Spring classics 2020

[Robyklebt]

Today the spring classic season starts, Het Nieuwsblad. Big Donkey starting at 9h, he will try to be in the afternoon for most of the races, numbers for the afternoon. But since FL announced that he'll ride in the morning, why not visit there. Might as well lose to him. Yep, Het Nieuwsblad is not really the Donkeys best race... 2nd with Balderis in 2017, 3rd Squarcialupi in 2016 the best result. Don't even remember the races, just remember we usually have no real chance. Ok, new parcours since... 18, no more lange Munte, the old RVV finish. Weren't really good at the old RVV either, so no reason to expect more. But anyway, this year the goal is the win. With anybody really.

But since this is the opening post... much more important races coming up. Milano Sanremo! Bogarin! Flèche Wallonne! Antinori! Or Larios? Liège-Bastogne-Liège! Armas! Those 3 my main goals, with Roubaix as no 4. Ok, Het Nieuwsblad and E3 really should be my main goals since I never won either, but well... since I doubt I'll win them this year, they are no 6+9 or so.

[Bear]

So next year it's your main goal again? Did not see your race but it seems you were close?

I am really looking forward to the Spring classics. I have some good memories with Het Nieuwsblad. Sproles sprinted to victory in 2013. As I remember it was like RVV, with a good classic you can win although the pave skill is not brilliant. So tonight I hope for a fun race with Lorient and co.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Gip cannot overcome classique weakness - Thornquist beaten by Mansilla

First classic of the season, first defeat for Gipfelstuermer's newly formed team. The team dominated most of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad but not the decisive sprint. While Theo Thornquist (Gipfelstuermer), who was signed 3 months after the team could not pay the high transfer fee of pavè Superstar Mel LeBihan (Team Armorique), was able to beat the latter, Alejandro Mansilla (Rapid Vitesse) was even stronger in the final sprint.

The defeat is a tough one for the team full of pavè riders who all want to prove their skills. Riders like Adrian Arvidsson, Edvin Einarsson and Chris Cooper could demand the role as a leader. Even the German pavè youngstar Quirin Quathammer could ask for a better role in the team... The manager only congratulated Rapid Vitesse and declined to comment on who will be the leader for upcoming classiques. Monte Paschi, De Panne, Harelbeke, Wevelgem and La Classicissima. A lot to come in March!

[Robyklebt]

Close? No, second but far from the win. Just the only guy who was following the guy who could be expected to attack. My only chance for the win would have been to attack the same km. But even then not sure I'm ahead on a -1.

Generally incredibly boring race. As expected after seeing the starters, too many guys with 60+ Sprint that can hope to win it in the Sprint. So nobody tried anything in the approach to the Mur, where action kind of was possible. Xc Runners youth tried an atrack. The Donkey who was one of the few guys without a 60 sprinter should have done something too. But he was fighting with his freezing browsers. And not sure he would have done anything, the race was so soft till then that any attack seemed pointless.
So waiting for me. Davis does the Mur, then the Bosberg. Leading group down to 9. 4 I'm from the end the expected Pincemail-attack with only 1 follower. Weird. Yes,. a Mosca attack was coming for sure, but normally Pincemail is there too. So Pincemail made most sense to follow I thought. In retrospect the attacking km was logic too. Mosca attack on 0 more likely. Not -1, so Pincemail goes there. Didn't think of that, would have tried there otherwise. Bah. Need 5 mintact!
Anyway I wasn't close and the race was boring. 3 surprises basically. 1) no attack by Alk in km 1. 2) FL going for Kopinski, had to use his outstanding supporting cast to bring him back, instead of having them for Looser. Kopinski survived the Mur, but not the Bosberg. Very brave of FL to try, but to be honest seemed hopeless. But it's Kopinski he said. Yeah, living in the past is no good! 3) Only Armas on Pincemail.

Rest was all as expected really... ok not the chaos for place 3...

For me all ok finally, did a decent race. And it wasn't the main goal!
1 MSR
2 FW
3 LBL
4 PR
5 GW
6 E3
7 RVV
8 Strade Bianche
9 Het Nieuwsblad
10 Brabant
11 Schelde
12 De Panne
13 any unmentioned cat 4+ race

Around 20 Amstel together with Umag...

[Mangahn]

20.00 Uhr war ein weitgehend kurioses Rennen. Viele Teams mit Chancen da kein Fahrer an Mur und Bosberg zu einem ernsthaften Sieb hätte ansetzen können. Diverse 60+ Sprinter konnten sich also Hoffnung machen. Team FCSB mit Vorteilen.

Eine kleine Gruppe aus 3 Teams mit 5 Fahrern (?) war nach gut 100 KM 1 Minute vor dem Feld. Die Gruppe war langsam gefahren und CND hatte einen Fahrer geopfert um sie nah zu halten. Auch im weiteren Verlauf wurde die dann aus 3 Fahrern bestehende Gruppe eher eng gehalten. Zumal es im Feld erste kleinere Versuche gab unliebsame Konkurrenten durch den einen oder anderen Sieb zu schwächen.

CND Generallattacke mit zwei 80er KSP wurde im Ansatz gestoppt, durch einen guten Block mit anschließendem Tempo aus dem Feld. Ohnehin gab es jetzt Dauertempo im Feld. Insbesondere Whisbone war im Tempo, ohne das von außen ein Siegplan erkennbar war.

FCSB wie üblich ohne große Tempobemühungen verlor zur großen Freude des Kiebitz vollig verdient das Rennen an einen Aussenseiter. Der 89 Flach, 43 Sprint Sebastian Krause von Team Gigi attackierte gleichzeitig mit Whisbone. Alle hingen an Whisbone und Krause gewann locker. Gut so.

[Mangahn]

14 Uhr Omloop Het Blad sollte eine Angelegenheit von zwei Spezialistenteams werden. Das KSP-Team Gipfelstürmer gegen den zumindest auf Hügel-KSP starken Mannen des Mangahn. Gipfel kniff und verlor dafür um 17.00 Uhr (sorry^^).

