December Tour 25, La Ruta Azteca 14h

[Robyklebt]

Nothing much to do in the race, so I'll try to amuse myself in the forum at least.

Stage winners were decided today by me in the chat already:

1 Delpierre 2 Buccarini 3 Bologo 4 Grala 5 Crissaegrim 6 MillerUibo 7 Urbanek 8 MillerUibo 9 Karatay 10 Bay 11 Liiv 12 Davis 13 Bougault

GC wasn't in the mood to think so far, but ok, let's do it now. FL style, all wrong!
Grala will win lots of time in the TT and on the pavé stage. While his pavé is not brilliant, it's enough to drop everybody else. Davis, Bugatti, with 66 and a similar flat team should be closest, probably he will be dropped late, the rest could be dropped rather early already. Then a lot depends how the stage favorite, sure winner, Gipfel rides it. Does he ride with Tukh early for his 7th place in the GC or does he wait and only do enough to collect his win at the end? Anyway, Grala should have around 6' to L's 2 climbers in the TT and pavé stage, my guess is not enough to get back in the mountain stages, even if the lack of a good puller could hurt Grala there. Problem is also Davis for L. Looks good to get a chunk of time out of L tomorrow too, then hard to drop, will hang on the L train in the mountains, thus making him slower, with the huge risk of doing the work, but not collecting the GC reward L normally will be reluctant to ride up the mountains full power. L's leader. Urbanek might make more sense. Slightly more reg, more pavé, more sprint, less mountain, but younger. And Crissaegrim has a better chance to drop Davis by tempo, or at least make him fight a lot. But we'll see how he rides it. Davis, again, he looks good, if he finds the right amount of collaboration, have L do climbing work, but help whenever possible, have his classics ahead of Grala on some stages and using them for Davis... actually not bad chances. But overall would say Grala. Liiv and Sporgel really no chance already, but ok, let's give them 3 stars. Ah no, 2 is enough, Liiv is fine, but it's going with L and Davis in the mountains, and be beaten by them in the TT, and in GC. and only 1 for Sporgel, reg, flat, no chance.
Same for Svennson, 66 TT excellent, lots of reg, excellent, will lose tons and tons in the pavé stage. Without that he would actually have an actual chance, should be 2' something back from the TT, win back a bit of time on each mountain.. hard, but not completely impossible. 77 vs 73, maybe on some stage ride with Lafuente in between GC groups... but the pavé will just kill him I fear. Lafuente is mostly there so that I have one of my riders somewhere.

***** Grala
**** Davis, Urbanek
*** Crissaegrim,
**Liiv,
* Sporgel, Svennson, Lafuente

Not much amusement so far, so I play teamtoto.

But only 20 transfers possible, price of course the rider value, we start with 10 millions.
donkey buy MillerUibo $2,589,639, Delpierre $2,446,128 Goossens $1,519,027, Toulet $1,461,229 and Ganambarr $1,511,063. 15 transfers left, Buccarini too expensive, hm, maybe drop somebody and buy him instead...

[Gipfelstuermer]

Hesitated to inscribe here for various reasons but after the designers put a lot of effort into the competition, the race deserves to see many teams participating. Second half of December offers many interesting one day races then. Good luck and have a nice race.

[Tukhtahuaev]

Still feels a bit weird to go to this tour without a climber or sprinter, but fun to experiment with rider types I haven't used before.

Would mostly agree with the favo check. On paper the long ITT and the pavé stage should favor Grala a lot. I guess tomorrow we'll know a lot more. No clue how much time I can actually gain there

[Nomorelulz]

Will be an interesting tour, especially with Tukh unexpectedly riding without any climbers. I agree with the favos due to the pave stage, bit weird to have such hard pave though, makes it more interesting I guess. Davis also with lots of potential here. Fun to ride a long tour again.

Looking forward to the next 2 weeks with you guys.

