First rest day, and have the race and the ape are certainly not on the same page. Not even in the same book. I'm completely blocked out for the moment, nothing really works.... Positive the TTT. That's about it really. For the rest? Ok, NoPikouze sitting, nothing to complain there. Otherwise, nothing really. Strade Bianche finally a failure, ok partly blame the connection. The rest? The same, a failure. The escapes, either I come too late, or then I end up back in the peloton sooner or later. One escape that could definetly have gone through, Haryono in, smoking, when I'm back I'm dropped, for absolutely nothing actually, after having killed Todea for well, yeah, nothing. Other try with Haryono yesterday, but Wizard there too, BW doesn't like it, me there probably not either, so understandeble that he gets us back.. So, well, escapes don't work. The rest, not either, Qian nicely misses the attacks early, that even on purpose to have him in the back, just in case there is an opening... if there was one I didn't see it, and missed the attack on Montevergine too, nice. Fahrny and Urganov basically do nothing at all for the moment. They really can't, yes, they could do some "cult" attacks like Nipp is specializing in right now, but what for... So wait. Plus my connection sucks, sometimes worse, sometimes better... anyway, yesterday I saw little of the climbs, both of them... used to it by now, even if I wanted to try something, I simply couldn't... maybe fortunate I can, yesterday I would very likely have attacked with Qian + Fahrny or Urganov in the first Etna when the peloton was waiting for the 60 climbers.... wouldn't have gone anywhere, so good my connection sucks. Always happy when it sucks more, then usually it sucks for everybody
So if I don't see 4 km, I probably know that nobody sees anything... Every 2-3 km was my standard in the last climb yesterday.. But even a good connection wouldn't change much, ok Montevergine I wouldn't have attacked with Qian in the middle of nowhere likely, but otherwise.. .the race is just fairly blocked, as could actually be expected. It starts later this week really. But even then blockage isn't unlikely. We'll see. Well, depending on the connection
General situation
GC: Right now for me Dodo the overwhelming favorite. Looked more open at the start, right now it looks like 2 weeks of routine, bringing the win home for BW. Unless he wants to much. But basically he is in complete control. He's basically virtually in rosa already. Another advantage, it's only virtually, so he can expect help too, from the real rosa. And then he has the strongest team in the high mountains, and one of the strongest climbers too. He can concentrate on controlling already basically.
Of course he still has adversaries that he has to control
Girard and Schrödinger right now the most dangerous. Girard will lose time in the TT in Milano (and Nevegal too) but so far is still there. One inatttention and he can turn the situation around. Schrödinger the same, he still has a few days where he can possibly gain time though, good reg, good team. But he needs to gain more time than Girard actually, because he'll likely lose more too in the TTs and Zoncolan, Gardeccia. But having different strengths he has the potential to win more on other days.
That's the 2 main adversaries.
Agger? Loser, biggest loser of the first 9 days IMO. Not so much resultwise, but the racing level. Biggest concern, Demuth missing full stages and 3/4 of other ones, that just won't do in the next 2 weeks. Unless he manages to be on more regularly, he will have big problems even ending on the podium. Plus he's already almost 30" behind Erdemann. Which he shouldn't have been at this point.
Then: The rest by know seem to be complete outsiders
Corvia, thanks to the TT and mountain skill is predestined to slowly slide down the GC. Fahrny because of the reg and mountain skill similar. That doesn't mean they are 100% out, a lucky punch somewhere... but it seems unlikely. Sveringsons problem is more the manager maybe. Focus on white, which is ok, and probably right, Fahrny might after all do that to soon if his manager realizes that nothing goes.. .might take a few more days... Sveringson seems there, a rather defensive race, hoping to gain the necessary seconds vs Fahrny-Nipp-Bellinckx. So for the GC fairly out. Mastrangelo has his reg problem and isolated, like Sveringson too btw. Eickendreyer-Stockdale.. Stockdale is losing time regularly right now, Eickendreyer 40" or so behind Erdemann. Difficult too. Especially since BW seems to be very focused on them. Almost too much it seems. They still can become dangerous, yes, but it almost needs 2 succesful time gains now, not one. In that respect BW is almost playing a dangerous game, by blocking Wizard completely out he might force him to just go crazy and risk all for nothing .nothing 99%, all 1%, but in a situation like this it could happen that the loser at the end is BW, you don't give me any freedom, now I don't care if Schrödinger is on my wheel and gains 1'... I need to get you out of your control mode, make you attack, open the race, otherwise I have no chance. At least that's what the ape would do if he had any reg sooner or later. Get another virtual rosa, one that can't concentrate on poor little Wizard with his 85-84 combi, but has to defend from BW, 88-86-81... Forgot anybody? Anyway, right now it looks to be ERDEMANN with Girard and Schrödinger the main challengers. They share 90% of the chances IMO, with BW having 50% or even more.
Mountain: Schrödinger right now, but the favorite now Mastrangelo. He with his reg really could have problems to go for the GC, it's stages and green. Schrödinger has to go for rosa and red now. Spiroux and an Allagencombi the challengers from the non-climbers for the moment, maybe some more will be added later, a Schmalzbrot or so, who knows. Or Erdemann/Girard depending on how many points they automatically. OR Agger if he concentrates on it.
Points: Putz, Schrödinger, Pandev right now, favorite IMO 1 Putz, 2 Pandev. Schrödinger wil get some points in the mountain arrivals, yes, but normally Pandev-PUtz should just get more in the other stages. Plus as long as Schrödinger is the nr 1 challenger, and for me right now he is, more than Girard, he will have to concentrate on rosa.
Youth: Fahrny-Sveringson-Bellinckx-Nipp now. Nipp not out, but for the moment he is in search of cult status it seems, attacking in hopeless situations, trying to lose time even? That could play in his favor later, when he can be let go, to steal bonifications and the stage victory later, because for rosa he simply isn't a danger right now. Bellinckx has the disadvante of being isolated, more than Nipp who can work with Putz-Schmalzbrot, and the weakest in the mountains. Unlikely. Fahrny right now the favorite, depending on further ape plans as well though, not really sure I want to ride for white, ended up doing it mostly the last days, nothing else to do at all... might continue like that, but a stage win is still the more important goal.Doesn't look too likely though. Sveringson with more mountain, less TT the biggest challenger, isolated though, if Urganov is put at Fahrnys disposal 100% the 19" now, plus some seconds more normallly in the final TT, 2 points, so another roughly 20", might be enough already. But will see, the training important for sure. The reg would speak for Sveringson though.
Team: Mathe thanks to the escpae in front now, then Wizard, BW, Owl. Will be between BW and ... Allagen. Most likely BW. Allagen will be in every escape, hoping to win more time, but will lose time in the mountain stages, lots of it likely. The rest... Mathe depends on the quest for rosa, with Heuser he has a good 3 guy, will he and Rondeau have to ride? If not, he might beat BW, if BW has to ride. We'll see, nobody (except Allagen I think) for the moment really seems to care.
yeah, 3 jerseys, 1 stage, damn, i like the giro 
) and can't see a Giro stream either... bah. And tomorrow not even a stage, bah.