4 Fahrer aus 2 Teams machten sich auf die 200 KM lange Reise um möglichst einen Startzielsieg hinzubekommen. Knapp 9 Minuten Vorsprung bekamen sie und waren selbst damit unzufrieden. Es wurde ca. 20-30 KM gerollt und, nehmen wir es vorweg, die Gruppe wurde am letzten KM einkassiert. Viel kürzer hätte das Rennen demnach nicht sein dürfen.

MM kontrollierte im wesentlichen und der alte Fuchs Ariostea beteiligte sich von Zeit zu Zeit. Nach entsprechenden Sieben befanden sich 5 Fahrer (3 von Mangahn) vorn. Die nachfolgende große Gruppe um Ariosteas Sprintstar war Chancenlos gegen Mangahns Edelhelfer (66-84-76 als Jugendfahrer von RV Cologne zu 4,4 mio gekauft). Der Sprint ging hauchdünn aber verdient mit 1. MM, 2. Ariostea, 3. Leinard zu Ende.

[Bear]

23:00 just with 4 teams. So not the open race as wanted. Lorient the favorite but Finn and Arminas with chances. Escape got 14 or 15 minutes but was easily controlled. With 47km to go I siebed and Lorient was just with two in front. His classics behind were gone and never came back. Olaf and Stamina had there guys in front but could just follow with one guy each at the Muur. I was running out of ideas to beat Lorient. But it was the point of no return and Lorient easily win in the sprint.

[Robyklebt]

Next one today, the Donkey back to the afternoon. 9 leaders, from Armas to Wiedmer, not going to write down all 9. Not very confident, after being beaten by Volodko Armas is contemplating early retirement. Good thing that's not possible at c4f, you stay on the market till 34! Once we told that Armas, he agreed to keep riding for us. Still not ultra-confident about today, the 6* finish with max ** before still seems perfect for climbers with some flat (mine don't have any, they stay home), Armas with 76-80 surely well fitted to the finish as well... but vs a 86-60? A 83-70? Doubtful.

[team fl]

Team FL will also ride in the afternoon as the Team FL ladies are out shopping (need a RSF licence discount afterwards I fear...). Guess my team will be way too expensive for its chances, but hey, who cares, at least we can ride the race, not like the poor RL cyclists...

[Gipfelstuermer]

Edvin Einarsson 2nd in Strade Bianche - Gip classique curse continues

The team started expensive, but with limited hope because of the +6* finish. We missed a beautiful attack from HyunMin Yoo (Falkenbier) and Indrek Jürisoo (Falkenbier) in the mid of the race, because the Gip manager made coffee in the wrong moment and the riders were following the wrong Falkenbiers... But one of the favorites, Hansa, made a lot of tempo for his leader Lucas Stucki, so there was an opportunity to attack with our icelandic Pavé specialist duo Adrian Arvidsson and Edvin Einarsson. Lots of others followed and so Edvin had to pull another attack to create a serious duo with Mikita Urubleuski (Falkenbier). They were chased by mulitple teams, mainly Hansa for Stucki, RC Cost for Gamarra and Team FL for Looser.

Edvin and Mikita arrived with 22'' at the last km and were able to keep 4'' at the finish line. But Edvin was too weak in the sprint. So after Omloop another 2nd place for our team... Mikita with good form? Edvin with bad form? Maybe both? Anyway, congrats to Falkenbier, one of the most active teams today. Many strong classic teams were probably not motivated because they have form on other races like MSR, E3 or Gent-Wevelgem.

[Mangahn]

Strade Bianche, 23.00 Uhr

Das erste Feld mit ernsthaften Bergfahrerambitionen. Lorient, Gala und Chartreuse Monks haben nicht nur Bergfahrer dabei, sondern sie sind auch bereit diese zu schützen und darauf zu fahren. Ernsthafte Ausreißer sind nicht zu sehen und zum ungläubigen Staunen der anwesenden Manager beginnt der Kampf früh. War es ein Crazy Sieb? Lorients und Gala´s Bergler fliegen an KM 31 nach einem nicht zu schwerem Sieb, CM ergreift die Initiative und zieht durch. Lorient ist desorient, braucht ein paar KM ins Tempo. Alle drei ernsthaften Teams fahren, und sie fahren allein, jeder für sich.

Das Bild bleibt etwa 100 KM bestehen. Lorient holt Gala ein, ein nennenswertes Teamwork entsteht nicht. Lorient setzt jetzt auf seine Klassiker.

Bei KM 132 beginnt der Abschnitt, der die meisten Rennen des heutigen Tages entschieden hat. Mangahn siebt leicht am 7* und die Reihen der Teams lichten sich. Der Versuch Mangahns bei den nachfolgenden 2% Steigung ** die beiden verbliebenden Bergler loszuwerden scheitert kläglich. Der KSP-Experte ist offensichtlich zu schwach. Die allein bleibende Attacke wird erst am letzten KSP-Kilometer (142) ausgeführt. CM kann sich zwar noch den Attacken des Feldes erwähren und gewinnt den "Sprint" des Feldes am letzten KM, er muss aber die Gruppe ziehen lassen. Mit gut einer Minute Vorsprung gewinnt:

1. Mallory Pugh (MM)
2. Nadia Aberg (Lennao)
3. Ewar Ciab (Waerl)

Schönes, eines Klassikers werten Rennens.

[Mangahn]

Monte Paschi 10.00 Uhr (Ich lösche das hier gern wenn noch ein Bericht eines Teilnehmers kommt)

8 Teams, und keinen klaren Favoriten. Der stärkste Einzelfahrer ist mit 73-80-78 und 72,8 KSP Rival Moscau CT, Poke und Alk mit den stärkeren Teams. Je nach Form kann heute "jeder" gewinnen.

