14h Giro di Francia, aka the post Giro criterium also known as Tour de France 2024

[Robyklebt]

Time to make a thread.

Donkey at the start:

Guaranteed places since a while:

-Magnifico Garcia: Leader or co-leader
-Estanislau Almirall: 60-80, helper, escaper
-Stanley Longbottom: 60-80, helper, escaper
-Wilson Stringfellow: 88 flat, flat star
-Enea Novelli: asshole and classic, battery

That leaves 4 places:

Candidates:
Ceriel Bucquoy: Hill sprinter, money sprinter role. He has since been eliminated after looking at the route more closely
André Chassot: sprinter, sprinter
Custodio Fortuny: Young pavé man, flat rider here. Eliminated after not training in the last training
René Henri: 88 flat, aging flat star, flat star.
Ruud Koopman: 81 flat, young flat rider.
Matisse Magritte: Almost 60-80 old pavé star. 60-80/flat/pavé helper
Excelino Marquez: 88 mountain, aging climber, leader/co leader
Pahikore Taiaora: young future flat rider with reg.
Tapihana Uru: 64-76, future classic, battery
Haregot Woldemariam: Overprized classic, classic regman


Of these 10 riders, now René Henri, André Chassot and Excelino Marquez have been selected to join the team. Henri old, but 88 flat still helpful, the risk of more mountain downtraining big, but we'll deal with it when it happens. Chassot, there seems to be enough flat sprint to bring him over Bucquoy. And Marquez not downtraining, winning the Colombian championshiop, so he deserves another chance at stage race glory.

Bucquoy, Fortuny, Koopman on the other hand will not start, lack of training for Koopman, lack of reg (and missing the last training) for Fortuny. And Bucquoy because Chassot makes more sense.

So 2 places left. 2? Yes, the guaranteed place of Novelli has just been unguaranteed.

In the race for this 2 spots:
Magritte (minimal chances)
Novelli
Taiaora
Uru
Woldemariam

We'll now analyze some more before we come to a definite lineup. What we can already say:

1 E. Marquez: No 1 earned by winning the Colombian NC. He's not sole leader here
2 E. Almirall
3 A Chassot
4 M. Garcia
5 R. Henri
6 S. Longbottom

7-8-9 depends on who fills the remaining spots

[Gipfelstuermer]

Ha! I was 7min earlier, but RKL has the better title!

So I re-post:

Seeing T-Mobile-A in the Inscriptions, so there will be coffee and cake, excellent!

Let's get hyped! Here is our line-up including the freshly baked new French champion.

x1 Yotam OTTOLENGHI
x2 Alfonso BIALETTI
x3 Alexis AÏNOUZ
x4 Angelo MORIONDO
x5 Salman CETINER
x6 Enver ATABAY
x7 JeanMichel AMIC
x8 Christophe ORSINI
x9 Peter SCHMALEN

Who else will join the coffee ride through France?

[Tukhtahuaev]

After winning the Giro in the inferior morning edition, we will try to get a real GT win in a proper field

Lineup is mostly set, but a few spots still remain open

1. Vladislav Tarabesh - Giro winner and GC leader for the tour
2. Magomed Bakayev - Classic hoping to also get decent sprint results
3. Sarvar Otakulov - Classic and probably most important helper for Tarabesh
4. Botond Becze - Young classic, hopefully going to improve over the tour
5. Olayuk Arlooktoo - Helper for hilly terrain, should become stronger with every week
6. Taras Voloshyn - Close to 60-80, helper for every terrain
7. Reuben Kemp - Money sprinter

Final 2 spots will be between
Beksultan Babakhanov - Classic helper, unlikely due to his age and other classics being stronger
Nurdaulet Rakhimzhanov - Helper similar to Voloshyn
Shodiyor Gafurbekov - Pavé/flat star, probably too expensive when there is not much need to block on flat stages
Ilya Pashkevich - flat helper with reg, likely to be in
Mihkel Kask - cheap flat helper

[schappy]

My lineup is fix, but dont know if i start here or in the evening. Today here, maybe tomorrow another thing. 2 weeks Holiday in it, so 14h is maybe not good for holiday. Have to plan these two weeks.

