Giro

[iBanesto]

Should have made a comment, now everybody posts without comments.
Sastre is No 1 for me, last year he went into the Giro to see how it goes and take a stage here or there if the opportunity arises. This year, I think he is fully focussed on the Giro. He knows he can't beat Contador in the Tour, he's a realist, he knows he was a bit lucky when he won the Tour. This year he has the opportunity to win the Giro, because he is maybe the best climber in this field and the Giro features excessive climbing. He has the experience, he has the team, I hope he has the legs.
Evans and Vino are maybe the strongest allrounders in the Giro, both won a classic in the ardennes, so the form is super. They are super time trialists, but they can't really profit from that in this Giro. But both seem too weak in terms of extreme climbing. I don't see them winning a stage that finishes on the Zoncolan, I think they will be in trouble there and on the Mortirolo, Grappa,...
I really see them as sort of odd twin brothers, they have comparable advantages and weaknesses.
The three star Italian triple, Scarponi, Nibali, Basso. I don't think we will ever see the CSC-Basso again, that cyclist doesn't exist anymore. Good enough for Top 5 like last year, but I doubt significant improvement. Nibali is a dangerman and a question mark. How well prepared is he? If we see the Nibali from last years Tour and Dauphine then he will be the best Italian in this Giro. Strong downhiller, Monte Grappa...
Scarponi, well, he could go for another two or three stage wins, or go for GC. I hope for the latter. He is not a super climber, but very solid.
The two stars, the young hopefuls and the Katushas. Pozzovivo is almost a three star, he will be a Top 5 climber and I think he will win a stage somewhere. Unlike Sastre he has no super team to drag him through the TTT, that's a handicap. He will compete for the Top 5 anyways. Masciarelli was very strong in the 3rd week last year and had his best result on the toughest stage. He's made for this Giro. Turned 24 yesterday, happy birthday. Karpets and Caruso will be a strong duo, comparable to Basso/Nibali, just on a lower level. Karpets is clearly not made for this Giro.
The rest is - as always - very hard to predict. Caisse, who's their leader? Bruseghin, Uran, Arroyo? I'm just guessing Uran will be strongest. Moreno could be holding back a bit for the Tour, same for Gerdemann, Wiggins, Vandevelde, etc. I don't even mention them here. Cunego will go for stages, Simoni... I hope he won't embarass Lampre. Trofimov could be a surprise, Soerensen if he comes back fast enough after the broken collarbone. Moncoutie? Not for GC... I even doubt a stage win. Many other names out there, but they're very long shots for a Top 10.

[olmania]

Moncoutie? Not for GC... I even doubt a stage win.

You're right !
I put him, to put a french guy
Maybe for the red jersey, he likes it, we'll see.

[Robyklebt]

Agree on Masciarelli, his best result was in the only real mountain stage, the only stage with more than one tough climb, MOnte Petrano. This year there will be 3 of those, Zoncolan, Mortirolo and Tonale. His problem could be Garzelli though, who seems fairly confident. He doesn't clearly say that he wants to go for his second Giro win, he says no clearly defined goals, but first stages, then green, then well, last year one bad day, otherwise he could have been on the podium.... he certainly thinks about it. And on cicloweb I read that Masciarelli had a "difficult" spring.. so we'll see. But basically yes, it's a perfect Giro for him.
Scarponi said pretty clearly that this year he wants to go for the GC more, not just stages.
Basso? Benefit of the doubt. He came back last year after 2 years off, the first year maybe not easy.. he himself said after the Giro last year "before the Giro I never said I could win it, I had to see where I am". Ok, he added "now I can say that I will be able to win the vuelta".. .which didn't happen, but well.. The CSC Basso, no, we won't get him back. But something in between. And that could be enough. His toughest opponent? Sastre. clearly, not ****** for me because... 1) seems to have been in a "low" after the tour, only Catalunya as preparation. 2) well, ah, hope he wins, so I put Basso, so in case Sastre doesn't win and Basso does at least I can say I got that one right..
Nibali: Ok, I'm still in Pellizotti (who wouldn't have won, he's the opposite of Masciarelli, always, getting better, but hard stages with multiple climbs ALWAYS were a huge problem for him) and Valjavec (***) mode..actually yes, Nibali should go in.. for cunego but probably higher, at ***, for Pozzovivo who might turn out to be one of the best climbers, but he will lose too much time in the TTT already.. But then the question is if his preparation is good enough.. the goal was the Tour, California, bah, Leipheimer will win, that's it, send Nibali Amgen pays a nice starting fee, I'm sure, sounds good, a good name, ride as good as you can without giving 110% or being in really really good shape... for the Giro that's not enough of course.. but if he is in good form, yes.. could happen.
Wiggins, VdV, no chance, even if they targeted it (which they don't they are there for the Tour) Mortirolo, Zoncolan, that's too much for both of them.
Evans and Vino? Agree that both won't win, but don't see them as twins at all...
Moreno? See him as almost the biggest possible complete surprise (Masciarelli ok, except masciarelli)