Alkworld übernimmt nach einiger Zeit das Ruder und versucht sein starkes Team auszuspielen. So richtig große Effekte werden die ersten 145 KM nicht erzielt. KM 148 dann die von Poke initierte Attacke. 2 Zieher, 5 Fahrer aus fünf Teams und gute 30 Sekunden Vorsprung. Alkworld hatte nach viel Tempo hier weder gesichert noch sich verhangen. Die Gruppe funktionerte. Das galt zumindest bis Poke durch die Offlineregel bei Tagesrennen aus dem Tempo flog. Es reichte dennoch für vorn:

1. Mosca
2. Poke
3. Joyride

Verdient wars net.

[el Galactico]

Interesting race at 23h. I am still asking myself how Marco did get dropped that much to be behind the climber of Chartreuse Monks and then again I still don't get what he did afterwards wasting his team for nothing and just let the group go on to win it.
I expected to be dropped but not that early. It was an interesting race however even if I cleary ended up on the wrong side.

[Robyklebt]

Afternoon started funny. 3 of 4 favorites in the attack. Rasmussen, Donkey, Cost. Hansa brought us back. Rightly and immediately, despite Cost finding it worthy of some complaints. Then race went on without a real escape going. Some siebs, mostly everybody coming back. Then bigger siebs and not coming back, at some point very good attack by Falkenbier with 2 riders after a sieb. Followed by similar riders that could already have been the right attack. But no followers, so was clear would be caught. More siebs, attack by 2 donkeys. Gamble attack. Valverde in tempo, as usual after siebs he rides in all groups... was gambling he'd take out tempo that km. Didn't, gained minimal time, Hansa at first trying to catch immediately, then stopped, but that was maybe the only mistake he did in the race, if he stops he has to do it with a sectrick, was clear this was the moment for those that didn't want the last km decision out of the peloton to attack, by going out early, he invited attacks. Or go blue. He went out, Gipfel attacks, FL, Falkenbier following, 1 or 2 more I think. The 2 donkeys slightly ahead wait, for together first. Then at a 5 Gipfel attacks again with Einarsson, only Urubleuski manages to follow. Looked like they might be caught towards the end, but the top 3 attackers from the peloton missed 4". Stucki, Gamarra+Volodko. In front Urubleuski wins.

In the back. Rasmussen offline for the last 60? Km. But IMO he wasn't a real favorite with his climber. 87 mountain, yes, counts. But so does 53 flat. And not much more pavé if I remember correctly. But those 53 flat, he will lose energy, lots of it. Even with 2 helpers he'll have at the very least 50 energy less than a 80 classic. Probably more.. So not sure he would even have helped in the peloton. More decisive Cost, as usual. One thing you can count on in classics with Cost is: He doesn't do enough to actually have a chance to win. Just riding with one of his classics earlier would have made up those 4". Or simply ride earlier, instead of letting Hansa do all by himself. It's not like Hansa's chances were higher. Similar riders, similar sprint, I saw them with basically equal chances. Hansa the question for which leader he goes a bit, the climber with flat or Stucki.
The 4th favorite, Big Donkey, did nothing at all despite having a 76-80, tried attacks with Wiedmer and Brotcorne. Having him ride for the peloton would have been enough too, but I have to admit that guy was right not to ride, seeing the result at the end. Armas couldn't follow Stucki.

MSR is coming!

[Robyklebt]

MSR coming, MSR coming!

1 Ticio Bogarin: Leader, 61-73, 76 sprint
2 Ticio Armas 76-80 classic, helper in the end, Cipressa and Poggio should be his thing.
3 Habib Belhassen: 71-80 classic, helper in the end
4 Armand Brotcorne 54-86 flat star, but for when?
Hm, numbers only sure till there,

Other sure riders:
Felix Krankl: 62-82-77,
Andreas Nägele: 62-82-77,
9 Stephan Wiedmer, he has his number 64-80-77

Those 3 ideally in action after the Cipressa.

Candidates:
M. Haqqi 50-87 loader, early tempo if necessary, hard tempo (if early) if necessary
G. Lafargue: 49-85, if he trains and Haqqi downtrains better chances. Same role
H. Matsukaze: 60-54 with 74 sprint. 2nd sprinter who will be dropped from the first group at the Cipressa Unlikely to join, if he does 90% chances to be helping. 10% to be helped.
H. Matsuzaka 60-75: 1% to join I just realized.
I. Totakhyl: 65-72. Helper, chances to stay on after the Cipressa? Not much help otherwise

Probably one flat rider (could actually be Hikmet-Quttiboyev too) and ...? Totakhyl? Or Swift for reg, not that it's needed, break the next day for many.

Tactic clear, be ahead of the flat sprinters after the Cipressa, keep it together till the end, win the sprint ith Ticio.
Problems:
-flat after the Cipressa. Should be good enough to keep it together, but good enough not to be caught by the chasing hordes? Doubtful. Brotcorne fit, stays ahead... he lacks mountain for that I fear.
-Sprint, chaos. A 60 something to give some sort of slow train to Bogarin would help. As it is it's Belhassen who might not be overly fit with 57, Armas with 54... Bah...
-cooperation with other teams with similar riders. Will be bad. And not necessarily their fault this time around, I have a list that fills 3/4 of my hard disk of teams that will get no cooperation at all, or minimal, passed riding behaviour in monuments or other important races.

Prediction: BOGARIN

[Hansa]

MSR coming:

Hansa:

1. Leander 69-74-55 72 sprint
2. Lucas Stucki 74-82-71
3. Alexander 71-80-72
4. Ben Sutter 70-77-46 62 sprint
these 4 guys will start for sure.

Probalbly joined by

5. Flurin Kutti 82-58-77 56 Sprint
6. Aeschbacher 56-75-72
7. Anton 49-81-74
8. Jonas 48-82-60
9. Rinner 51-76-67

[Robyklebt]

Bogarin! As announced.