#x1 Fenna Kalma, maybe some chances for a stage, but normally only here for top 10 gk
#x2 Emily Schumann, little Miss Sunshine maybe goes for the youth Jersey
#x3 Nadija Belkina, classic with downhill, so we will see
#x4 Vanessa Voigt, my training shero, really good training the last weeks so a good help to bring the other back infront
#x5 Elisa Seidel, young and try some escapes maybe
#x6 Julija Lewtschenko, younger but try the same
#x7 Andreas Klosterhalfen, road captain and really cheap
#x8 Moritz Morgenstern, he have to learn from Andreas for the future
#x9 Georg Hochhausen, Sprinter to get some top 5 places in the sprints

[Schartner Bombe]

Sorry we had to change starttime again.

[C.Pommes]

The fries are there, but No clue with which team.
Lenny? Sprinttrain? I have No clue.
Probably Not that much time the Last 3,4 days, that speaks against Lenny.
So it will be a Last Minute decision which i will regret for the next 3 weeks.

[gaurain rx]

I will happilly follow and cheer for the Teams of the Afternoon group in the "supporter" chat. Thought about joining but already knowing I would at least half of the stages!

[Robyklebt]

Gaurain is back?

Incognito though it seems, Sherlock Donkey had no idea one of those new teams was Gaurain! Who is it? Viva Guarain!

[gaurain rx]

Gaurain is back?

Incognito though it seems, Sherlock Donkey had no idea one of those new teams was Gaurain! Who is it? Viva Guarain!

No no no, I won't participate and I have no new team. Only in the spectator chat as "chearleader". No time for 21 days of RSF...

[Elaska]

I will happilly follow and cheer for the Teams of the Afternoon group in the "supporter" chat. Thought about joining but already knowing I would at least half of the stages!

Ohhh Gaurain le plus flandrien des wallons. Ou l'inverse ?

Where is your team?

[CircleCycle]

CC here with expensive lineup:

Sullivan - Costigan - Myklebust for gc ambitions
Marxer - Falafel - Brenes for sprint ambitions
Hwang - Kazbek - Wolde for controlling + get the sprints.

Big question is, if Sullivan can win a stage or play a role in the gc. I doubt it.
So Natanzon wins and the green jersey as goals, maybe some escapes too?

[Robyklebt]

Cheering is good! Welcome back in that role then for the moment, if you ever feel like giving us some tactic lessons, I'm sure you'll find the inscription button

[Robyklebt]

GC

The Donkey is still a bit in "Garcia is leader" mode, so he doesn't really see the GC properly yet, but I think he'll come around and see that at least until the 5th Marquez is just the much better leader...

2 climbers of course is an advantage too, but having to get rid of the Rabo TT guy of course makes it a bit the Donkey's job. Which means get rid of Weening costs us the second card most likely, and weakens the team a bit vs Tarabesh, Wingelaar, Sullivan.

Short overview

Weening: 82 mountain, no puller up, 74 TT. 25+34km, no idea how much he wins, somebody tell me. But one being a mountainous one, the other one hilly too, shouldn't be too much. Without much calculation, but including the notorious and toxic offlining of the manager, have to say he seems rather beatable? Helpers ok, but a bit of flat missing.
Marquez? 88, risk of down training, double climber, quite good chances, 73 classic behind with reg. Then 3 60+, one should come up to 65, 66 on the 5th and 12th.
Garcia? 85, if we change back to him as leader, he has an excellent helper. Good for the stupid gravel, can hope to stay with Sullivan (on paper higher gravel aptitude, but on gravel flat still counts a lot, so wouldnt' be surprising if he's still behind Sullivan)
Tarabesh? 87, risk of training, risk of being equal or better than Marquez at some point. No second climber, but 2 very good classics, one without downhill though. But loading should always be possible
Wingelaar? Relatively isolated, 72 classic best helper. Not much reg. The usual passive race hoping to strike for stage wins while staying in the GC I guess
Sullivan? 85 only, but of course he'll play a role. The unfortunate design of the gravel stage almost guarantees that. 53 TT helps too. 38 reg doesn't, the team on top is similar to Tukh, behind there's less mountain though, a 60-80 is clearly missing.
Ottolenghi: Will be taken along for the ride against Weening more often than not probably. If Gipfel manages not to let him wait for Aïnouz and other funny stuff, I might have an idea where Marxer is hanging out, in case FL is still looking for him.
Kalma: Have the suspicion he'll end up wearing yellow at some point.

