14h pavé tour

[Robyklebt]

Well, ape there. And Gaurain. And Delfini. Nobody else so far..... JOIN!

[Robyklebt]

YES, despite the traitor FL, we beat 10h, 9 teams instead of 6! Uff.. not really a big group either, but at least not 3-4 teams like it looked until a short while ago.
Still a shame not to have nice 15-20 groups, plus don't really understand why.

[team fl]

Kwalität instead of Kwantität at 10h!

[Robyklebt]

Pff, you have no clue you traitor!

[flockmastoR]

would have been fun but no time at 14 or any other time for a tour, last week Lanquedoc was catastrophic

have fun!!

[Robyklebt]

Fun? With damn Lodewick? Grr.

Best chance for a stage win basically today for my team, then that guy dominates Alighieri. DOMINATES. Grr. No chance for sweet Leonardo. Lodewick big favorite for green anyway, will be hard to beat him tomorrow and the day after.

Yellow: Still a bit a mystery for me. My leader Alighieri of course. But who is he fighting against.... 70-80 with pavé like Gaiolle? Or Kilian Wenger? Or the 70-80 of Vuvu, or the 56 pavé hero of Vuvu? Or can Lodewick with help get over the mountains? After all no team has a really strong mountain-pavé team. Alighieri fairly isolated, Gaiolle too, but could help Lodewick if necessary... We'll see... first day for the ape ok in the end. Hoped to win, was his best chance somehow, didn't work, grrr.

Rossi, offline, 18"
Wenger, the same
Vuvu 70-80es at 40"

Tomorrow should be much harder, some riders will lose more.. clearer favorite than today though, Lodewick being the strongest pavérider and the strongest sprinter... mmh. We'll see tomorrow how it goes.

[gaurain rx]

Héhé...

I put Alighieri as clear n°1 fav' for gk. With Kristoffersen as biggest opponent... Gaiolle, we'll see.

Biggest advantage for the Leonardo boy is that he's the clear leader in his team. Leader for Cobble and for Hillycobbled stage. With his great sprint, he can take lot of points so a good deal in case of same seconds in gk. And he has a fairly good army (the 3 55+, 83+) to sieb the flat cobble guy soon in a stage!

Marthe did good today so it gives him an advantage on the other classic guys. Anyway, he should suffer a lot tomorrow with a team a bit too weak on cobble. But with Skari and Hackl, he has two brilliant helpers for the hilly stages.

Gaiolle, biggest prob for him is Lodewick... The best guy in cobble and in sprint. That could bring 3 stage win! So, will surely to do a choice between the 2 sooner or later. Gk or stage wins? And I think stage wins are more realistic than winning gk. But we'll see, should still think about it

[Robyklebt]

Ha, while his manager was fighting sleep, Alighieri wins! Only regret. No Olimpiu win, really really would have liked to win a race with Olimpiu, but yesterday probably was the last chance of his career. And he had to prepare the sprint for Leonardo. Anyway, Alighieri wins, all good, pavé tour saved, first win in the pavé tour since Anton Hasler for the ape. Well, first win ever for the ape, was Robyklebt who won with Hasler. Aaah, give me a Hasler again!!! Long escape by Pavel something from ABC Polsat, which I underestimated a bit, though a dead rider loses more than 30" on pavé... he loses less. Gaurain reacted earlier, but I worked too. Didn't really think I could win the stage, hoped, but was fairly sure it would be Lodewick again. First work siebed three Gaurains, bah, thought 1 and would have waited for that one, but 3? Exciting, so continued a bit, when he gave up in the back, back to blue, I mean, his stage. Wrrrrrrrong, ALIGIHIERI! Ha. Profited from Gaiolle though, Gaiolle dropped on the last 5 was perfect, so Lodewick didn't attempt his sieb, then Olimpiu very likely is gone, and Alighieri would be fighting too maybe. Probably, 83,5 vs 79. Which shows me that Gaiolle still wants to win the Tour. Good, a possible ally in some situations. Because I don't see it as clearly as Gaurain. Ok, usual negativity when own riders have chances, but...

Alighieri my leader, of course
Kristoffersen 17" most expected a bigger loss yesterday, me too, but not much bigger. 25-30 maybe. For me was clear I would only sieb in the end.
Gaiolle: 08" his problem is Lodewick of course. Or he is Lodewicks problem. But already ahead of Kristoffersen.
Wenger: 1'11", he's out. Falke is obviously not riding for him, he had 3 others in front.

But, attention, the ape actually in a way thinks

Aslan Kursherevsky might be his biggest opponent. 56-83 with 82,x pavé, second best pavé rider. Not sure at all in our group a "classic" really is favored, sometimes even half thinking if maybe Leibundgut wouldn't be an option.... but ok, easier with one leader. Plus doubt Leibundgut can beat Kursh anywhere...