But wasn't especially interesting or glorious or anything. Had a pretty good team, not perfect, but didn't need to use it. Bah. And split group, so Tukh, Falkenbier, Feiting, Aix in the second group, would have liked riding against them more actually. Higher quality! And Wauthier for the second try, after unluckily failing last year. He won group 2.

Back to group 1, everybody with the same rider.

Jefferson 83 sprint, 72 mountain, 63 flat, different type than the rest.
After that
Söderberg 62-67-77
Kageyama 67-73-76
Bogarin 61-73-76
Casademont 64-73-74
Hediger 70-74-72

So 6 teams basically ok with a sprint, the 5 other teams, not sure what they were planning. Classics mostly in the teams with sprint too.
Early attack, that didn't ride, so Gipfel got them pretty soon, just had to ride 2-3 km after they stopped. Not sure why with a 69 mountain, could have used that one as a helper with chances to survive the Cipressa despite helping.
Next Hansa, then CC with Liquigas, didn't like the 2 there without me, chase, caught them, waiting for the next attack. CC active before the Turchino, seems he wanted to save his guys from a sieb, could have been an attempt to do one, so covered that a bit too. After the Turchino finally we had a group, Quttiboyev first puller, then back and 3 left, Wiedmer, Lylloff and Zwingli. I would have been ok with an escape too, but Gipfel in the back kept a very short leash... I would have tried to use one less guy but bring one more over the Cipressa, but didn't matter at all.
Cipressa, no serious sieb, Bogarin stays, he was the weakest in mountain, so most at risk, and with Matsuyama for Casademont in front of me, with Lama... not sure I come back. But no problem. Then ok, use the Donkey 100 form 970 fittish before the Cipressa riders to help Gipfel control... 76 vs 83 outsider, but with the bunch of 70+ sprinters a lot can happen. Gipfel found it suspicious it seems.... so thought go out, but then a Davies attack, probably mostly to weaken followers? So back in... Poggio Armas, then don't remember if I was in tempo in the downhill, probably yes, not sure.

Sprint, got Jefferson's wheel, thought I would. Söderberg probably not in form, a few days earlier he had no chance vs Bogarin. IF he even tried, not sure. Kageyama doing the sprint for Pincemail was always a possibility, so Belhassen there 63-57, unfortunately a Melange stole the wheel. Grr. But finally irrelevant, Poke goes, Gipfel changes with the wrong guy, so Liqui then takes the wheel, then goes with his puller, Gipfel misses to go on his wheel, really should have. And Liquigas missed going with Söderberg. Then at 200 Jefferson goes, Bogarin in the wheel. He then went out at 100, I wait till 50 and the win is 100% sure, but well, let's give Gipfel a chance and go at 100. 50 meters from the goal to me looked like it would be Gipfel rather clearly... didn't even check the last 50 meters of the sprint at first.... assumed he had it, but Bogarin wanted MSR, he got it.

The Donkey not too excited, yes, it's nice to win MSR, but... what makes MSR the generally most exciting monument for me is the fight, classics vs hill sprinters. HIll sprinters vs real ones. This time we had nothing of the sort, it was hill sprinters letting Gipfel do the job. Ok, wasn't a big job really...

Seriously thinking about trying with a flat sprinter next year then? Since the excitement of having a 60-70 is over it seems, everybody has them now. Problem is... don't want a sprinter for the rest of the year, a 50-60-90... maybe could buy an older one in February 21! Ha.

Ok, MSR done, let's move on to RVV. With E3, GW and DDV in between. 4 races that usually are not especially friendly for Donkeys.....

[Bear]

Congrats. You cant always get the exciting wins... but its defenitely more interesting. The hill/classic spinters are very dominant in c4f so its kind of boring in these races. BUT if more teams get more guts again it will be very interesting... I hope for more battles between hill sprinters, real sprinters, classics, bad sprinters in the future... what I learned from yesterdays race: I need more leaders

[Gipfelstuermer]

Depressed - JJ loses MSR by 1 pixel

Everything had been prepared for the first monument win of Gipfelstuermer: JJ missed all the downtraining, JJ in form, team in good shape after 3 stage wins at P-N. But then all the bad news started out of nothing. Covid-19 came, so no real MSR this year, makes the RSF version basically fantasy monument, but OK, still counts in RSF. Should the first monument win of Gipfelstuermer be fantasy monument? We thought yes, but turned out no, eventually.

So the race can be summarized quite quickly. Successful control of 291km by Gipfelstuermer team, which is not always easy. Especially since all the co-favos (poke, cc, donkey) tried their luck in escapes over the race. No really dangerous escape, but never easy to control 291km and then have a train in the sprint and win... turns out, it was still too difficult. JJ went into the sprint as the favorite. JJ with 83 sprint vs. Söderberg (77), Kageyama (76), Bogarin (76) and Casademont (74).

The sprint is there and setup looks really bad. Poke-train vs. Liqui-train vs. Gip-train and Bogarin in JJ's wheel. Casademont nowhere. Probably we made some mistake here. Follow the Poke-train with Theo or follow the Liqui-train with JJ could have been an option. But we expected, if we take poke-train, liqui-train wins and if we take liqui-train, poke-train wins. Maybe the team was too confident for their own train, fell far behind. JJ still confident to win from 200m vs. Bogarin. He goes and Bogarin wins by 1 pixel. Donkey even gw-ed JJ at 50m, clearly too early. So the guy who attacked in the middle of the race, didn't even bring his own train and trash-talks all other managers down... well done from Bogarin as he took the right wheel, but really a victory without class.