[Bugatti]

Thanks Donkey for creating this post.
I'm also looking forward to today's stage with great anticipation and am excited to see what happens over the next two weeks.
Tuk is in the GC position as always, but this time with a completely new type of rider. This opens up many possibilities.
L RSV has a very good team and many opportunities in the mountainous regions. If he has a clear captain, many things are possible, even against Tuk.
Davis, as a candidate right between Tuk and L RSV, will of course try to go with the flow everywhere to finish as far ahead as possible.

[Robyklebt]

GC, Bugatti and Tukh collaboration for a long time, longer than I expected actually, so L and Liiv are back 3'12". Lafuente with the expected debacle over 6'. Beaten by Svensson was unexpected though, but together from the first sieb, later after Lafuente did 2 km tempo (for nothing finally) behind. Brrr. Donkey seems to have expected 1'30" to 2' for L here, the early and good collaboration between Tukh and Bugatti made it more. Also probably faster for L if he doesn't drop almost all from the start, but does something like I did with Onkelinx. But not the perfect flat team for him, hadn't really realized that before.

Collaboration in front made sense. Somehow yes, but somehow for Bugatti not. To win it, he needs L I think, but what interest does L now have that he is so far back that he really can't realistically hope to overtake Davis? In a way for Bugatti a smaller advantage for himself over L's duo could have been more advantageous later on in the race. But we'll see how it develops, L will certainly try to get the mountain stages, but time gain really only if Bugatti fully rides together with him from the start, while L's leader relaxes longer.. or something like that. Otherwise makes little sense for L?

STage, Buccarini first favorite, Cramer second it seemed, I thought Ganambarr... in the end it's Cramer that wins it. Easy day for Gipfel and me in regards to stage, do nothing all day, wake up in the end. First sieb by Tukh, then probably Sut should have ridden, Ousland then tried when Gipfel didn't, but was too late. All back.. probably riding there with Sut would have been enough to give Buccarini the win? 6" ahead, 7" since it was Piskun that then rode. With 2 km Sut probably the Buccarini group goes into 3*** 5*** climb with over 10" advantage... Then enough for the small group to go through I suppose. Then probably Buccarini has it, but was afraid of investing too much it seems. In 4 man sprint which is what would have happened, he has to hang on Cramer then, Buccarini is pretty sure to be stronger than Ganambarr. 80-20 or so? Ganambarr getting the moment to go early maybe enough..but when is that? Ok maybe 70-25-5 with 5 for Cramer there too, since Sut would have been pretty tired by the end. Donkey mistake too in the end, like everybody off Cramer in the last km. But since itw as only Ousland, doesn't change much I fear, he would lose the sprint most likely. But should have put Ousland and Lanfredini in tempo. Seeing Sut in, I thought I rather save my train some energy... stupid. Basically same mistake as Gipfel earlier. Gipfel here on Ganambarr but in tempo would maybe have made sense too (but much less sure than with the 2 other Donkey theories here) Ganambarr did covering tempo twice too, never got into tempo, fought, which Gipfel could guess I guess... More energy Buccarini, hang on me, go at 150 win, or wait till 50 most likely win... Think Buccarini was quite a bit stronger at the end, 1 km tempo and hanging on me would somehow have made sense too? He knows I won't do a trick sprint, a train seemed likely (but was on Buccarini until the last km and finally decided then, in the last 2 km basically I think)and if not, no other train really seemed a danger. But well, mostly there the Donkey should have tried with his 2 heros.

Tukh complained about his riding in the last pavé sector, looking at it in the replay... yeah... Piskun dropped, Taiwia helping him, Grala in front.. Once before Piskun 1" behind Grala, Taiwia with Grala, Piskun riding, yeah, looks funny and could be done better, but ok, it's seconds. First time probably more costly, guess Taiwia would have been 2-3" faster without having Grala fight. Second time though probably irrelevant? Grala was going to be dropped anyway, then Taiwia instead of coming from the back, just drop with him. But looked funny in the replay.

GC, Grala-Davis probably closer than expected, but with the TT coming should be close to 5' then? Probably enough. As Tukh probably I would want a bit more, always more better to feel safe.

