune. In the sprint, Bennett and DeRoy both on JJ's wheel this time and again Bennett takes the win. 2 in a row quite strong.

Stage 12
Stage 12, 217km to go, hilly part at the end, difficult to control normally. I was a bit afraid that the Donkey and Liqui relax in peloton and then steal the win with Bogarin or Söderberg or Catteneo. So first step was to test if they want to ride for GC and stage chances today. So instead of controlling from km1, we sent Arvidsson and Quathammer into escape. Well... they didn't even make it into escape. The escape (Feiting, Bären, Phoenix) didn't want to have them and Liqui started chasing immediately. So after escape preferred to have me ride in peloton, I did that. So that was back to the scenario, me doing all the work and afraid of Bogarin/Söderberg to steal the win... luckily, didn't end like that. At least Donkey helped a bit (30km or so) and Liqui helped control the finish (10km or so). Fair and smart from them as they need the control for their GC win. Side story was that Feiting let VanLooy (60-88 monster) try to bring back his sprinter DeRoy, while I thought VanLooy himself might win with an attack in the hilly finish... very hypothetical discussion after all. Both can make sense in that situation.

After all, DeRoy and Bennett didn't make it back into the first group, so my sprint train Theo-Bastien-JJ (64-76-77) was clearly the strongest. But I was still afraid of Bogarin and Söderberg. Söderberg with what Liqui claimed 2 helpers and 99 form didn' even get the wheel, so Bogarin maybe 99/100 form, too. Bastien less form, less energy. JJ less form. But sprint went nicely. Was able to launch Bastien only late at 150m, Theo basically blocked a move of Bogarin (although trying could have been Bogarin's win still). JJ wins from 50m! Excellent with 38-years-old, to win 2 TDF stages.

Situation for maillot vert
JJ 265 points, Bogarin 216, Bastien 195, Roche 171, Bennet 166, DeRoy 152, Barrientos 134. I think JJ is allowed to dream about it now. The flat sprinters DeRoy and Bennet only with tiny underdog chance now. One of them would need to win both flat stages in the third week and collect more IS than expected. But downtraining coming for JJ. Bogarin and Roche still a threat. But both have teams which need to focus on GC normally on the next days. Bogarin may become a helper for Antinori. Roche can collect points on mountain stages but would be suprising if he continues sprinting for IS to risk his own GC chances.

GC unchanged. But three interesting stages coming! We'll mainly be riding in grupetto, I guess

Aaaaand Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
8 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
8 - Liquigas-CND
2 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
2 - Sam Bennett (Ugao TE)
2 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
1 - Alberto Fernandez (Novostil)

Stage wins by teams:
3 - Gipfelstuermer
2 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Big Donkey
2 - Ugao TE
1 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Bike Tales
1 - Novostil

[Robyklebt]

GC fight really starts today. At 0:50, successfully, Antinori kept the mountain so keeps his 1 mountain advantage over Barrientos for the rest of the Tour. Good.

12" back right now, won 8" back on stage 13, second stage win, Barrientos 2" back and 6" less bonifications.
Antinori of course needs more, with the 36 km TT coming, close to a minute I guess.
Roche and Metz are still in the fight too, 21" back for Metz, 29" Roche, both 85 mountain, TT they lose like Antinori, but they could profit from Antinori and Barrientos looking at each other too much. We'll see.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Stage 13 - Mountain Arrival Puy Mary Cantal
Big Donkey controlled the race versus a relatively large escape. Escape worked well together with Feiting, Phoenix, Berlin and me, but Donkey's chase was too good. Consequently, GC favo Fabio Antinori wins and gains a 8'' on Beltran Barrientos, who remained in maillot jaune.

Stage 14 to Lyon
Classified as a flat stage according to Le Tour organizer ASO, but actually with a hilly finish (2x +6% shortly before the end). Normally in that finish, a climber can sieb, Cattaneo the strongest classic (78-80) can lead the front group or attack out of front group. Therefore our team was not optimistic. Theo and Quirin did not feel well in the morning, and for JJ it would be too difficult anyways. So we sent Boas in attack... who was followed by Ticio Bogarin! Who was followed by JJ! Suddenly those two contenders for maillot vert together in the escape.... and nobody really chasing. JJ won the IS, but then we did not want to give Bogarin a chance for the stage, so we let the two teams Berlin & Phoenix create an escape out an escape. Their guys Landtmann (Berliner Bären) and Kiriyenko (Team-Phoenix) got up to 10min advantage vs the poursuivants (including JJ and Bogarin). JJ got 5th and Bogarin 6th in the end. A good day for maillot vert as we were still a bit afraid of Nikolas Roche (Ugao TE), who kept on collecting and collecting points as a climber. It nearly seemed he was more interested in green than yellow as he sprinted for points on the day before! But now with 120 points advantage, even on 4 mountain stages Roche shouldn't be able to collect so much.