So the Gipfelstuermer team is depressed. JJ is depressed. It should have been the crowning event of JJ and 1 pixel was missing. Let's look into the future. Doesn't look too bright for JJ with lots of downtrainings coming. Can he win a different monument? Can he win maglia ciclamino for the 2nd time? Can he win maillot vert for the 2nd time? Can he stay the team's leader with young riders asking for a leader role in the team? JJ did not comment after the race, but it was reported that all the spectators asked for him and celebrated JJ, the superstar of the peloton. It's a bit like Peter Sagan, who never won his dream race MSR (and he had way more chances than JJ). But ok, rumours say, JJ had a fantastic night with a naughty Italian woman in San Remo. He is not depressed anymore this morning.

Edit: At least JJ wins the totally unimportant after-MSR-criterium Batovo-Chust in the Ukraine vs. MSR-winner Xuan Pham.

[Gipfelstuermer]

JJ 3rd in Harelbeke - Gip continues unhappy podium series

Olafscelts with the classical km1 attack and Gipfel controls the race until the last 50km. Some siebing on the first few km, but at Oude Kwaremont the decisive attack is there. Finn Iles (Bearclaw Cycling) and his teammate Jasikonis escape out of the first group and build a gap if up to slightly above 1'.

Gipfelstuermer was leading the chase with a little bit of help from SkyPC, but Bearclaw deserved the win as Iles in fantastic form saved 7'' to the finish line. JJ wins the sprint but isn't too happy on as 3rd on the podium. The team continues the unhappy podium series in this year's classics:

Omloop - 2nd place
Strade Bianche - 2nd place
MSR - 2nd place
Harelbeke - 3rd place
Gent-Wevelgem - ?

[Robyklebt]

E3 Harelbeke

Cool race, the Donkeys nowhere to be seen at the end. Not unexpected.
Really hard to find a pre race favorite, Monks going for Vandierendonck, didn't think he had a chance really, but did well. So classics with sprint? Seemed a very open race without a clear favorite, turned out a bit like that.

The race was interesting, no real escape at the start, just 3 riders. Then at km 43 first sieb, by Donkeys, Quttiboyev. If I have pavé stars, might as well use them on the pavé. Donkey with 8 riders, Chartreuse first less but came up with Sala fast, then all 9. We continued together, many teams with fewer riders in front, more difficult to load. Took quite a while for the rest to come back to the front.

Next siebs at 113+126, mountain siebs, Rasmussen went on but somehow ended up out of tempo once after the first one. Second one came together after a few km again.
Then 147, ***, sieb with Hikmet by Donkey, good. But the problem then was that at this pint I was more or less out of ideas Until there my plan was clear, sieb on pavé without fighting, get a helper advantage for one of my 3 leaders (Armas, Belhassen, Wiedmer) then see. Now we were in the "see" phase.
Attack by Hikmet and Wiedmer at km 157 then, 2 reasons, one was go for Wiedmer, even if he had suffered from bad help a bit at some point, had no helper for a while, helping mistake. The second have somebody ahead for after the Oude Kwaremont in case Armas (who was the guy with 2 helpers as long as possible) or Belhassen get ahead somehow already there. Attack followed, was somehow logic, 2 Rasmussens, 1 Monk and 1 Liquigas. Good tactic by Monk there, he blocks the escape to a certain degree, thus increasing his chances for Vandierendonck. On the Kwaremont then only Tirpans and Ferrari, the Liquigas and the Monk stayed in front, Delco who had ridden from Rasmussen and Dufaux who hadn't dropped too, and Wiedmer. Grr. Well, too optimistic this Wiedmer as leader obsession I have...For one he already lost 2 mountain and 2,1 pavé.
In the back sieb on Oude Kwaremont, Armas was involved again, Falkenbier then took over a bit, but soon the Vandierendonck group was back. In front Tirpans surprisingly carried Ferrari on flat parts, 52-58 sprint yes, but that difference was nullified soon, Tirpans enjoyed riding it seems. Then after the groups were back together in the back, attack by Yoo and McKenzie by Falkenbier, everybody on McKenzie, only 2 guys on Yoo (he came from the Vandierendonck group I guess, so stupid people like me missed him...) Armas brilliantly wasn't following anybody at all at that point I think...
So Yoo, Caunes (Melange) and Novoa (kernaba) go on, catch the 2 leaders soon. Keep going, good collaboration between the 3, then Yoo goes out, logical, Novoa continued quite long, then Caunes, with most sprint the end alone. 27" advantage to the peloton later, Leinad simply didn't have the numbers, and Monks was understandably reluctant to really commit, after all he had Ferrari in front.
Armas came within 4" of the group on the Tiegemberg, but well, nobody following, so no chance vs the 88/87 in front then. In a way my making the race hard before hurt here, the natural allies of Armas were weakened most likely. So didn't even attempt to follow. Bah

Sprint, Ferrari in first position, not surprising, he rode little, then won the sprint. Sprint the only disappointing part of the race really, none of those further back tried to go early... So it was they finished the sprint the way they started it, Ferrari-Yoo-Tirpans-Caunes-Novoa. Good group, all 5 good winners. Monks made a lot of the race, sent Ferrari in front to control and then win, very good race, Falkenbier kept quiet, woke up when it counted, did the attack, went into sucking mode in the right moment, just wasn't enough. Liquigas did a teamattack by following with sort of late correction, 3 guys following the same guy? And then it takes him 3 km to correct that? Serious? And he seems sick or not his usual self, too much riding, he chased after the first sieb and Tirpans rode, lots, obviously too much compared to Ferrari, was clear from the start. Caunes really had not much choice in front, 61 sprint, he basically was forced to ride, and at some point you just continue, in the back no chance, so in front... rode too much, but what else should he do? Novoa probably rode too long too, but again, in front chances, in the back not.

Enjoyed the race, but probably need a better strategy for RVV. Make the race hard, then hope to be in the right group at the end didn't really work out here....

[Robyklebt]

Gent-Wevelgem

Donkeys dominate! Well, eh, ah, ok, not really. On the contrary. A black day in the history of the team, place 35 in Gent Wevelgem. And I like the race, more motivated for this than for E3 for example. But ok, wasn't a Donkey day.