Stage, Donkey with a good team result, like that, was a good chance to win actually, but yeah, didn't, bad Donks. Thought Ganambarr had chances today, but expected a smaller group in the end, earlier fight between B+T. It was basically a battle at the first sector, then nothing until the last, just riding. Ousland gets white for a day, not sure if it's worth investing a helper for him to keep it tomorrow though... Vigni needs to be helped to get fit for the TT! Lafuente! Lüthi for his outside chance tomorrow. Getting to like this now, a second place, feels like paradise!

Still, remain of the opinion that I could very well do without these pavé stages, you more or less know exactly what will happen (ok, 1' off in time difference, Lafuente behind Svensson unexpected, Davis closer to Grala than expected, but the big picture was very predictable) it doesn't open up the races, it closes them down if anything.

[Tukhtahuaev]

Gap to the climbers a lot bigger than I expected thanks to an underwhelming flat team from L RSV. He probably also could have ridden it better. At first I thought the climbers would come back after the first pavé section, but the gap just kept growing. Maybe better to let Muténgéné fall back early and catch up to the field again. A fit Muténgéné in the end doesn't even help that much, because you are limited by your climbers anyway.

Gc most likely now a battle between Grala and Davis, with a very big advantage for Grala, who probably has the stronger support.

[drei.zehn]

GC, Grala-Davis probably closer than expected, but with the TT coming should be close to 5' then? Probably enough. As Tukh probably I would want a bit more, always more better to feel safe.

After the ITT it should be 6:30 maybe even 7 minutes

[Tukhtahuaev]

Quite boring day with an expected winner today. Only way for me to beat Bologo would have been no strong sieb on the final climb or L RSV not continuing after.
Grala taking over yellow and hopefully not giving it away until the end. Tomorrow most likely also getting green, but that is probably going to a different rider in the end.

[Robyklebt]

GC, Grala-Davis probably closer than expected, but with the TT coming should be close to 5' then? Probably enough. As Tukh probably I would want a bit more, always more better to feel safe.

After the ITT it should be 6:30 maybe even 7 minutes

5'01"

[drei.zehn]

GC, Grala-Davis probably closer than expected, but with the TT coming should be close to 5' then? Probably enough. As Tukh probably I would want a bit more, always more better to feel safe.

After the ITT it should be 6:30 maybe even 7 minutes

5'01"

I am a bit surprised. Grala a minute behind expected advantage against Davis and this Schnuggi guy for example. So Tuk seems to be pretty fresh tomorrow.

[Robyklebt]

Not much happening, well, others winning stages, me not, so nothing interesting.
3-4 in my predictions.
Interesting stage yesterday, on paper at least, online game, so wasn't all that interesting finally. Or maybe just for me since I had nothing to do. Still interesting, but not as much as it could have been... The expected sieb and then chase. In front L and Bugatti and Pantani work, Liiv gets the win, good. He was right not to work. Bugatti reluctantly did, for his GC, he had to as well. L for stage. Same for Pantani. 24" gained, not a hell of a lot, but if he wants a chance in GC he has to take every second. Not every point for green, as he seems more eager to do. Yesterday the collaboration was pretty guaranteed in this field, Sporgel, Urbanek, Crissaegrim and Davis all interest to ride, Liiv if they had asked at some point maybe would have joined. In the second week on the mountain stages the collaboration is less likely to work that well though. L simply is too far back, not much interest for him to ride hard, get 3rd in GC, ok, but for the rest, doesn't really matter if he wins 1' or 10" to Grala

Donkey in the meantime worried about his top 10, but ok, the big time gains vs the classic hopefully coming later this week. In the meantime plotting to try to get a win somewhere... tomorrow sprint, we're ready!