Behind them a lot of riders that can enter the top 10, not only Uran, Trofimov (Roby doesn't believe in him at all though) Samoilau, Sörensen, but also riders nobody has mentioned yet, Capecchi, Gadret?, Jeannesson (being nice to the frenchies) De Greef (now to the belgians as well), Serpa, Jackson Rodriguez, Cataldo, Dan Martin, Possoni, Larsson.. (maybe even Porte, seems to be more than a TT specialist)

Olmania: I think Petacchi is more likely for the red jersey than Moncoutié...

[NoPikouze]

Sastre - Don't think he can reach his best level anymore, plus I saw some comments that this giro has less difficult climbs than last year (di luca says so, I dunno...)
Evans - Overall good, should be able to follow everywhere, at worst he will lose a couple of seconds on the hardest hill, but that wont be enough for sastre to beat him
Vino - Hard to say, could win some time on one of his attacks, but will probably lose some as well on another day... And 3 weeks might be long
Nibali - probably some improvement in the hills, will keep up longer with the favos, at least a top 5
Uran - Good season I think, fighting spirit, can be a (semi) surprise, and leader of his team
Basso - Same as last year, even if he wants better...
Scarponi - Very good but I predict an offday
Wiggins - Probably not at 100% but who knows
Cunego - I think a better Giro than other years, less pressure + increasing form
Simoni & Garzelli - Not good enough for gc. Bruseghin the same probably
Karpets - I dont really believe in him
Other top 10 riders, not much to say about... I hope Mollema does well in gc, but that's only me

[Robyklebt]

plus I saw some comments that this giro has less difficult climbs than last year (di luca says so, I dunno...)

You sure you didn't see Di Lucas comment about last years Giro?? Because if he really thinks so then he's probably the only one in the world who thinks so.

[NoPikouze]

Oh and by the way, last year I won 20 euros by betting on Menchov

Tour d'Italie
05/05/2010 - 12:07
Di Luca: "C'était pour moi"

Suspendu encore un an, Danilo Di Luca s'est exprimé sur le Giro 2010 qui part d'Amsterdam samedi. "Celui-là, j'aurais pu le gagner, a dit le dernier vainqueur italien (2007). Le parcours correspond bien à mes caractéristiques. Il n'est pas aussi dur que l'an dernier."
Le coureur a également donné son pronostic. "Je ne vois pas un Italien. Pour moi, ça se jouera entre Evans, Vinokourov et Sastre".

[olmania]

Olmania: I think Petacchi is more likely for the red jersey than Moncoutié...

I wanted to say mountain jersey
He won the 2last mountain jersey of the Vuelta, why not in the Giro !

[NoPikouze]

Moncoutié is usually good only at the end of the season. When the other cyclists dont reall compete anymore


Anyway, this Giro is for Sausages !
Mollema, Kruiswijk, Brown, Weening, Ardila, Flens, Kozontchuk, Stamsnijder, van Emden... for last year's winning team
Radioshack isnt there
Vacansoleil and Skil excluded
A couple of doping affairs coming
Sprints opposing McEwen vs Brown vs Forster

[Robyklebt]

Oh and by the way, last year I won 20 euros by betting on Menchov

Tour d'Italie
05/05/2010 - 12:07
Di Luca: "C'était pour moi"

Suspendu encore un an, Danilo Di Luca s'est exprimé sur le Giro 2010 qui part d'Amsterdam samedi. "Celui-là, j'aurais pu le gagner, a dit le dernier vainqueur italien (2007). Le parcours correspond bien à mes caractéristiques. Il n'est pas aussi dur que l'an dernier."
Le coureur a également donné son pronostic. "Je ne vois pas un Italien. Pour moi, ça se jouera entre Evans, Vinokourov et Sastre".

Ha, found an argument:

This is the english section, don't write french

But ok, strange...

[NoPikouze]

Well I dont know the roads by myself. But for di caca, it could be just because he's upset or disappointed or something like that. Pretty easy thing to talk when you cant ride!

And last year was really good for him imo, with those crazy little roads between houses, which usual gc riders probably hate

[iBanesto]

Nibali: It's starting to remind me of the beachboy story of 2008. When did Liquigas know that Zottl would be suspended? Certainly before the public was informed. Maybe Nibali is not as unprepared as we may think...

Sastre: He never performs well in the typical preparation races. He's obviously someone who compensates a lot through training. It's enough to be "there" in the 3rd week anyways.