Big group, nice, small escape, strange, but irrelevant I think. Unless it was a really big escape including at least 2 of the 4 pre race favorites, who then collaborate, it was going to be under control.

Pre race favorites: Jefferson, Vandierendonck, Leone, Kageyama. Thought those 4 would definitely be in the first group after the Kemmelberg. Kageyama wasn't, surprisingly for me. Was in the first group that didn't manage to come back. Probably could have if Poke had dropped Davies to that group and ridden, instead of riding a few km in the first group with Davies at first.

But ok, let's try it more chronologically, with a special focus on the team of the day, BIG DONKEY

4 leaders, 4 helpers, Armas free. Bogarin, Brotcorne, Hikmet, Lafargue protected. Leadership Bogarin, Brotcorne, the 2 others more fresh for helping later, Lafargue maybe for following some possible attacks, sprint plan if all comes together not a train, both solo. Hard conditions, so 1 helper not enough, but was too much work for me to change the helper settings, it's not MSR after all, so who cares, I don't need 1000. Don't think made a difference actually. Bogarin wasn't going to be with Jefferson even with 1000 I fear. If it did, bah, dumb Donkey.
Nothing really happening for the first 177 km. Nothing to do really, Lula mostly the one controlling. Which was not the obvious guy to control what didn't even need to be controlled, but with his Cavesco he had an outside chance, if following the right guy, so wasn't that outlandish as the usual suspects claimed.
First Kemmelberg, sieb, unfortunately I had fighting in, so 2? of my guys fought. Or 3? Some, anyway. Took it out immediately after, then later realized that it was 2 Kemmelberg passages, not 3! Ha! Back in! Mostly all back together for the second passage, sieb: Sieb by Davies, many groups, the first one, then the Gipfelgroup (that collected a few guys if I remember correctly) then the Alk-Kageyama group, then the Bogaringroup. Davies continued in front for a bit, until the Gipfelexpress came back, as I said at the start, strange decision I thought there. Drop Davies, ride for Kageyama, maybe enough to come back with Alks help. But didn't, stayed in front, caught, Gipfel and Monks then logically continued. Wait for the following group, the one with Kageyama... not sure makes sense, there's the 89 flat Alk there too. Wait for the Bogarin group? More sprinters, not only Bogarin... which makes the sprint much more open. Sonsteby 84 new best sprinter, Poke with 76+76, Donkey with 69-76, Tukh gets another 72. And doesn't guarantee the sprint either, many guys with flat who would be happy with a followed attack. IMO right decision not to wait for that group. And not the Kageyama either, Poke not riding there signaled he wasn't overly interested in that.

And seemed like Gipfel with 87-87-85, Monks with 85-84 and Ari with 84 could control it. Couldn't. Monks out, demanded a Ari in tempo, which ok, would be nice to see, but on the other hand is more for show then anything. Save energy for teh 87 in tempo the biggest benefit, for attacks might even slow the peloton down. And personally if I was Gipfel or Monks in that case I would prefer Ari to have his train. I do the work, he has the train, I go on it and see if I'm strong enough to get it. Seemed the perfect setup for collaboration really in the peloton. 3 clear favorites if it's a sprint, only 1 outsider, Alk. But for that to work having a fit train is good, better that then all dead and then the Alk-train runs away.... Ari procrastinates, Monks out, Feiting double attack. Van Looy and Bouckhaert, Van Looy with many followers logically, as 88 flat Novoa 87 another strong flat rider, but then it was 7 guys between 78 and 83. Brotcorne, that famous second leader for the Donkeys? Not following. Had analyzed and seen the potential attackers a few km ealier and decided not to follow. Some deep thinking and complicated reasons I'm sure, fortunately I forgot already, but thought I put following in later. Once that group was gone though my race was over. Even if the group was caught, then the tempo would be too high to get away most likely. And now Brotcorne the one standing out with the flat skill, so followed. Still tried an attack just to see at 2 km from the end, didn't even get away...
Monks going out here, probably the trigger for the attack? But not sure if it made a difference he was back in very fast, but the group still went away. And with him in probably the attack was going to be successful as well.

Group then cooperated very well very fast, a bit suprising looking at the sprint values. 63 to 46, Fraegg with 2 riders, 46+50 sprint... But once all in, they stayed. and stayed. And stayed. And stayed. A bit suprising, finally 4? 5? (forgot) km from the end Liquigas went out. with 56 not the first to go out I would have thought, but ok. FEiting then followed, I though Fraegg would go out with at least one at around 10km from the end. And Feiting with one, Bouckhaert with 55 sprint, at 6-8 from the goal... keep Van Looy with his 88 in, but get some slipstream for the stronger sprinter. But all later, surprising. Sprint then lots of in and out and in and out and weird things, Liquigas won, IMO deserved. Which might provoke some outraged outcry by some, but he did it right, he went out when he should, cooperated at first, to get away, then out when it was time. And won the sprint, what's the problem? Not his fault others rode too long.

Sprinter group in the end came close again 3", after Novoa went out in front. Close. A bit unlucky, they didn't really do anything wrong from what I saw? Maybe all in earlier? Arvidsson seemed strangely fresh at the last km, just go with mass and trust that mass that it will block potential later attackers? Not sure how many km Arvidsson had already ridden then anyway. To me just seemed a bit unlucky for the peloton, no real mistakes, that group just happened to work together very well, can happen.

Brotcorne 35th in the end, forgot to put in sprint in time, put it in after the km change it seems. Ah well, fitting end to a disaster for the Donkey.
But well, wasn't that bad. Decided to go for Bogarin after all, after inscribing yesterday. First inscribed, Armas-Belhassen-Bogarin etc. Then, well, if Bogarin, then go for him, so redid the team, no 1 for Bogarin, out with Belhassen who was sort of no 2 with Brotcorne and Armas... forget him, Bogarin, so he gets Hikmet and Lafargue for the flat, since Brotcorne if possible stays in front. Armas back too, Belhassen not needed. With Belhassen would maybe have managed a top 20 But tried for Bogarin, I'm ok with that still. In front, Brotcorne not following was of course bad, fortunately already forgot the thinking behind it, so won't learn from mistakes and do it again!
Boring 177 km, only interesting from 218 to the end, that was really interesting.

