Giro

[Cerro Torre RT]

looking at this stage, i have to say i think the guy to beat is Basso now. It was a fascinating way of Liquigas today to compansate for his weak downhill skills. Afterwards he was just sitting at the wheel of Scarponi and Evans and saved a lot of power, while they need to chase Nibali who for sure showed up big today. But i don't think that was his way to the Giro win but open the door for Basso. Now we have final climbs everywhere, downhill doesn't play a big role anymore. I expect nothing else but a win with a quite big advantage (some like a minute) by Basso tomorrow. Richie Porte will fall off completly as i think today he showed that Zoncolan will just be too hard for him. The only chance for the other guys is that Liquigas has to start of early in order to crate advantage on Arroyo. But looking at them today, they were the best team but didn't even have to ride harder than the others, due to their good tactics. I think tomorrow they will take over again and make a big step towards the Giro win this year.

[iBanesto]

I think they took a big risk today. I wasn't sure if Basso could even stay with Evans downhill and he was in trouble for a moment when the roads were wet. Worse case was Basso ending up together with Vino and Scarponi+Evans catching Nibali before the finish. Could have happened, but didn't.

Basso winner tomorrow? No way. No. I can't even imagine that.

[Cerro Torre RT]

Taking over a race and looking to win some time is allways a risk, and as I didn't know Evans and Scarponi to be great downhill riders, it was a takeable one. They allways try to tell me Evans would be great in that due to he is a mountainbiker, but i really never saw that from him. So obvioulsy it is possible mountainbikers are not that good at a downhill having a racebike under there ass, and i really think there is some kind a difference in between. So i did expect Basso to be able to stay with them, they are not a threat like the best.

And for tomorrow, ok it's possible too that Basso falls back in his terribly passive mode he showed in this Giro until know again. Who is your guy for tomorrow? I don't mean nesessary for the stage win but for the first of the favourites.

[Luna]

It's time for Carlos, I guess.

EDIT:

Evans lost contact with Vincenzo Nibali, Ivan Basso and Michele Scarponi towards the top of the Monte Grappa but got back to Basso and Scarponi on the descent. However he described the way he rode downhill as “a disgrace”

[iBanesto]

Tomorrow: By what I've seen today and in the past week I have to go with Scarponi.

Evans downhill: I remember the downhill from the Bonnette in the 08 TdF where Evans was able to keep up with Sanchez. But so could the Schlecks and Sastre. I wouldn't call Evans an excellent downhiller, but he hasn't shown any weakness there unlike Basso, Leipheimer, Menchov,...

[Luna]

Tomorrow: By what I've seen today and in the past week I have to go with Scarponi.

Very strange development he took. First beeing a good baroudeur with qualities for some classics. Then becoming an irresistible puncheur, unable to be caught by back by anybody once he has a small gap. Subsequently beeing caught doped. Confessing, beeing amnestied, and coming back as a climber and gt rider who's able to stay with the big guns in the big mountains...

[iBanesto]

Zoncolan 2007:

1.Simoni
...
5.Cunego +37
...
11.Nibali +2:08
...
27.Arroyo +4:26
...
38.Pinotti +6:58

Just to get an idea of the gaps possible tomorrow.

Zoncolan 2003:

1.Simoni
...
11.Scarponi +1:45
...
28.Cunego +5:23

Names are not chosen randomly.

[Cerro Torre RT]

I would have called that gap for Basso tomorrow for any somehow mountain finish, not only for Zoncolan. Just becaus he was able to relax the last 20 km today and looked quite strong on the climb. Plus he has a team. But if he stayes passive or Nibali takes the first attack of those 2, as usual, it might be Nibali to take it. But I expect him to be stronger than Scarponi, due to he didn't work that much today.

And i agree with you, Evans didn't show problems at downhills, but too he never shook somebody of by himself. As he didn't today. He is an avarage dowhhill rider, and to get away you have to be quite far above that.

[Lizard]

As I expected... either Evans or Basso will do it... Basso made it, Evans second... this mountain just showed who´s the real specialist for climbing, Evans more a rider type like Valverde, Basso getting stronger and stronger with steeper climbs. But it´s not over now.... Two time trials, two mountain tops... but I guess Basso will make it before Evans, argh!

[Bear]

Yap, great performance of Basso today. The last 3km were really strong, more than one minute against Evans. But its not over yet. Basso will have his problems as well (?). I think Evans is more the allround type of rider than Basso. We will see what happens. I am still with Evans for the maglia rosa. On Tuesday the mountain time trial seems to be a good opportunity for Evans to gain some time. But who knows. Scarponi and Sastre came back today and just lose some seconds to Evans. The fight for the stage wins is open too.

What I was really impressed about were the fans. Thousands of people on the hill and at the road. Must be a great feeling to ride the last meters through this bunch of people.

[iBanesto]

Hats off Cerro, it happened just like you called it.
Basso was impressive, but it's not a good result in terms of suspense. If he goes on like that he will gain more time on Tuesday and if he doesn't have a bad day the race is pretty much over.

[Lizard]

I think Basso or Nibali will win the mountain time trial, Evans strongest TT of the favourites I´d say, but mountain TT? Basso is a fine time trialist aswell, Nibali of course very strong. And where should Evans gain the time if not in the TT? In the mountains Basso will beat him up. But of course "my heart´s beating" for Evans

[Bear]

I like to read Evans diary every day. Here are some quotes:

Stage 14:

207km with the 'Monte Grappa' near the finish.....yes THAT Grappa.... As usual, a fast start until the break finally went; but today, an even faster run into the climb. Some 45km/h+ average speed for 125k. A mad rush to get the bottom of the climb in a good position as Luquigas showed their muscle. Ouch: four riders passed over the top. Nibali slipped away on the descent, I descended like a bus (I.e. terribly) and ended up chasing with Scarpone for the last 15km with Basso on the wheel. Nibali deserverly took the stage win.