[Tukhtahuaev]

Very happy Tukh now. Less time loss than I first feared on stage 7. Then keeping the sprinters behind on stage 8 to give Grala some chances for green. With a bit more luck could have even been a win here, but even this is much better than I thought was realistic

[Robyklebt]

Donkey wins, Donkey wins!
Kebede. Unexpected, even if of course this was the only stage I thought I had outside chances. Then everything worked perfectly for me. L offline at first bad, but on the other hand... his 85 sprinter looked hard to beat. So in the end lucky. Then Tukh helping a lot, Kebede already is knocking at his teambus' door, asking to get a contract there, yes, he benefited too, points jersey now looks possible, small chance for stage, not 0, but Kebede the better one. The help was not unexpected, hoped for it, points jersey. But biggest + was the way it was ridden in the back. Or more specifically Bugatti, what was that? Half pissing me off, but only half, the other half is smiling at the unexpected win. Ah, Bugatti's riding wasn't all that unexpected though, he already showed a certain reluctance to work in the chase after a sieb earlier in the race once. So hoped a bit for a repetition of that, was served. Why not just drop Christie early and ride? In front Ousland, some little Lüthi, more Ousland, he rode an rode, slower and slower, first with Piskun, then with Nebyla. Advantage up to 50" or close, once a bit down, when Gardiner, train man rode, then up again when Nebyla went in. NoMoreLulz helped, good, but nobody else... ok, others had interest, but understand not riding if Bugatti keeps an 84 flat guy in front. And a 89... 89 ok, threaten the attack. But Christie? Just drop him, at the latest after 84. Or keep Somda back with his 65 reg. He tried to come back with him alone after the first sieb, failed by 1", then rode up leaving Miller behind on the 6 of the 3 early siebkm. 5 in front, 4 in the back, sends the wrong signal too, just Davis, Bolongo and Pinder in front... Somda rides, Christie waits until after the last 6... and we're caught in front, pretty sure. Show the way and ride, don't wait for others to join. Riding with Gardiner ok, sends a signal that the train won't be there, that it's a pretty open sprint (all on Toulet? Or a Schnuggi 2 man train?), but wasn't even necessary, with Gipfel off like L, with NoMoreLulz already riding, just dropping, showing intent and conviction to ride... should be enough. Also again, he had most to ride for. Green. And until he used Gardiner stage favorite.
But ok... so he tries without those. But then...137 the last 6, in the back his 83 goes in, Gipfel joins, a bit later Pantani joins, advantage down to 23" when the Donkey finally realizes neither Ousland (who rode around 40km...) not Lüthi were good enough, so Lanfredini finally in. Joined by Mamatkhodzhaev. Advantage back up to 30", where the 2 then keep it vs 5 in the back, little hill, up to 34, then 38" and here Bugatti finally drops Christie. At km 159. 22 km after the last siebkm. Way too late, way too late. Back down to 29" at 169 where NoMoreLulz drops Asetov. At km 173 he brought it down to 19" and Pinder drops. Which allows Onkelinx to ride. At this point keeping Pinder with his 89 ahead made more sense. Attack, hang on Karatay or Ganambarr or Buccarini, Karatay safest, with Bologo and even if Pinder isn't fit, but he really should be at least fittish, Bologo and Pinder should be helped there... Like this.. Onkelinx is fit too, first km 4" lost, next km Onkelinx alone too, only 1". Ok, Onkelinx probably fitter then? Or much better form? Pinder finally brought it down to 6", Onkelinx losing 2" or 1".. To me that's a huge failure by Bugatti. Drop Christie earlier. Pinder if dropped, earlier too, it's not like I could use Onkelinx from 15 km out with other 84-83 guys there. Or not drop, even if only to scare me.

Anyway, shouldn't complain too much, after all I profited from that, but a bit is ok, would have been so easy to catch us, without sacrificing Gardiner too, by just dropping early enough. And then ride like hell. The earlier the better, by waiting you then fight against the other fit guys in front, get such groups early, maybe after 137, sieb, but even if before, then have Pinder with Miller and ride up, before waiting for the other sprinters.

Anyway, Donkey won, everybody regretting it already since we now get an endless Donks-post...

Donks happy, wasn't sure to bring Kebede, seemed rather pointless, no real stage for him, thanks to Tukh (and Bugatti) we found one! Stage win, December Tour a success, now we want Lafuente in the top 10 somehow!