That's the version of the race based on facts.
For the fantasy one maybe Gipfel can do the honors again?

[Liquigas-CND]

Monte-Paschi

Could only ride late so ended in a 12 teams field.
With SV Furpach and Jäger-LeCultre among the competitors decided to follow immediately a potential Furpach attack. Fabio Volpe followed Jonny Acosta but it was quite clear that the last Km will decide the winner.
Dynamo, Spree and Armorique chased the escape. Cristobal Fuenzalida (76-79-75 49 sprint) attacked on the last km but he ended the race at sprint against Kalidou Keita 76-83-49-48 sprint (Dynamo Leinad). Both Cristobal and Kalidou (probably) with top form but impossible for Cristobal to win the sprint on 6%.
For 2021 maybe we won't be so greedy and hopefully we can spend some extra money to buy classics with 53-54 sprint minimum as both Fuenzalida and Cattaneo suck when it comes to sprint but as we ride less than in the past it's difficult to afford classics with better starting skills.

P.S.We highly appreciate that RSF Training Mafia recently let our classics develop normally.

MSR

Joined the afternoon field this time which was a good choice considering the great tactic prepared for this MSR.

The main favo was Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer) 72-62-65 -83 sprint then:
Fredrik Söderberg (Liquigas-CND) 62-67-76 77 sprint)
Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey) 61-73-75 76 sprint
Hironobu Kageyama (Pokemonogatari) 67-74-75 76 sprint
Lautaro Casademont (CircleCycle) 64-73-71 74 sprint
Leander Hediger (Hansa) 71-74-55 72 sprint

The tactic was obviously not to collaborate with others and let Gipfel, Donkey, Pokemon, CC and others to lose helpers and energy.
The plan worked very well, Söderberg stayed in front on Cipressa and the train Gaetano Leggio 73-75-68 63sprint,Fabio Volpe 65-81-78 63sprint and Söderberg 62-67-76 77(sprint) was ready and fit for the sprint.
All 3 had very good form even if Donkey thinks Soderberg had not the best form.

Sprint started:
-Kageyama sprints for Pincemail (63 sprint) and takes some meters in front but not enough obviously.
-Bogarin takes Jefferson wheel but Gipfel train is not able to keep up with Poke train.
-Casademont does a shitty sprint.
-Our train 63-63-77 seems to be the strongest and nobody dares to take Söderberg wheel cause it is obvious the one doing that automatically loses.
-Leggio does his job, Volpe the same, until 200 m everything goes as planned.
-Kageyama has some advantage but not enough, Jefferson is far behind with Bogarin in his wheel and this was the right moment for Söderberg to launch the sprint but he doesn't...it does not make any sense to explain why.
-Jefferson sprints at 200 m, Bogarin waits and launches the sprint at 100 m and wins.
-Söderberg ends MSR 3rd...fuck, maybe next time.

Gipfel worked a lot and would have deserved the win more but the Donkey deserved more than I would have deserved it for sure.

[Liquigas-CND]

E3 Harelbeke

The team management realized that we don't really have perfect leaders for this race so we could have a chance only with a lot of luck.
At km 43 nobody was fighting so half of our team was siebed by Donkey, did not think somebody will try to sieb so hard that early.
Not a good move for Donkey, IMO he could have better started to ride and sieb starting with km 98 and prepare a later attack. Don't know if he rode against me but it was obvious after seeing Donkey and CM lineups that they don't have the same view regarding the later developments of the race.

CM immediately helped Donkey and we had to kill 2 riders Rezaei and Leggio to bring back 5 helpers in the peloton.
For many kilometers our main leaders Laurens Tirpan (57-80-55-58 sprint-80.6 pave and Davide Cattaneo 75-80-54-43 sprint-71.6 pave) are in front only with Fabio Volpe and Oscar Sartor.

Km 138 Cristobal Fuenzalida , Fabio Volpe ,Oscar Sartor follow and Felix Krankl and Andreas Nägele from Donkey team... stupid settings
Km 159 Orhan Hikmet and Stephan Wiedmer(Big Donkey) attacks, Laurens Tirpan (Liquigas-CND), Lois Dufaux (Rasmussen) and
Ugo Ferrari and Najila Mendes (Chartreuse Monks) follow. Donkey goes first for few km, Laurens Tirpan joins, Monks drops Najila Mendes.
Km 166 Tirpan decides to ride seriously although it was obvious he has no chance alone until the end but the idea was to be in front at km 173 6%
hoping that others will attack from peloton and we can suck a while and still have a chance for a good result given the 58 sprint .
All others were dropped besides Ugo Ferrari (63-84-76-52 sprint, 76.2 pave) and we accepted to work for a while considering the better sprint but it was too much...should have never accepted to ride so many km alone and considering that CM was also the one riding earlier to keep the peloton and Gregory Vandierendonck (63-70-74-80sprint-73pave) close to the escape where he had Ferrari. This will be remembered anyway.
Normally you dont ride E3 for a guy like Vandierendonck but the classics were not used properly and the teams having classics with sprint did not collaborate. If this would have happened maybe would have tried something with Cattaneo but this time wasn't the case.
The expected attack happens at Km 180 where HyunMin Yoo 55-87-79-46 sprint-75.9 pave (Falkenbier) attacks, Jean Caunes 61-88-66-61 sprint-76 pave (Melange) and Jefferson Novoa 57-87-65-55 sprint-77.7 pave (kernabateam) follow and they work together.
Obviously Tirpan stops in front and waits but after too many km in tempo...
Yoo stops the tempo first, then Novoa, Yoo attacks at km 201 but is not fresh enough to let the others behind.