The teams:
Petit Singe: Alighieri 67-79-79 then Haryono 62-85-75,7 then Wei 57-83-75,5, Leibundgut 55-87 80,4 meaning. Mountains yes, but Alighieri with 35 reg can't go on his own. and even with 65 reg, doesn't change that much, he can't go on solos, will be caught. That means 1-2-3-4-of the other guys will have to be there anyway, which basically guarantees Aslan in the front too.
Gaurain: Gaiolle 71-80-77,1 Lodewick 48-85-83,5 Gorius 56-86-77,3 Pauwels with 50 mountains there too. Again, even though Gaiolle has 49 reg he can't go alone really. he needs support. Or I misread the stages... so that means Gorius with 56, that means again, he can't really drop Aslan either.
Bayern: Kristoffersen, 72-77-74,9 He has 2 guys stronger than Aslan, Skari 65-84-73,5 and Hackl 59-87, 76,2 Strongest pavé rider though Seidl 50-88-79. He in theory has the chance to continue after non pavé mountains, if there is a good sieb... but today those are far, last day not perfect for that either, so... very likely not dropping Aslan either.
Falke: Leader? Jäggi? 53-87-80,7 Wenger by now seems an unlikely leader. Setyabudy a bit weaker than Jäggi everywhere, except sprint. No need to even write down the support riders, the leader himself is "weaker" than Aslan, hard to beat Aslan of course, but who knows. Looks like more stage chasing than GC actually right now.

That's the 4 other "BIG" teams.
Of course there is Delfini with Rossi, excellent leader, 70-82-79,9 but more offline than on, plus no team, alrady lost some time and no experience. Still, not completely out yet.

Then Vuvuzela:
Kursherevsky 56-83-82,7 Harper 70-77-74 Wayne 55-87-77,7, 2 other 70+ mountain guys, 2 other 60+ mountain guys. He has the perfect team to drop Kursherevsky... only problem of course that he has no interest in doing that. So.. IMO Kursherevsky will stay there until the finish each time, without to many troubles. Then the final, today if anything only seconds, tomorrow his a stage for him again, last stage then... with a 6 as the last difficulty, the biggest probelm.

All 5 teams mentioned IMO with chances. Smallest Falke. Then second smallest IMO Bayern with Kristofferson. The 3 others teams, not sure really.
mountain: 1 Gaiolle 2 Alighieri 3 Kursherevsky
flat: Kursherevsky 2 Gaiolle 3 Alighieri
pavé: 1 Kursherevsky 2 Alighieri 3 Gaiolle

Team support

mountain: 1 Vuvu 2 Ape 3 Gaurain
flat 1 Ape 2 Gaurain 3 Vuvu
pavé 1 Gaurain (Lodewick at times, maybe not always) 2 Ape 3 Vuvu

So... basically the leader and support kind of cancel each other out, every team has it's strength where the weakness of the rider is.
So, not sure at all how it will end up. Could go either way. Stage 5 will very likely bring the decision, there Gaiolle the strongest, in the end if he isn't dropped before.

40-30-30 Alighieri-Kursherevsky-Gaiolle? Or too pessimistic for Alighieri? Too optimistic? Or do Kristoffersen and the Falkes deserves more chances? Ok, 30-25-25-10-5, ups, 5 missing... mmh, 32-27-27-10-4?

Should be an interesting 3 stages left though. Hope for better connection than yesterday, had my clock on for sectricks, at times I saw the km at 50"... most of the time between 20-40, brrr, ok, rideable, as long as it doesn't get worse I'm more or less ok, but if it gets worse, grr

[Robyklebt]

Stupid attack today probably, well for sure since Alighieri is under reg now the idiot.. .but bah... anyway, 2" lost to Gaiolle, 6" remaining.. tomorrow.. gaining time not easy, 77,1.. not easy to drop... maybe Lodewick wants to try? Hihi. Should have followed Gaiolle anyway. Attack good for green though, like this 12 points advantage, not too shabby. Otherwise fairly sure Lodewick scores points too..Friday then, mmh, not sure what will happen then yet... But let's put the new percentages at 30-30-25-10-5 or something.

Tomorrow Aslans day, maybe Alighieri, after tomorrow Gaiolle... Still doubt the 2 others, Kristofferson and Jäggi, can win it, but maybe I'm wrong...

[Vuvuzela]

Aslan on 2nd now, but I think no chance to win the tour for him because of fridays stage. Not much action till now, maybe in the next stages...

[Robyklebt]

Arslan
Alighieri 3"
Jäggi 11"
Leibundgut 21"
Gaiollle 23"
Kristoffersen 25"

Final favorable to Alighieri, Gaiolle and Kristofferson, but Arslan surely has the team to make the ape suffer to arrive there. Gailloe and Kristofferson... still not completely hopeless, but outsiders now. Jäggi.. just where he is, in between everybody. Markus an excellent helper for Alighieri..

Today hard stage because of the weather, in the end gained time on Gaiolle, Gaurain bad connection or something before the last pavé strech came, otherwise he doesn't lose any time... then not sure what happens with Lodewick, might be that he attempts a second sieb at the last 3? Not sure, or maybe nothing changes with Arslan.

Tomorrow team fitter than today, managed to bring Olimpiu under reg though, happy, was pissing me off the the only guy who really is completely useless seemed to stay above reg! A few others not at 100, but in the end happy with the result, if I didn't miscalculate...