So ok, Marquez indeed looks good, once I wrap my brain around the idea that he is the logical leader completely. Was having complicated tactical masterpieces in my mind, but probably riding it easy makes more sense, for the moment he IS the best climber. And percentages probably say that he will stay at least the co-best climber for the duration of the Tour...

What's interesting or a bit frustrating for me is that all the climbers have really similar sprint skills. Well, the 85+ climbers anyway. So while often Marquez (and Garcia) could rely on their Roglic impressions in the last km, here not really, if it's a sprint, it's completely open. Giro d'italia a sprint stage win was much more fulfilling than a climber win, here I would prefer to win something with the climbers. Of course want both ideally. 2 stages sounds good, but let's hope for one first.

[schappy]

Where is FL? He have to do the Favo Check. Not our fault he isnt in our race.

Until he do his Job, i will Try a short Version.

GC:
***** Erik Weening
****
*** Vladislav Tarabesh, Excelina Marquez
** Lenny Wingelaar, Yotam Ottolenghi, Colin Sullivan
*

Should be a very Interesting thing here. This one Team is important to be online. The other have some interesting Teams, the little things will decide this.

Sprint Jersey:
***** Matvey Natanzon
****
***
**
* Magomed Bakayev, Renato Marxer, Dylan Groenewegen, Cas Klijn, Andre Chassot

Very clear. Nothing to write about.


Youth Jersey:
***** Emily Schumann
****
***
**
* Tapihana Uru, Leo Eef

Very clear too.

Mountain Jersey:
***** The Guy who want to ride for
**** A Strong Mountain rider
***
**
*

Team-Classment:
***** Tukhtahuev
**** Big Donkey, Gipfelstürmer
*** CircleCycle
** Schappy
*

[team fl]

Go afternoon!

Favourite check: Everybody's a loser because Team FL does not particiapte! There you have it, ha! But to cheer you up, here's some upbeat music about the best edition for every GT:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu1UXCdyNo0

[Robyklebt]

Hm, favorite check, IMO Weening was never favorite.

1) He's often offline.
2) Even when online, he will lose time repeatedly vs the climbers
3) The stupid gravel stage. 56,5 is almost ok, he can hope to stay with Tarabesh, Wingelaar, flat plays into it too, 61 is better than 58 or 60. Marquez might end up in that group too. But due to the lack of flat in his team if he once drops behind those, it's minutes.

It's between the others.

Mostly wrote everything before. After today Ottolenghi seems already out? The rest open. Marquez and Tarabesh 20" back, Garcia another 8" further behind, don't like it, giving Schappy yellow the other day wasn't rewarded... grrrr, hoped I help him, he helps us, but no.
Hoped to get some time back today. First Woldemariam attack with no real great plan behind that, see who hangs, what happens, turns out should make plans maybe, that turned out to be a bad attack. Then double attack, hoped Tarabesh on me and follows, he did, hoped the others on Garcia, 2 were, surprisingly Kalma and Ottolenghi not, IMO they have to risk following there. Likely they follow on a 7 where flat still counts. And Garcia not fully fit since brilliantly forgot to put Chassot on helping again after the sprint, and was riding with his second helper then.... 20 energy less. Ok, can't know that.
Hope was Tarabesh+Marquez go alone, with their downhill stay away from the followers group, with Schappy on -2 a big problem, but he wasn't there. But those guys in the back won back the 2 seconds... all together on top, but the Woldemariam followers, with the exception of Woldemariam himself were all there... blah. Woldemariam with less energy not surprising, 1 helper, then 0, then 1 again, didn't think he would be important after all, had Uru not helping at first, then later Stringfellow stop helping. Or something like that? Without that counter productive attack the 5 climbers go through, maybe not with perfect collaboration due to Donkey having 2... but on the other hand with Sullivan and Wingelaar having the chance to get yellow, would hope they ride till the end, same for Tarabesh with 55 sprint. Then Garcia who took it easy riding up with the stage, perfect plan! Destroyed by Woldemariam, should have brought Novelli maybe! An asshole, but at least no risk of attacking with him.