Ugo Ferrari (Chartreuse Monks) wins easily, HyunMin Yoo (Falkenbier) is 2nd, Laurens Tirpan (Liquigas-CND) 3rd, Caunes (Melange) ends the race 4th while Jefferson Novoa (kernabateam) 5th.
Should have started to sprint at 200 m just to avoid CM win.
BTW, the bloody b...... won also the sprint in Peloton.

Overall the tactic was good but not enough!

Deinze-Wevelgem

16 teams field so assumed that most likely will be a sprint for riders like Vandierendonck(CM) or Jefferson (Gipfel), Leone (Ariostea).
Tried to place Alvaro Trujillo in escape but Lunen was not convinced to ride, the escapes with Pokemon are not successful usually so I realized that escape is not going to work and preferred to use Trujillo as helper.
At the beginning wanted to protect Soderberg but in few KM changed the tactic and decided to prodect Volpe 66-81-78 63sprint 72 pave (form for MSR), Laurens Tirpan 57-80-55-58 sprint-80.6 pave (form for E3) and our leader for this race Oscar Sartor 55-83-64 56 sprint 82.1 pave.
The tactic was obviously to follow an attack after the 2nd Kemmelberg climb with Sartor, Volpe or Tirpan and try to win this way.

KM 177 Kemmelberg 1st climb: My leaders stay in front with Gaettano Leggio, all other helpers are siebed.
A bit of chaos, Alk rides behind in a group, Donkey in another group for Bogarin, Gipfel and CM are trying to keep them away.

KM 217 2nd Kemmelberg my leaders survive and now we are waiting for the big attack which comes at Km 234: Jonathan Bouckhaert 64-83-69 55 sprint 76.1 pave (Feiting Siebing) attacks, Marten VanLooy 60-88-62 52 sprint 84.1 pave (Feiting Siebing) attacks ,Yves Lampaert 73-81-56 50 sprint 72.3 pave (Fraegg) ,Oscar Sartor 55-83-64 56 sprint 82.1 pave (Liquigas-CND), Marcel Aust 66-82-46 61 sprint 75.4 pave(rsv lünen), Fèlicien Vervaecke 72-80-69 46 sprint 69.5 pave (Fraegg), Jefferson Novoa 57-87-65 55 sprint 77.7 pave (kernabateam), Andreas Buschhausen 63-83-68 54 sprint 74.3 pave (rsv lünen), Mathieu Pincemail 69-78-78 63 sprint 78.3 pave(Pokemonogatari).

The group started to roll nicely despite of containing Pokemon rider but probably he was too confident because of 63 sprint. I was convinced Pincemail has form for MSR...
Fraegg riders surprisingly worked. CM, Gipfel and Ariostea, if I remember well, tried to catch the group but it was not possible.
5 km to finish and with 8-10 seconds gap we decide to play some games, Sartor stops the collaboration, Lunen, Pokemon continue to ride.
At sprint, Sartor tried to take Bouckhaert wheel but somehow ends taking the wheel of Aust. Pincemail tries an early solo sprint but Aust takes his wheel.
Pokemon complains immediately, he starts to cry saying that Lunen is making us a gift. So the loser wants a gift from Lunen for himself but complains when Lunen decides to try to win this race...In Lunen situation I would have done the same, otherwise no chance for his rider.
Aust easily goes in Pincemail wheel and in that moment I realised that both Lunen and Pokemon riders are beatable despite of better sprint values.
Sartor launches the sprint at 150 m, Pincemail gets his wheel, Aust goes from 100m but is too far, Pincemail tries to go from 50m but is too weak.

Finally a classic win for the KING!

[Gipfelstuermer]

Another classic, another defeat - Sartor wins out of peculiar attack

Alk, Poke, Donkey, Liqui, Ari, Feiting (aka Gaurain), CM, .... many big names signed up for the real Gent-Wevelgem in the afternoon. But big names can still make a low quality race. Gipfel again controlling the race, having too many leaders in the team. JJ among the favorites, but Bogarin (Big Donkey), Söderberg (Liquigas), Kageyama (Pokemonogatari), Vandierendonck (Chartreuse Monks), Leone (Ariostea), Edwards (Alkworld) and Dulcianu (Tukh) seemed all ready suck on his wheel in the sprint and steal the win.

But some favos were dropped at the Kemmelberg. Bogarin, Kageyama and Söderberg all behind the first group after Kemmelberg with 8***. In the main group, CM helps for Vandierendonck, but Ari hesitated to join. CM goes out, Ari still doesn't join. Gaurain with a smart attack, but 8 people follow. Then comes the strange part. Gaurain likes his attack too much and continues riding, Fraegg the same and kernabateam the same. Obviously no chance with their flat riders without relevant sprint-skill vs. Pincemail (63sprint), Aust (61sprint) and Sartor (56sprint). Sartor being the smartest helps a few km, then goes out. Others with less sprint continue for multiple km's. In the meantime, Ari and CM join Gip in the chase, but it is not enough given the embarrassing tempo of some teams in front.

Good thing is, JJ wasn't even Favo in peloton. Clearly with MSR form and only 63 flat, he can't be favo in a 251km flat race, where all the helpers kill themselves in the race. So JJ finishes 3rd in peloton behind Vandierendonck and Leone. Liqui wins in escape because the others did not have the killer-instict. Well, shouldn't need to much killer-instict to see, that you cannot win with 50 sprint vs. 63 sprint, but ok, we all sometimes are too confident. I'm too confident all the time! 5th classic this year, no win. The km1 escapes should complain about me riding in peloton at all... clearly not my job...

Omloop: 2nd place
Strade Bianche: 2nd place
MSR: 2nd place
Harelbeke: 3rd place
Gent-Wevelgem: -

Now need to think about April. DDV, RVV, Scheldeprijs, PR, Brabant, Amstel, FW and LBL make 8 chances, but difficult to set form...