Evans&Vino: Just look at their legs. Both have those fat weightlifter's legs.

[Rockstar Inc]

Sprints opposing McEwen vs Brown vs Forster

+Farrar+Greipel

[team fl]

According to Toni Nötzli (whoever), Cadel Evans is the favorite for this years' Giro, followed by Vinokourov. He sees also chances for Carlos Sastre, Christian Vandevelde, Waldimir Karpets and Bradley Wiggins. The Italian riders who may win the Giro are: Ivan Basso, Stefano Garzelli and Gilberto Simoni, although they seem to be a bit old these days. Other local favorits to mention: Vincenzo Nibali and Marzio Bruseghin.

I myself have no idea. Evans seems to have the Skills but not the Team. Vino perhaps, if he's not stopped by investigations . For the Italians it will be hard. Maybe Basso to mention first. But I would like to see the young ones to succed, like Nibali.

[iBanesto]

Crashfestival...

GC:

Evans
Vino +3
Nibali +8
Scarponi +19
Basso +21
Sastre +57
Masciarelli +1:24
Pozzovivo +1:34

Really bad start for some of the climbers.

[Luna]

Strange day. Felt like one crash every 2km...

[iBanesto]

Martin Kohler from BMC is a DNF today. We'll see how the other crash victims do tomorrow. BMC-1 is a bummer for Evan's TTT, that can easily be +30 seconds on wednesday.

[Rockstar Inc]

Greipel -.- too stupid to win or didn't i saw something important? my livestream was very bad

[iBanesto]

Oh boy, this is getting worse every day. I consider everyone in the 8 minute group out of GC, Masciarelli, Pozzovivo, Caruso, Uran... too many to name all of them.

Vino
Nibali +5
Garzelli +15
Scarponi +16
Karpets +17
Basso +18
Evans +43
Sastre +1:40

Mascia+Pozzo out, Karpets+Garzelli in. I'm not convinced by their chances, but I don't want to reduce my "inner circle" after just three days.
Sastre and Evans have plenty of work to do in the mountains.

[NoPikouze]

1 Kazachstan Alexandre Vinokourov Astana 10:07:18
4 Italië Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas +5
8 Duitsland Linus Gerdemann Milram +12
9 Italië Stefano Garzelli Acqua & Sapone +15
11 Italië Michele Scarponi Androni Giocattoli +16
12 Rusland Vladimir Karpets Katusha +17
14 Italië Ivan Basso Liquigas +18
24 Australië Cadel Evans BMC +43
|
|
112 Frankrijk John Gadret AG2R +9:13
131 Rusland Youri Trofimov Bbox - Bouygues +9:20
135 Italië Gilberto Simoni Lampre +9:24
143 Denemarken Chris Anker Sörensen Saxo Bank +9:28
145 Italië Domenico Pozzovivo Colnago - CSF +9:30
146 Italië Eros Capecchi Fuji +9:32
152 Italië Marzio Bruseghin Caisse d'Epargne +9:41
168 Italië Andrea Masciarelli Acqua & Sapone +10:50
178 Italië Filippo Pozzato Katusha +12:42
181 Frankrijk Arnold Jeannesson Caisse d'Epargne +13:02
189 Colombia Rigoberto Uran Caisse d'Epargne +16:02
190 Frankrijk David Moncoutié Cofidis +16:09


I guess for a couple of riders, the GC is over

[Lizard]

I like Sastre´s position now. If he stays out of the centre for the first two weeks he might be able to do the same trick like when he won the Tour. Maybe the others need to look for others and he can use it.. well, but still... go Cadel!!!

[iBanesto]

Oh, I just found something beautiful!

Trofeo Fast Team

1 TEAM SAXO BANK 30:22:06 0:00
...
19 BMC RACING TEAM 30:39:21 17:15
20 FOOTON - SERVETTO 30:41:23 19:17
21 COLNAGO - CSF INOX 30:45:44 23:38
22 COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 30:48:10 26:04

They don't even need mountains to suck!

[Luna]

Greipel -.- too stupid to win or didn't i saw something important? my livestream was very bad

Greipel wanted to let Goss take the stage win. Weylandt anticipated it and slipped into the gap, that Greipel left for Goss. That was what Weylandt said after the finish, according to cyclingnews.

[iBanesto]

BMC much better than I expected, they took almost a minute out of CSF and they still have the best split time.

[Bear]

Astana was broken into pieces... but I don't like the gestures of vino - his teammates were fighting.

The performance of Liquigas was impressive, I didn't expect that.

[iBanesto]

Nibali
Basso +13
Vino +33
Karpets +39
Evans +1:59
Sastre +2:13
Scarponi +2:35
Garzelli +2:49