A bit surprising thought that 2 vs 2 Sullivan and Wingelaar were able to come back, didnt' expect that at all, maybe one of the 2 has rather early form?

So no time back for Tarabesh and Marquez, grrr. More mountain for Marquez, more sprint for Tarabesh, rest the same, ok, more gravel shit for Marquez. Downtraining vs uptraining, but for the moment I'd be ok going for that duo,until I lose too many sprints against him and start being too far back....If I ever manage to drop him that's ok too, but 1 difference often follows... grr. Today was happy he follows anyway.

Aïnouz should now keep yellow rather easily till the pyrenees, depending on how it's ridden there even to the Alps. Will win time in the TT, will win time in the gravel stage, after that it's losing. Having Ottolenghi as puller probably won't make much sense.

After the end of the week of the climbers it should be:
1 Kalma good TT, best in gravel.
2 Sullivan rather clearly. With the rest depending a lot on the gravel, Garcia could be anywhere between 3rd and 6th (of the climbers) Wingelaar ahead of Tarabesh and Marquez seems clear, the question will be how big is Sullivan's advantage.
Then 2 days Pyrenees, 2 days Alps.

But now some sprint fun, Stringfellow not fit tomorrow, if you wanted him fit, CC could have ridden a bit too:) But ok, looked at the wrong stage too, thought it's the one of Thursday tomorrow, then STringfellow unfit is not such a problem, like this with the sieb late.... hm, a bit worried about Chassot! Only Henri fit to pull him back, not easy if I'm behind other flat riders and somebody doesn't want to wait.

A sprint today, on Wingelaar with both, then decided to try a train, Marquez from front, Garcia following. NO opposite. But put out following too late. So Marquez far back, bring him up, sprint right, next follow Aïnouz, change with Garcia, then go...instead of going put in go with Garcia so of course Garcia never changed to that train, a big fuck up there... but ok, wasn't going to win, but maybe 4" bonifications or so which wouldn't hurt.
Ah, bad luck on Galibier too, my 2 stars 4th and 5th, not ideal with the bonifications. Not ideal at all.
But Uru keeps the dots, let's hope Tukh is happy to let Uru enjoy that till Saturday, if he wins all 3 GPMs tomorrow and Thursday he gets it before the TT! Don't do that, bad Tukh. Long term not interested in that with Uru, Marquez, Garcia, like the other climbers will somehow be in the fight for it automatically, if it looks like I have the GC wrapped up before the Alps, I might go for the dots too. Or if I manage to fuck the GC up before the Alps:)

[Robyklebt]

7 stages done.

Winner so far: CC! 3 stages, all with Natanzon, green seemed decided after stage 3, even more so after stage 7. Sullivan still in GC fight, not that it's surprising.

Loser so far: Big Donkey: No win, 5 teams won, 7 in the race really, of the non-winners, Schappy got to wear yellow for 2 days, that's worth more than Uru and his ugly dots.

Donks hope to do better in the next 7 stages. Lots and lots of wins!

[Gipfelstuermer]

First restday. Time for a quick review and some stats.

Initially, I thought 9 teams for the afternoon is a bit disappointing. 1 less than for the Giro. 2 less than TDF last year. Despite user numbers overall being up. Maybe the afternoon has become less popular? Or maybe it's just the parallel program? Friday we had 30 teams riding at 14:00! 9 in the TDF, 9 in Austria, 12 in the one day race.... so it's just that Grand Tours aren't that popular right now, despite the luques prize money factors, which will make this TDF relatively profitable for the 9 teams.

Out of the 9 teams, one is completely off (t-dopile) and one 90% off (Rabo) which is unfortunate because Weening could have been a GC contender if Rabo was online more often. So it's mostly 7 teams racing, leading to some boring energy-saving tactics from time to time. During sprint stages, the few escapes/attacks had no chance as the teams with sprinters collaborated and had no mercy. Then during stage 8 and stage 9, where escape wins seemed likely, all 7 active teams were protecting their GC riders and/or had stage candidates in their teams.

