Tour de France predictions

[Falcor CC]

What does the R4F community think? Will do a new poll after the Dauphine!

[Tukhtahuaev]

There really is no competition for Pogacar as long as he stays healthy

[Falcor CC]

I'm honestly surprised he's up 6-0 so far here. He was the favorite in the 2 editions Jonas won too... I'm leaning Pogi but it's still close, especially considering Pogi's form peak so early in the season

[TDM_Luxembourg]

Who voted for another one and for who?

[Hansa]

Pogacar the clear favorite for me, only Jonas i give realistic chances beating him (i still voted Jonas)

[Hoefs Cycling Team]

I hope Vingegaard, but i think Pogacar (i voted Pogacar)

[drei.zehn]

Nobody hopes for Vingegaard

[Falcor CC]

I hope Felix Gall wins, that guy rides his bike so sexy

[bergwerk cycling]

Nobody hopes for Vingegaard

[Chemnitz Pro Cycling Team]

I hope Roglic but since he can't ride a tour without falling down it will be Pogi

[TDM_Luxembourg]

I hope Roglic but since he can't ride a tour without falling down it will be Pogi

True

[ECS Cycling]

My heart tells me Jonas, head tells me Pogi. Nobody else has a chance. I'll need to see both their form in Dauphine before I decide.

[TDM_Luxembourg]

I thought, We will get a second chance after Dauphine

[Falcor CC]

Didn't you ask to wait until after Suisse?

Felix Gall gonna win there first so I can justify my prediction for him

[drei.zehn]

My heart tells me Jonas…

Whats wrong with you? ;D Nobody picks Jonas over Tadej because he likes him more…

[Hansa]

My heart tells me Jonas…

Whats wrong with you? ;D Nobody picks Jonas over Tadej because he likes him more…

Who doesnt like Jonas more than Tadej????

[TDM_Luxembourg]

@Falcor CC the second poll despawned

[Falcor CC]

Still there for me (skill issue on your behalf)

[Ghostly]

I’m curious how you usually approach predictions for the Tour de France. Do you tend to follow the race closely as a discipline in itself, or is it more of a casual interest during the three weeks?
Also, do you rely on any kind of prediction system or structured analysis, or is it mostly based on experience, form, and race intuition? With so many variables — weather, team tactics, stages, crashes — it feels very different from predicting single-day events.
Interested to hear how others here read the Tour and whether you use specific methods or just follow the flow of the race.