Stage 15 - Mountain Arrival Grand Colombier
Actually, today the first stage that we wanted to watch live in France at the Grand Colombier. Covid-19 let us ride the RSF race instead, which is nice, too!! A big escape went, but including Faye from Team Big Donkey, so Liqui never gave much more than 5' to the group. Big Donkey then attacked before Col de la Biche with his 2 classics Totakhyl and Belhassen; and on Col de la Biche with Antinori! Made a lot of sense because Big Donkey really has a downhill advantage with his team. So before the final at Grand Colombier it was a group led by Belhassen and Antinori; chased by Cattaneo and Barrientos. Always roughly 20'' in between. In the climb, Barrientos was not able to fully close the gap, and even got attacked by Roche and Metz at the end, who then even successfully attacked vs. Antinori. Our mistake was to blame Metz for pulling Roche up the Colombier, but who could know that Roche was unable to sprint 100m? So sorry for that! Well done from Metz to attack and sprint at the right moment, leaving Roche looking like an idiot as he gets only P2, while he was sucking the whole Colombier (first Barrientos wheel, then Metz wheel). So after all, GW Metz! Well done!!!

maillot jaune situation
0'00'' Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
+0'00'' Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
+0'00'' Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
+0'12' Nikolas Roche (Ugao TE)
+1'34'' Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)

Metz, Antinori and Barrientos now all in the same second! Roche 12'' behind. Can be interesting for the next three stages in the alps! Antinori with 88 mountain now perhaps the favorite, especially with the finish to Col de la Loze. But really a lot possible in this fight currently.

maillot vert situation
309 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
248 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
215 - Nicolas Roche (Ugao TE)
201 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
173 - Sam Bennett (Ugao TE)

JJ can dream of defending maillot vert! The first rider to defend maglia ciclamino, can he defend maillot vert as well? Some danger still from Roche to collect points in the 3 mountain stages and from Bogarin to collect points in the two flat stages. But JJ certainly the favorite now and the other two should really focus on GC. Bogarin on supporting Antinori for GC and Roche to ride for his own GC! 12'' is nothing.

maillot a pois rouge situation
69 - Kamaladevi Bachchan (Team-Phoenix)
45 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
36 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
33 - Nikolas Roche (Ugao TE)
29 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)

Bachchan the hardworking guy, who is leading, but with three hard mountain stages coming, one of the climbers might steal the jersey at the end. If any of them becomes chanceless in GC, might switch to attacking for points.

Aaaaand more Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
11 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
11 - Liquigas-CND
2 - Feiting Siebing
1 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
2 - Sam Bennett (Ugao TE)
2 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
2 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
2 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Alberto Fernandez (Novostil)
1 - Yegor Kiriyenko (Team-Phoenix)

Stage wins by teams:
3 - Gipfelstuermer
3 - Big Donkey
2 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Ugao TE
2 - Bike Tales
1 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Novostil
1 - Team-Phoenix

All teams have their stage win, except Berliner Bären RC. I hope, he has a chance through an escape on one of the upcoming stages! Will support him in escaping most likely!

[Robyklebt]

3 guys same time now,

Barrientos
Metz
Antinori

Stage, Donkey places Baaba in the escape, didn't think I would be able to use him later really, but why not try. First attempt caught, was thinking about taking him off, since probably now a Liquigas was there too, but finally didn't, so what, a LIquigas and a Donkey ahead, doesn't bother me. Second group goes, still no Liquigas and this one works, nice.

5' roughly, so could use Baaba between the 2 first climbs, before attacking with Totakhyl-Belhassen in the downhill.

Wasn't sure I was going to attack behind with Antinori really, 3 possibilities there. 1) attack 2) sieb and go with Totakhyl-Belhassen but without Cattaneo. 3) Do nothing, let all be together again on top.
1 clear, risk of time loss there, but more fun
2 I have a helper, Barrientos no. But no Cattaneo for the last climb, which I kind of wanted there.
3 I have 2 helpers, he has 1, probably more, Volpi can come back. Advantage: Cattaneo does the early mountain, BUT is already weakened. When Roche-Metz attack, then..... he can change to Barrientos or risk losing time. Or if they wait and I go and Barrientos can't follow I win a decent amount of time with the attack. But probably then don't win more after the attack.