Luckily, we were able to get our stage win early on in stage 4. A surprise win for Aïnouz in Valloire, after he had the instinct to follow the right attacks before the peak of the Galibier. The cherry on the cake (we need more coffee & cake in weeks 2&3 by the way @TMA) was taking the maillot jaune that day, extending the lead throughout the week and keeping it until the first rest day. On the other hand, Ottolenghi didn't have that instinct on the Galibier and is only 13th in GC, 5'28'' behind Aïnouz, effectively behind all other climbers, except Garcia (who looks like a Marquez helper after the gravel stage but could still play a role) and Weening (who at 6'38'', if he came online, could even still get back into the fight for yellow).

With the stage win box ticked, our luxury problem now is to have two leaders. Considering six mountain top finishes, Ottolenghi claims he will overtake Aïnouz in GC anyway. But Aïnouz wants to honor the maillot jaune as long as possible. For the other teams, except Big Donkey and us, it seems clear who the leaders are. Sullivan for CC, Tarabesh for Tukh, Wingelaar for CreditPommes and Kalma for Schappy. Marquez and Tarabesh continue to look best suited for the last two weeks, with a small advantage for Marquez: 4'' right now, plus one mountain point, plus Garcia as a helper. The only point speaking for Tarabesh is the vibe of a Giro winner. But the Giro-TDF double is difficult. Not as difficult as in reality, but of course he is the rider that all the others are watching. To complicate things, Big Donkey and Tukh need to watch the other GC candidates. We have Aïnouz who will try as long as possible (currently 4'34'' on Marquez) and there is also Sullivan to be mentioned, who has acquired a nice 54'' advantage on Marquez throughout the first few stages. Kalma and Wingelaar are also still in the race. Even Garcia, Ottolenghi and Weening aren't completely out of the race, yet.

So, with 6 out of the 7 active teams kind of looking at the GC, despite some boredom in some of the stages so far, the GC fight looks quite promising and should be entertaining for all those weak spectator teams who should have joined the TDF instead of the irrelevant parallel programm


Stage wins by riders
3 - Matvey Natanzon (CircleCycle)
1 - Magomed Bakayev (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Lenny Wingelaar (CreditPommes)
1 - Alexis Aïnouz (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Tobias Foss (T-Mobile-A)
1 - Thor Myklebust (CircleCycle)
1 - Eero Rantala (T-Mobile-A)

Stage wins by teams
4 - CircleCycle
2 - T-Mobile-A
1 - Tukhtahuaev
1 - CreditPommes
1 - Gipfelstuermer

Days in yellow
5 - Alexis Aïnouz (Gipfelstuermer)
2 - Fenna Kalma (Schappy)
1 - Magomed Bakayev (Tukhtahuaev)

[CircleCycle]

Good first week for the CCs:
3x Natanzon in MS, one win with Thor and overall Sullivan doing OK in GC.
Sprints were mostly boring, but Klijn got twice very close winning off Natanzons wheel. So what will happen in the flat stages of week 2? I think we might see another sprinter getting the wheel of Natanzon and that could also mean a new winner, or maybe some attack can make it?

for GC honestly no idea, but at some point the stronger climbers will win time against the rest.

Goals did not change, so Natanzon for green, even if it looks very good already will be the main priority.

[Robyklebt]

Second week over, we can put a stop to our "silenzio stampa", that we imposed on our riders and the press spokesdonkey after the lack of success in the first week.

Week 2: 3 wins in 6 stages, so excellent.

