The race: My favorites: Voinea, Petit. Depending a bit on the form, but both Voinea and Petit usually need to have 100 form here, Branco unclear, 91 would be my guess since LBL is still coming... chances too, but not more than Voinea and Petit... Then, surprisingly for me TVE rides for Frick... that's ok as a second option I think, but with no sprint and the decisive part very hilly.... it's almost impossible for him to drop the 70-80, there. Petit on the other hand one of the strongest on the Muur and Bosberg... Ok, changes things, Voinea vs Branco now... or a small group of 70-80 behind... Hard race, the "pavé siebs" followed by "hill siebs"... my brillant leader Philipp with 62 mountains and 72,7 pavé risks being dropped in both places and was dropped in both places... "kämpfen/tout donner" no until the Muur... can't afford to lose energy before. What I didn't like is that I had to use all my co-leaders, Nedelcu-Duculescu (ok ok, actually he helped early and never rode.. but should not have helped one time and stay in front longer like that) and Thomas had to work early, in retrospect there was no need for Thomas, since the "pavégroup" got back to the " 70-80 group" just before the Muur..could have waited for them... So.. from the Muur on Philipp alone basically. And the Muur decided the race. The 2 (+maybe Hansen of EPO) favorites lost the race there. Philipp with 62 mountains and 72,7 pavé stays on... that shows that the muur was just ridden to slowly, Support riders with not that much energy keeping the group together, so if not even Philipp is dropped, of course nobody except the dead ones like Thomas will suffer. Salzgruber who already worked a bit, Santeris as well I think etc. in tempo.. perfect for me. And very bad for their leaders, the bosberg will sieb much less, a big group over the Muur means a big group over the Bosberg, which means 10 Km masstempo in the back... What they really needed to do there was destroy the group.. destroy unity of all those with 55-64 sprint with chances in the sprint. Instead they helped exactly those riders by keeping the group intact. How to destroy the group. A sieb. Take the risk and put in Voinea, or Hansen or Branco in tempo that one km. And you won't only get rid of Philipp (who used his "give it all" there) but of a LOT of other riders. Who will then not be all together and organized but alone or in small groups.. Do you get rid of everybody? Probably not, but maybe yes, in the 3 Muurs I saw nobody tried it... it was all either attacks, hopeless unless you are alone in tempo and nobody else has the brains to go in too or control. But feeling, no numbers... A Thomas G. as a leader... I hope he manages to hang on.. but I'm not sure. A Thomas with only 72 mountain? I'm very afraid of Branco in tempo at the Muur. A 72-75 (mountain-pavé) ok... maybe.. don't know.. 75-72 the same.. but most of the group had less. No guarantee, but I certainly would have tried and think that you would have dropped people like Feet, Jones, Fuglsang, Vanko, Epeho, Hofstad, Vilafuerte, VandenAkker etc and certainly all the support riders. Maybe somebody like Vanko who obviously had 100 form (wouldn't have retired otherwise) can manage to hang on.. maybe... Vanko with 72-72,7, becomes a 74-74,7.. but then Voinea with 100 form is a 75-80,3 and he should be as fit as Vanko.. .Anyway, take the risk and make tempo with the leader. Don't think you can drop everybody, if Branco goes Voinea, Hansen will be there, maybe a Clausen with 74,9 pavé too, I don't know.. but even if... THEN you have the bosberg for the attack And there no Clausen can follow. Of course, he'll be in tempo and limit the damage, but then he will have to get you back.. I mean, you saw how much time you got there... don't remember exactly who was in tempo actually, but you got a lot of time. Sieb at the Muur and that 25 peloton that got you back doesn't exist. It's a much smaller one and it's probably further back. With Salzgruber/Santeratempo you controlled when you didn't need control. Ok, if there was a 75 sprinter, clearly the strongest, then ok, keep him in the group so that the peloton won't work together, but nothing like that was there, so just take the risk of increasing the chances of Voinea/Hansen/Branco, whichever of the 2 is not yours... your increasing your own as well...
Then the Bosbergattack, got lots of time, very very difficult position for Voinea then... how much work? I thought his help in the -1 was ok... he was close to Branco in the Bosberg.. lost only one second, so probably Branco has no form or 91, Voinea "only" 6 less... help ok, how much, I wouldn't konw either.. .worst situation to be in... Brancos situation much easier, just ride. get help in the downhill but stay in, and ride... didn't see everything there, was busy being pissed off at the rest in the peloton
Since nobody wanted to work at first... ok, Philipp the strongest sprinter, 64. And probably good form, ok ok 100, so 66 although in the heat of the battle most probably won't take that into consideration... but Philipp was in tempo. Bosberg already, then the downhill, then finally managed to get Feet into tempo, despite Radlers question "why me?" he went in. Correct, the rest... waiting...bah.. if my leader rides, at least your number 2 could help... but no.. grrr... so Roby out and not in anymore.. ended up being the second strongest of the sprinters going from 50, but if I had gotten help from the nr 2... Bergwerk, Erkrath (ok, Vanko had attacked and followed already, didn't see that yesterday..), I probably would have stayed in another 2 km with them and without the leaders... but no... probably ended up being stronger the way it worked out... Sprint. lottery, follow Clausen, without thinking too much actually.. he goes at 50, Jones early, others to... place nr 8. Lottery of course, but my only chance to win. At first slightly pissed of at not having taken the wheel of Fuglsang who went early, and I should have known it... but after a few minutes, no actually Clausen was exactly the wheel I needed. If Clausen is on me, he beats me he was the strongest, not that I really thought about that stuff before but ... so Clausen, good choice. Enjoyed the race, was very lucky to have a chance to fight for the win in the end though... But happy with my race too.. leader Philipp really my only rider who can win, Thomas can be a very likely top 15 rider, even Top 5-10 depending on the race, but with his sprint really not somebody who can win it. Philipp can be anything from nr 1 to number 30 as a leader.. took the risk, ran with it, it almost worked... actually a bit proud to have been in the fight with a 62-82 with 72,7 pavé. OK, normally shouldn't happen, I profited from the way too soft Muur, with a tough Muur it will be place 20-25 probably..but hey...let me have my small reasons to be proud too...
Result:
01. 00:00:00 Roy Jones (Onkel-Eddy)
02. 00:00:00 Ignacio Castillo (Los Galacticos)
03. 00:00:00 Marcel Salzgruber (Adler)
04. 00:00:00 Scott Hansen (Team EPO)
05. 00:00:00 EmilSander Hofland (Demuth)
06. 00:00:00 Manuel Clausen (Wizards Cycling)
07. 00:00:00 Jacob Fuglsang (VC Aywaille)
08. 00:00:00 Philipp Guggisberg (Robyklebt)
09. 00:00:00 Anthony Colby (bergwerk)
10. 00:00:00 Pete Feet (Radler)
Update for the afternoon classification later.
Jan Vermaart 49-86-79-51-67, 83 Pavé
Basil Broucek 73-81-77-50-43, 73 Pavé
Manuel Clausen 72-83-63-46-63, 74 Pavé
André Katchono 50-88-58-52-52, 77 Pavé
Nicolas LaCroix 55-85-73-53-55, 80 Pavé
Alfons Ulminger 48-74-50-61-57, 68 Pavé