If today's stage results is any indication of what is to come, there is a lot of changes yet to be made. On paper, this is one of the 'easier' mountain stages....

Interesting facts and hilarious self-mockery by the Australian

Stage 15:

Zoncolan is one hard climb! Like a 'Mur' in Flanders I suppose.....but for 7km....

Liquigas did the majority of the work to deliver Basso to base of what is maybe not the steepest, but definitely the longest steep climb I have ever done anywhere. And their work paid off. Basso certainly was the strongest on a day where not much else counted. Well a few 'spinge's' (pushes) don't go astray on a really steep one like that. "Don't push him, he's a foreigner" I heard a spectator yell. Not quite as ridiculous as one Italian rider in my team mates group: "Stop pushing the foreigners!" he yells at the spectators.

On a more serious note, we can get time penalties for being pushed, so it's certainly not in the GC rider's interest to be pushed. With the gearing, all the serious guys rode 'compact' crank sets, usually a 34 in front from what saw. I had a bit of trouble with the large spacing between the gears. Not something that is usually a problem climbing. With yesterday's effort in the legs, I rode a big larger gear than preferred. Not the right way, but when it's the only way..... Second for me today.

My compliments to Basso and Liquigas. And special mention to Richie Porte who is STILL second on GC. Very very good for a young and good bloke.

Also some facts which are quite interesting. Maybe he was just frustrated about his performance or some Italians are unfair fans?? (Tell us Aux ) I like this information about the gear and the large spacing Evans used at the Zoncolan. As I remember Basso used a lower gear with a higher cadence. At the steep climb it could make a difference. But I thought Evans uses a higher gear all the time (compared to Basso for example). For sure the physical and mental state on that day was the most important reason. But the gear/cadence thing is very absorbing, at least since the discussion of riding style between Ullrich and Armstrong.

[iBanesto]

Oh, a good result, better than expected. Important result from Evans, he's not beaten yet, but an even more important one from Nibali. If he had lost three minutes today Liquigas would have focused 100% on Basso. Now they still have that second option to spice up the race. Sastre, Vino and Scarponi are within range, but they need a big point. Cunego needs more than that, but hey, nobody expects anything from him. As you see, I'm more optimistic about this race again!

[Lizard]

I think in the end it will be the battle of Basso against Evans. Evans so strong today, Garzelli was to be expected... he´s a stronger climber than he showed at the Zoncolan. Sastre will have to fight for the podest, but a great comeback by him. I hope for Evans tomorrow, it´s a stage for him. Bit Garzelli will be strong there too, and who knows about Nibali and Sastre? Arroyo will keep Rosa for tomorrow, maybe even one other mountain stage. I hope for Evans to win the stage, but I guess it will be Garzelli again. Vinokourov will not get away I think, so I hope somehow Evans handles to get some bonus seconds and by that can come closer to Basso for a real hard fight on the last day man vs man.

[Rockstar Inc]

i'm still waiting for "the simoni stage"....

[Cerro Torre RT]

Simonis Stage may be tomorrow. I don't expect any GC Team to fokus on tomorrows stage. A relativly short climb in the end. Liquigas has already got their stage wins, they may be happy if time bonus goes elsewhere. Evans may be interested in it, but for real has no team (what group should that 4 guys get back)? Lampre is the question, they need to do something, and Simoni in a group is a quite propable (and not that bad) solution. If they don't get a good guy in the group, they have to chase, they can't afford to give away any more stages. Scarponis team i never saw to work, and don't really expect it. Garzelli is more likely to be in the group himself. Where we are speaking of the biggest danger for a group: Strong GC riders, as i don't expect Liquigas to let them go another time. But looking at the following weekend, i don't think many really dangerous guys will get in there.

So here the stronger mountain riders (on the paper) i expect in the group:

Garzelli
Simoni
Moncutie
Gerdemann (looking at his performance the last 2 stages, Liquigas may not fear him winning a lot of time, but this mountain is shorter, could be worth a try)
Cataldo
Efemkin

[iBanesto]

Before everythings over:

GC without Team Time Trial:

Arroyo
Basso +1:06
Scarponi +1:39
Evans +3:42
Nibali +4:03

Interesting to see, but then again you could have a GC without L'Aquila, or without the crosswind stages, or without the strade bianche crashes...

[Radunion]

Would have been an interesting stage on Saturday, as Liquigas had to attack again.

[Luna]

LIQ would have ridden differently if there hadn't been the ttt. I guess they would've won anyway.

[iBanesto]

Yes, different race then, Evans maglia rosa during the L'Aquila stage, BMC maybe less stupid than Astana/Liquigas back then, maybe no 13 minute group at all, maybe worse, who knows.

In the end it was a great Giro even though the GC didn't have any more upsets for us after the Zoncolan. There were many changes in the lead, Wiggins-Evans-Vino-Nibali-Vino-Porte-Arroyo-Basso, some really great stages like Montalcino, Asolo, Zoncolan and Aprica, thrilling breakaway winners like Pineau, Lloyd, Sörensen, Tschopp and of course Petrov in L'Aquila. Really good Giro, best Giro since 2005, but not better than 2005, because it lacked "il finale grande".

[Luna]

Yes, different race then, Evans maglia rosa during the L'Aquila stage, BMC maybe less stupid than Astana/Liquigas back then,

But they would have had only 5 riders to control the forming of the break^^ Would have been very difficult.


Very exciting Giro, in fact. But as well demanding. There was no day to miss out. Only for the Greipel stage there wasn't much need to hurry and follow the race.
I'm looking forward to the Tour, where you can take a break from watching and beeing involved all the time, on some days.