First win was the least surprising, after being beaten regularly in the first week, Chassot seemed to have much better legs after the rest day, got the win.
Wednesday then... ok, try the attack from far, but hadn't taken into account that Rabo might show up. He did, hadn't seen him on before, not sure if he just showed up in that km or was already there. With him there of course the attack had much smaller chances to succeed, without him we gain quite a bit on the next km, enough to go through? Not sure, but worth a try, not a hopeless attempt, it was with him there. Timeloss to Sullivan, stage to Rabo, who clearly is the best manager, 1 stage there in the decisive moment, 1 stage win... He should leave the tour next week though.
Thursday then anti-Natanzon and Chassot. Despite -1 hoped to double up, with the next day very hard to get a sprint didn't the anti-sprinters expect to try, they did, 14" in the end, annoying. For Tukh a good deal, green that seemed safe for Natanzon (CC probably saw it, since I wasn't in the fight I just looked at the points and thought ok, that's the way it will go) but 70 points that day, now he is the favorite.
Next day then first the training, Marquez keeps mountain, YES. Loses TT, not ideal, but better than losing mountain. News of the week! Race, verybody dead, so at 60 or so km from the end the Donkey went with Woldemariam and Longbottom. And it worked, got through... sprint actually looked very possible that day, the anti team only had few fit riders as well, but since Pommes-Cycle had put guys in front the day before, felt trying for the stage this way was ok, it worked.
Saturday and Sunday, twice almost the same result. SAturday good Sullivan attack in the final climb, but Marquez follows, Sullivan is forced to ride, Tarabesh does 1 or 2 km too, MArquez goes, Tarabesh follows, Marquez sucks again a km I think? And wins the sprint and stage. Today then tempo by Garcia, who now targets the mountain jersey. Tarabesh going for it triggered the manager. Might have cost us the stage today, those 2 red km, grrr. But if Tarabesh just lets chance decide, Garcia does nothing. Then in the Alps, if Tarabesh looks like he gets the GC, Marquez can try to go for the mountains, if it's the other way around, then Tarabesh. But if Tarabesh has a big advantage... bad. So Garcia now. Anyway, attack on 10, hoped Tarabesh doesn't follow, but good he did, otherwise maybe with his tempo they catch me again... Together as usual, expect to lose the sprint and 4". But wait, Kalma, in front, we might not get him!!! Was confident we would, wanted to wait another km with attacking even but took it out too late, 6" or 5" before the last 2 km, 6 and 3, try another attack, surprisingly this time I drop Tarabesh, save 1" on him, but can't catch Kalma. 3" won on Tarabesh. Better second behind Kalma than Tarabesh for sure, perfect would have been Marquez-Kalma-Tarabesh of course... but ok.

GC now Sullivan with 29" on Marquez, 43" on Tarabesh. For me it's between those 3, Aïnouz at 32" and Kalma at 58" also within a minute. Sullivan, good defence, very good defence in the Pyrenees, his problem is one big timeloss and he's out of it. And no reg, so stage 19-20 hard, has to be fit the next days too. For me advantage Marquez-Tarabesh, but if Sullivan keeps defending that well... and with a Wingelaar who seems to come into form late, who might help him then... who knows. Thought or hoped to win more on him in those 2 stages, but won't complain, 7" won on Tarabesh, 25" on Sullivan. Will need to be more in the Alps on Sullivan of course. So he's not out, but with the least mountain. The TT, no idea about that one, how much can he gain there. And of course for Marquez the training will be another important day...

Edit: Shit, that TT is longer with more flat than I remembered. Hm... need time on Sullivan, winning 40" in the alps not enough, 25" like in the Pyrenees not enough was clear. Hm... need a plan, but one that doesn't give Tarabesh too much time on me either. 35 km 4 difference, if it was flat I would have (wrongly) said 42", with the climb and downhill hopefully a bit less, but still need lots of time...

[Elaska]

Second week over, we can put a stop to our "silenzio stampa", that we imposed on our riders and the press spokesdonkey after the lack of success in the first week.

Week 2: 3 wins in 6 stages, so excellent.

First win was the least surprising, after being beaten regularly in the first week, Chassot seemed to have much better legs after the rest day, got the win.
Wednesday then... ok, try the attack from far, but hadn't taken into account that Rabo might show up. He did, hadn't seen him on before, not sure if he just showed up in that km or was already there. With him there of course the attack had much smaller chances to succeed, without him we gain quite a bit on the next km, enough to go through? Not sure, but worth a try, not a hopeless attempt, it was with him there. Timeloss to Sullivan, stage to Rabo, who clearly is the best manager, 1 stage there in the decisive moment, 1 stage win... He should leave the tour next week though.

[Robyklebt]

Tuesday, and Chassot strikes again. Can we add a rest day and the sprint in Paris for next Tuesday?