All 3 made sense, but went for one, seemed to have the biggest potential plus AND involved the least thinking, which is always good. Problem 1) Cattaeno was too fast for Totakhyl. They were on top together. Should have done some more km with Belhassen, maybe that's just enough to save Totakhyl? But well, more was needed really, 1" advantage with -3 +5 next Cattaneo catches Totakhyl. So basically was ok like this I think.
Then good reaction by Liquigas in the downhill, he didn't go with Cattaneo, who would have lost 40" or so? Bat with Barrientos himself, didn't cost much I guess, but still something, Antinori was happily regaining energy while Barrientos probably lost 20 or 30... while I won... So was around 20" still at the bottom, 19" I think, I expected to be caught by the IS at that moment, Belhassen was down to 530 I think. But he kept well, 17"? before the +4! Then Antinori, losing bit by bit to Barrientos, but since he having more energy lost more at this point I was getting confident of not losing time to him. Then the attack by Barrientos at 165, Metz and Roche follow, 7", went down the next km, but went back up after the flat part, excellent. 169 attack by Metz, Roche follows, and yes, after Feiting mentioned something it's becoming a bit suspicious... hmm, keep an eye on them. Immediately at the same level as Antinori, surprising, didn't think I'd lose all in 1 km actually.
Metz rides, Roche attacks on the 1, I really should have put in following there, but didn't think they would try there somehow, think I could follow, but actually now that I think about it not sure. Anyway, no following in, 4" lost, gained back 1 in the last 3 km.... while keeping the same pace as Barrientos. Follow and see.... but ok like this.

1 climber fights are quite interesting it turns out.

Excellent ride by Liquigas, I made him work by putting Faye in front (make him work one reason (but thought he follows at least the second time) another one not interested in riding alone for a stage win that is not at all assured (probably if I go for stage I can get it, but need time, not stages), he rode well behind, nothing to say. Looks liek a deserving GC winner. Bike Tales did what he had to do, got the win.... which was thanks to lack of experience by Ugao, who despite being clearly stronger didn't follow Metz and went only at 50, while Metz went at 100. Or on purpose? Somehow doesn't fit, but as I said, after some comment by Feiting I've become a bit suspicious too now. And what is sure is that Bike Tales isn't new. But did well in the final, attacked in the right moment, then correctly kept riding, despite the protests (idiotic) in the back. What is he supposed to do, stop riding because Roche will win the stage (normally)? Forget his GC time win? Stop riding because he's carrying Antinori? And forget his own GC ambitions? And actually Metz wasn't that much faster than Antinori either, time didn't go up anymore to Barrientos after the attack. Very strange... 7" on the attack, 0" the next? Maybe I remember wrong... or maybe Antinori breaked him...

GC now....

LiqLiq will not be happy (but it is lots of fun doing what he does even when he has a 89 60 or so, claim that the other guy will win for sure) but Barrientos is the main favorite now.
He basically has 43" seconds on Antinori. One less mountain though.
32" or so on Metz. 2 more mountain
And 55" on Roche, 2 more mountain

He isn't unbeatable of course, but if he keeps riding well like he did today until the attack that cost him time vs Antinori (but not to Metz-Roche really, they were going to win this stage anyway) he normally should be able to minimize the time loss to Antinori. And not allow Metz mostly, to win more time. Difficult to find the right measure really. When to ride vs Antinori, when to ride vs Metz.

3 mountain stages coming:
16: Normally looks like it will all happen on 7 7 at the end. So minimal time loss to Antinori, if any at all. 7 flat still counts, IMO likely he can follow and has the better sprint. Should gain time to Metz
17: That's the big one, long final climb like today... Does it go like today? Antinori early, chasing? Or all together, then when does Barrientos take over? Do Roche-Metz attack early, what does he do if they do? How much does he give them, how long does he gamble? And how long does Antinori gamble? Difficult stage for Barrientos I'd say. (Antinori too of course)
18: Here it's more team and tactics than pure mountain strength. So a lot can happen, energy a likely problem for Liquigas, he doesn't have much reg. But Totakhyl neither, so well, same thing possibly.

3 stages, 30-40-50 seconds to lose... .promises to be interesting.
I'd say, as I already did, Barrientos is the main favorite. Followed by Antinori, then by Metz.
40-30-20% or so? Roche then 5%, Thirifays 2% Thornquist 1% And no idea who gets the last percentage point.

For me of course.... the 9% idiotically lost early bad. Low form after the TdS bad too, but that's how it is, maybe could have done better that day, most likely could, but ok, doesn't matter. The 9% though bad. And possibly could have done a bit better last week, but was in Kyoto and on app, so that's ok too. Thought it all went fairly well. Of course might have tried something earlier on the Computer, but doesn't matter. I'd really like to be in yellow now for my GC chances, not still behind, even if only on points.... 88 mountain vs 87, no TT yet and I'm not ahead... not good.

[Liquigas-CND]

Antinori at 33-35 seconds maximum now. Bike tales more or less the same.
But situation changed totally as now I can either:
1.chase Donkey and give the victory to Bike Tales-Ugao Te or
2. chase Ugao Te-Bike Tales and give the victory to Donkey
3.Try to follow an attack of Antinori and do nothing.

1st situation seems the most probable but let's see