This time an escape goes, is let time, I planned to start slowly at around 10', T-Mobile did a bit earlier, so I waited. The 6% the expected sieb, Bakayev goes and gets some points for green. Then the chase, since Einkemmer was left behind, T-Mobile-A did less, which is ok, even with Einkemmer there. After all due to the lack of flat, his chances in the sprint aren't all that great. But still there. Then CC uses Brenes, that on the other hand helps everybody that isn't directly on Natanzon's wheel, makes the CC train much weaker. Mobile then back in for the last 30km, we got the escape quite easily, on the surface, but the Donkey was fighting with his energy a lot. And failed a bit, Woldemariam AGAIN under reg, this time more than the 999 he started with on Sunday...Longbottom rode too long as well. Uru under reg just from helping. So looking at tomorrow, I wasn't going to invest much more, Stringfellow earlier and under reg would have been ok though, so still some reserves. And guess for CC probably was a bit similar, although in his case it's really only the 2 unused classics that need to be fit tomorrow.
Sprint, surprise, for Marxer. Bad helping by CC, when he checked Natanzon was already at 820 he said later, ok, this sucks for him. T Mobile tries the sprint train, Natanzon just goes himself, would have thought he tries to get on the free Kemp wheel, but from Mobile maybe hard to see. Marxer then later goes on the wheel, while Groenewegen sprints from 250, at 150 both Marxer and Chassot go, Chassot a bit faster, gets blocked, but just a bit, back to the wheel, stayed there for 50 meters and then overtook Marxer for the win. Excellent.

But not as excited with this win as I was for the first 3 (ok, Woldemariam was less excitement than "revenge feeling" after failing to get a sprint the day before) I'm in full GC concentration mode, stage wins are pretty much irrelevant, except for those bonifications, that would come in handy for Marquez. Still a win is a win, but could have lived with Mobster winning it too. Kemp less, he doesn't work for it (nor should he)

Anyway, GC, no change, tomorrow again annoying bonifications on the road. Would be ok with an escape getting them really. Although maybe I have better chances of getting them there than beating Tarabesh at some finishes again? Hm... but we'll see, right now IMO escape would be ok there.
Thursday should be an escape or a classics sprint.
Then Friday, Saturday the moment to gain time on Sullivan for both Marquez and Tarabesh, while for both not losing time to the other is important as well. At 14" we're so close, and with Tarabesh one more TT point in his arsenal, that it's really not predictable who would come out on top after the TT. So could live with not gaining time, but losing time? No no. First TT Marquez with the same 50 TT was 4" faster, possibly earlier form? Although that could as well simply be luck. Sullivan with 3 more TT was 23" ahead. My slightly wrong calculation would say he should have gained.... 22,5" there. What does it all mean for our form setting. Well, I know mine, not the 2 others, although I do have my suspicions.
Anyway, nothing new happened in GC, all open, 3 guys fighting for the one spot, one of the most interesting Tours regarding GC I've ridden I think. Too bad we're only 7 active teams though.

The one jersey that seems decided, is green. Ok, white too, since day one of course. But of the other ones, green. Again, second time already. After the debacle today, 44 points for Bakayev. 14 points only for him today, without the helping trouble, it should be at least 16 more, possibly even the whole 50, so 36 more... then with only 8 or 28 points difference, Natanzon can still hope a bit. Attempt the sprint to Barcelonnette, hilly, so less points, but gain a few. And then since the CC team has no 60-80, just the flat stars and the the 2 classics he could have tried serial attacks tomorrow the day of Isola, to get Natanzon to the intermediates somehow. Still unlikely, but with 44 points to get back... virtually impossible?

Mountain at this point is between Tarabesh and Garcia, although Marquez isn't even that far back actually...advantage Garcia compared to Marquez because Garcia can just go red or blue on the HC and cat 1 climbs coming.. if he has less energy, ok, if Tarabesh loses energy on those hills, he might pay in the final climb, which makes Marquez happy. So Marquez relying on luck except at the finish, Tarabesh probably max green to get points...

But who cares, it's about the GC!

[Tukhtahuaev]

Very much looking forward to the final few days of this tour. GC fight is going to be very close, really not sure who actually has the best chances. Atm I wouldn't bet on Tarabesh. Marquez beat him two times in a row and he also still needs time on Sullivan, but maybe a good training (Or a bad one for Marquez) changes everything on the 20th.

Overall I'm very happy already. Bakayev almost certainly winning green was not expected at all and there are still chances to win the mountain jersey and maybe even GC, but I'm not optimistic about both

[Gipfelstuermer]

Annoyed by Aïnouz losing the maillot jaune, I forgot the update on the 2nd rest day. Losing it was expected, but it came a bit earlier than we had hoped. Aïnouz had finished the Giro 10' down on the winner Krausz, 8' down on the second placed Marquez. Here we had 4' advantage, which we never had during the Giro, so hoped to carry it through more than 2 out of the 6 mountain top finishes. Carrying it until Isola 2000 would have been nice.

But the situation in GC led to quite high tempo by the climbers. Sullivan's advantage vs Marquez and the lack of a helping climber for him, meant that Sullivan set the tempo throughout most parts of the climb to St. Lary Soulon and also on Plateau de Beille. Very much like Vingegaard actually. Set a high tempo, avoid being attacked early. Worked better than for Vingegaard. The Marquez/Tarabesh action came late and Sullivan is still ahead in GC... and even in yellow.

3 more mountain top finishes to come before the final hilly ITT to Nice. Sullivan in pole position? He only lost 13'' on Plateau de Beille but seemed it could have been more if Big Donkey used his superior helpers Garcia and Woldemariam more aggressively. To put pressure on Sullivan during the stage and/or just to get the full bonus seconds, which went to Kalma. So we expect it to be significantly more than 13'' on average per stage in the next three mountain top finishes. So Marquez' job is clear. Sullivan's job is to somehow prevent that. Tarabesh on the other hand needs a small surprise, as he needs to gain time on both, which seemed impossible so far, despite a lot of action from Tukh throughout all stages. Kalma and Wingelaar are also still in the race, I'd say. 58'' and 2'31'' not ideal but then the question is who will react how quickly if they attack. Should be 4 interesting stages then.

Stage wins by riders
3 - Matvey Natanzon (CircleCycle)
2 - André Chassot (Big Donkey)
2 - Magomed Bakayev (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Lenny Wingelaar (CreditPommes)
1 - Alexis Aïnouz (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Tobias Foss (T-Mobile-A)
1 - Thor Myklebust (CircleCycle)
1 - Eero Rantala (T-Mobile-A)
1 - Franz Flormann (RABO Bank)
1 - Haregot Woldemariam (Big Donkey)
1 - Excelino Marquez (Big Donkey)
1 - Fenna Kalma (Schappy)

Stage wins by teams
4 - CircleCycle
4 - Big Donkey
2 - T-Mobile-A
2 - Tukhtahuaev
1 - CreditPommes
1 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - RABO Bank
1 - Schappy

Days in yellow
11 - Alexis Aïnouz (Gipfelstuermer)
2 - Fenna Kalma (Schappy)
1 - Magomed Bakayev (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Colin Sullivan (CircleCycle)

[Robyklebt]

Marquez strikes again!

2" gained on Tarabesh, now 16", 24" gained on Sullivan, who is now 5" ahead.

Sullivan now is really close, even with the TT, where I don't really know how much he'll win, not the 40" it would be in flat I guess. But still would like to have more than 30" on him before the TT. As for Tarabesh... +/-10? So we're in the green regarding Tarabesh, still in the red, but in the right lane regarding Sullivan.

Tarabesh outsider? Doing too much? 16" back, 2 mountain stages left, he wins them both with the same time he's 8" back. He is VERY close to virtual yellow against Marquez at any moment, he needs 1 thing to go right for him and he has it, the advantage over Marquez. . So far it went rather for me, but today with the bonifications +3" was good for him, losing 1" in the finish is more a psychological blow than anything else. A psychological win for Marquez, that can backfire if now Tarabesh then demands breaks. So far he didn't, and he's right, because so far we needed every second vs Sullivan, he starts taking breaks with the better sprint? We both lose. If now Marquez wins another 5" on him the next mountain stage, then yes, then at 21" he's a bit far back. AT 14" like at the start today, at 16" like at the start tomorrow... he's close enough with 2 mountain stages, 1 training and 1 TT coming. And even today, 1", if he gets that back, which he probably would if he had taken the following out, then he normally wins the sprint and it's not 16" but only 7", then it's Marquez who is collaborating too much. One of us 2 (or maybe both) at the end will have regrets, AH, I rode too much, ah I should have taken a few more breaks, ah I shouldn't have collaborated... but at this points it's not really clear which one it will be.